Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in N Mexico will intensify

18 November 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending July 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states, reaching south along the Gulf into Veracruz. Anomalies will be exceptional in eastern Chihuahua and from central Coahuila into northern Nuevo León, as well as in pockets along the Gulf Coast.

Deficits are also expected in the Baja Peninsula and will reach exceptional intensity in the north. The Yucatán Peninsula, too, will experience deficits, as will Tabasco on the southern Gulf.

Surpluses are forecast from southern Sinaloa into neighboring southern Durango and land-locked Zacatecas, leading southeast through the state of Mexico where anomalies will be intense and into Morelos and Tlaxcala. Surpluses are also forecast along the central Pacific Coast and in pockets of Oaxaca in the nation’s south.

Surpluses are forecast in many regions of Central America but will be most widespread in Nicaragua leading into northern Costa Rica. Anomalies will be extreme around Lake Nicaragua. In the Caribbean, surpluses will be intense in Jamaica, Cuba, and much of the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2022 indicates that deficits in north-central Mexico will intensify, becoming exceptional at the intersection of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango. Mild to moderate deficits are expected in Baja, and will follow the Gulf Coast from Laguna Madre in Tamaulipas through northern Veracruz, picking up again in southern Veracruz, Tabasco, and the Yucatán. Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in a path from southern Sinaloa into southern Durango and Zacatecas and southeast through the states of Mexico, Morelos, and Tlaxcala. Surpluses along the central Pacific Coast will shrink. In Central America, surpluses will be widespread from Honduras into northern Costa Rica and pockets are expected elsewhere in the region. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas.

From February through April 2022, surpluses will shrink in Mexico as deficits increase. Widespread deficits are expected to persist in north-central and northeastern Mexico, increasing as they emerge further into Durango and Zacatecas. Areas of exceptional deficit are expected though the extent of intense anomalies will shrink slightly in Coahuila. Widespread, exceptional deficits will emerge along the central Pacific Coast from Nayarit into northern Guerrero, and in southern Baja. While conditions in the Yucatán will normalize overall, a pocket of exceptional deficit in Campeche will increase. Surpluses will persist in the center of Mexico from Guanajuato into Morelos and Tlaxcala. Moderate to extreme surpluses will persist from southeastern Guatemala into northern Costa Rica. Surpluses will also persist in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas though transitions are forecast as deficits emerge in western Cuba and the northern Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – May through July 2022 – indicates moderate deficits in Baja and north-central Mexico and some pockets of surplus in Zacatecas and Oaxaca. Pockets of surplus are also expected in southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Surpluses in the Caribbean will shrink and downgrade somewhat.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As of the end of October, more than 700 Mexican municipalities were experiencing some level of drought. Drought in the northern states has been especially intense, with two municipalities in Durango in extreme drought and severe drought conditions in other areas of the north including Baja California, Coahuila, and Chihuahua, according to the the nation’s meteorological service.

More than half of the country’s most important dams are below 50 percent capacity and 61 dams in northern and central Mexico are below 25 percent.

The Durango livestock union estimates that the state has lost 50,000 head of cattle due to drought, with most of the losses in the northern part of the state.

In Coahuila, drought has reduced both the Álamos and Sabinas Rivers to nearly dry beds, easily fordable on foot in some sections. Farmers in the region are expecting a harsh winter as wells run dry.

Heavy rainfall in early November triggered flooding in western Jamaica leaving many roads impassable. Schools and workplaces were closed. Floodwaters inundated the sewage system in one community, sending raw sewage into homes.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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