Middle East: Water deficits will retreat from Iran

19 November 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending July 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the Levant, much of Saudi Arabia, and the small nations on the Persian Gulf. Turkey, too, can expect deficits, particularly central Turkey and the west where anomalies will include pockets of exceptional deficit.

Deficits will be severe overall in Cyprus and the Levant, though transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast in northern Syria. Deficits will reach exceptional intensity in Jordan’s southern tip. In Iraq, deficits will be widespread west of the Euphrates River while near-normal conditions are forecast in the east. Severe to exceptional deficits are predicted for northern and southeastern Saudi Arabia separated by moderate anomalies. Transitional conditions are expected in the southwest. United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain will see extreme to exceptional deficits. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen including intense deficits near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, surpluses northeast of Sanaa, and mild to moderate deficits elsewhere.

In Iran, deficits are expected at the northern end of the Persian Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, pockets in the center of the country, and in the northeast near Turkmenistan. Anomalies will be moderate overall but more intense near the Gulf. Some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast along the Caspian Coast and in a belt across Sistan and Baluchestan Province in the southeast.

In Georgia, intense deficits are expected on the coast including Batumi, and north of the Mtkvari (Kura) River. Surpluses are forecast south of the river and in nation’s eastern tip.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2022 indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade in the region, returning near-normal conditions to much of Iran. Conditions in Cyprus and western Turkey will normalize overall as well, while deficits are forecast in the Upper Ceyhan River Watershed of central Turkey, the Kizilirmak River, and north of Keban Dam Lake. A few small pockets of surplus will linger in the northeast. Intense surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria and surpluses are forecast in a small pocket surrounding Mosul, Iraq. Surpluses will persist in northern Iran near the Caspian Coast, shrinking and downgrading slightly, and a few pockets will linger in the southeast. In Saudi Arabia, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in the northwest from the Red Sea inland. Riyadh Province can expect moderate to extreme deficits along with transitional conditions. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen with surpluses along the Saudi border, intense deficits near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, moderate deficits near Sanaa and pockets in the east.

From February through April 2022, normal water conditions are forecast for much of the region. Deficits, primarily moderate, are expected in northwestern Turkey, Cyprus, Lebanon, western Syria, and southern Riyadh Province. Deficits may be extreme near Damascus, Syria and will also be extreme in a pocket of north-central Georgia. Areas of surplus include central Syria, Mosul, northwestern Yemen, and northeastern Iran.

In the final quarter – May through July 2022 –deficits will increase in the region, mild to moderate overall but severe to extreme in Riyadh Province, and extreme to exceptional along the eastern Mediterranean and the northeastern shore of the Red Sea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On 19 November, thousands of protesters descended on the city of Isfahan in central Iran to protest water shortages. Most of those who gathered were farmers but the crowd also included many supporters. Days earlier, hundreds had pitched tents in the dry riverbed that runs through the city of two million. Drought in the province, also called Isfahan, has threatened agricultural livelihoods in the region but water policies that divert water from the Zayandeh Rood [River] to Yazd Province are at the center of the longstanding dispute.

In central Turkey, agricultural water use, drought, and climate change are being cited as causes of depleted water in the nation’s second largest lake. Lake Tuz, a tourist attraction and migratory bird breeding ground has dried up. Environmentalists say there has been a 60 percent decline in flamingo hatchings this year compared to 2018.

The Turkish Statistical Institute estimates that the country’s cereal output will be 15 percent below last year’s due to drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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