Europe: Water deficits to persist in S France & Estonia

19 November 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2022 indicates that Northern Europe can expect exceptional water deficits in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, Norway’s Vestland, and Estonia, downgrading as they reach through Latvia. Surpluses are forecast in Norrbotten region of Sweden, western Finland, and from Arctic Norway through Murmansk, Russia.

Elsewhere in European Russia, surpluses are expected in the Vychegda Lowland in the north and deficits in the Middle Volga River region and Trans-Volga (not shown), and the Middle Don River region.

Framing the North Sea, mixed conditions are forecast in Scotland, pockets of moderate surplus in England and Wales, and intense surpluses in eastern Denmark. Surpluses are also expected north of the Marne River in France leading into Belgium west of the Meuse River, while intense deficits are expected east of the Meuse. Scattered, small pockets of moderate surplus are expected in Central Europe, moderate overall but anomalies may be more intense north of Italy’s Lake Garda.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in western Ukraine and parts of the northeast and south and will be extreme to exceptional west of Kyiv’ske Reservoir in the north. Deficits, primarily moderate, are expected in Moldova, Romania, Hungary, and many regions in the Balkan Peninsula and will be especially widespread in Albania where anomalies will be more intense in the south.

Deficits will reach through many areas of mainland Italy and its islands and Corsica and will be severe to exceptional from Vatican City north through Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna to Venice. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for many regions in France’s southern half leading into Spain, and in the French Riviera. The southern Iberian Peninsula can also expect deficits, but anomalies there will be more intense.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through January 2022 indicates that deficits will shrink in the Nordic nations as surpluses increase, though intense deficits will persist in the Dalälven River Watershed and western Västerbotten County in Sweden and in Arctic Norway, Estonia, and Latvia. In European Russia, deficits will nearly disappear and surpluses will shrink somewhat in Murmansk, persist in the Vychegda Lowland and around Rybinsk Reservoir, and re-emerge in Lipetsk Oblast. Moderate surpluses are forecast in southern Scotland, Wales, southern England, Belgium west of the Meuse River, and France north of the Marne River. Intense deficits will persist east of the Meuse. France’s southwestern quadrant will see moderate deficits overall as will the French Riviera, but deficits may be severe around Limoge and in the Upper Tarn River Watershed. Deficits, primarily moderate, are forecast in several regions of mainland Italy, particularly from Bologna north well past Venice. Moderate deficits are also forecast in western Ukraine. Scattered, small pockets of surplus are forecast in the Balkans and Eastern and Central Europe.

From February through April 2022, surpluses will increase in the Nordic nations and western European Russia. Intense deficits will persist in several regions of Sweden but deficits in the Baltics will shrink and downgrade. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge throughout Hungary, reaching into Romania and Serbia. Moderate deficits are forecast in western Ukraine, Moldova, southwestern Poland, Emilia-Romagna, and pockets in southern France and northeastern Spain. Surpluses will increase in the Alps from France through Austria; shrink in the U.K., Belgium, and northern France, and continue to emerge in small pockets of Central Europe.

The forecast for May through July 2022 indicates that deficits will increase in the Baltics, European Russia, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans. Surpluses will nearly disappear in Central Europe and shrink in the Nordic nations.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Farmers in southeastern Estonia’s Võru County are beginning to tally losses from the drought as harvest figures come in. The potato yield, an Estonian staple, is 40 percent lower than last year, prompting one farmer to characterize the drought as the worst he’s seen in twenty years. Dry conditions also affected the size of the potatoes, much smaller this year, though potatoes are commanding higher prices due to limited yields. Oat yields also fell short of last year.

Estonia’s grain harvest is projected to be 30 percent lower than 2020 due to drought. With depleted forage supplies and higher feed costs, livestock producers are likely to suffer losses.

Latvia, too, is expected to see a significantly lower grain harvest.

Authorities in southwestern France’s Dordogne region have initiated water use restrictions to help address the drought that has persisted in the area. All non-essential water use, including agricultural use, is prohibited to preserve supplies for drinking and bathing. Since January, France has received just a quarter of its normal rainfall and 30 departments in the nation have restrictions in place. In Pyrénées-Orientales, domestic water supply to four communes may be shut off entirely for one day a week.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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