United States: Water surplus in MI, IL, IN, NY, PA, TN

18 November 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending July 2022 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in a broad column from the intersection of Wyoming and Nebraska through Colorado, New Mexico, the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, West Texas, and the Rio Grande region.

Deficits are also forecast in Arizona, primarily in the west. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Southern California. In the Pacific Northwest, deficits are forecast in the Central Cascades. Idaho can expect intense deficits in the north, particularly in the Salmon River Mountains, and deficits will reach into western Montana.

The Great Lakes Region will experience deficits in northern Minnesota that will be exceptional near Lake Superior, downgrading in northern Wisconsin and through the western half of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Moderate deficits will straddle Wisconsin’s southern border and pockets are expected in central Iowa. In the U.S. Northeast, deficits will be exceptional around Lake Champlain in Vermont and extreme in western Maine. Moderate to severe deficits will span the border of the Carolinas reaching the coast. In Peninsular Florida, deficits will be widespread and will include exceptional anomalies near Lake George in the north and Lake Okeechobee in the south.

Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Michigan’s Lower Peninsula and through neighboring states to the south through Tennessee and into northern Alabama. Anomalies will be exceptional in southeastern Michigan and several regions in Indiana. Surpluses will also be widespread in New York, eastern Pennsylvania, and smaller states to the coast, and will include exceptional anomalies. Elsewhere across the nation’s north, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in eastern South Dakota, southern Idaho, and pockets in northern Utah, north-central Nevada, and the Pacific Northwest.

In the Gulf States, intense surpluses are expected in southeastern Louisiana and spanning the southern border of Mississippi and Alabama, with milder anomalies to the north. In Texas, moderate surpluses are forecast in a pocket north of Corpus Christi.

Outside the contiguous U.S., Alaska can expect intense deficits in the northeast and near Anchorage and Valdez in the south. Areas of surplus include Noatak National Preserve, Nome, the area west of Bethel, and the eastern reaches of the Alaska Range. Surpluses are expected in Hawaii and severe deficits in western Puerto Rico.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2022 indicates that deficits will shrink, and surpluses will downgrade. Intense deficits will increase in Peninsular Florida. Severe deficits will increase from South Carolina into North Carolina. Widespread deficits will persist in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula though anomalies will downgrade. Generally moderate deficits are expected in central Montana and along the Missouri River through the Dakotas. Idaho’s Salmon River Mountains will see exceptional deficits, and pockets of deficit and surplus will pepper the Northern Rockies with deficits more prevalent in Colorado. Pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in south-central New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle, and West Texas. Surpluses will downgrade in the U.S. Northeast and from the southern Ohio River Valley through the Deep South and Gulf Region but will persist in Michigan and increase in its neighbors to the south. Regions where anomalies will be intense include southeastern Michigan, central Illinois, and New York. Surpluses are also expected in pockets of Missouri, Kansas, southern Idaho, northwestern Nevada, and Washington State.

From February through April 2022 deficits will continue to shrink overall but will increase in Peninsular Florida. Deficits will linger in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and the Salmon River Mountains. Deficits will intensify in pockets of New Mexico and West Texas. Surpluses will retreat from the Deep South and Gulf Region, increase but moderate from Michigan through Kentucky, and shrink and moderate in the U.S. Northeast. Increased surpluses are expected in Missouri and Kansas, from northeastern South Dakota through southern Wisconsin into Iowa, and in the Rockies.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2022 – indicates primarily moderate surpluses in Kentucky and Tennessee, northeastern South Dakota, and scattered pockets in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Deficits, moderate overall, are forecast in the coastal Southeast through Florida, the Southern Rockies and Southwest, pockets of Southern California, and northeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Washington State’s governor declared a weather emergency in 14 counties when a “river” of atmospheric moisture brought torrential rainfall in mid-November that produced widespread flooding.

Whatcom County was especially hard-hit, experiencing its worst flooding in three decades. Over 500 people were displaced and schools in the area were closed. A mudslide closed a portion of I-5, a major thoroughfare, near Bellingham. The Coast Guard was dispatched for air rescues in Everson in Whatcom County and Forks in Clallam County.

Statewide, 158,000 people lost power, including 1,600 In the border town of Sumas, where three-quarters of the homes suffered flood damage.

On the other side of the U.S., a powerful nor’easter tore through New England at the end of October, generating wind damage in Massachusetts and flash flooding in New York and New Jersey. Many roads flooded, schools and mass transit closed, and over 450,000 were left without power.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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