Africa: Water surplus to continue in SE Sudan

19 November 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2022 indicates widespread water deficits across northern Africa including many areas of exceptional deficit.

Surpluses are forecast in large pockets of the Sahel and will be exceptional around Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali and Kano State in northern Nigeria, and extreme in southeastern Niger’s Zinder region. Southeastern Sudan can also expect surpluses, particularly intense between the White Nile and the Atbara Rivers and reaching into Eritrea.

In West Africa, deficits are forecast in Guinea Bissau and in south-central Mali’s Ségou and Bamako Regions as well as northern Mali. Scattered pockets of moderate surplus are expected in nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea.

Surpluses are forecast in northern Nigeria, as previously mentioned, and also in the southwest and the east at the intersection of the Benue and Gongola Rivers. Exceptional deficits are predicted for the nation’s southeast quadrant reaching through central Cameroon. Intense deficits are also expected in Cameroon’s northern tip reaching into Chad, and severe deficits will extend from southern Cameroon into Equatorial Guinea and Gabon.

In the heart of the continent, deficits are forecast in northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) reaching into Central African Republic and South Sudan. Anomalies will be moderate to severe overall but exceptional in DRC between the Upper Mbomou and Uele Rivers.

In the Horn of Africa, intense deficits are forecast in southern Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somaliland, and moderate deficits in central Ethiopia. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) along with exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley in Somalia.

Elsewhere, areas with a forecast of deficit, generally moderate, include pockets in northern Angola, southern DRC, northern Mozambique, and Lesotho. Surpluses are expected in pockets of central Tanzania, the Kalahari Desert in Botswana and surrounding Lake Xau in central Botswana, Western Cape, South Africa, and pockets around Pretoria.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2022 indicates that deficits in northern Africa will shrink and moderate but exceptional deficits are forecast in western Mauritania. Deficits will increase in Mali, Niger, and Sudan, and will be exceptional in a belt from southern Mali into Nigeria. Surpluses will persist in southeastern Sudan and on the northern Gulf of Guinea. In Nigeria, surpluses will increase, emerging in Kaduna State in the northwest, and persisting in Kano State in the north and in the southwest quadrant. From southeastern Nigeria into Cameroon, intense deficits will increase. Deficits in northern DRC will shrink and downgrade. Deficits are forecast in the Horn, exceptional in southern Eritrea, Djibouti, and eastern Ethiopia. A few pockets of moderate surplus will linger in Tanzania. In southern Africa, surpluses will shrink in the Kalahari Basin; persist in Western Cape; increase south of Durban, South Africa; and emerge around Johannesburg and Pretoria. A pocket is also forecast in southern Mozambique.

The forecast for February through April 2022 indicates normal water conditions in many regions. However, areas of deficit include northern Mali, southeastern Libya into Egypt, Sudan’s northern half, Nigeria into Cameroon, northern DRC, and Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Surpluses are forecast along the Gulf in West Africa, and in northern Chad, southeastern Sudan, Nugaal, Dodoma (Tanzania), Western Cape and pockets in northern South Africa including Pretoria.

In the final quarter – May through July 2022 – moderate to exceptional deficits will emerge across North Africa. Surpluses are forecast primarily in southeastern Sudan, Nugaal, and small pockets in Ethiopia and East Africa.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A thunderstorm in Egypt’s southern city of Aswan drove a swarm of scorpions out of their normal habitat and into streets and homes. Hundreds of people were injured in scorpion attacks, many of whom required hospitalization, and three people died. Off-duty doctors were called in and ship travel was temporarily halted on the Nile and on Lake Nassar to prevent the deadly arachnids from stowing away on passing boats. Some roads were closed due to poor visibility during the storm.

For the first time ever, the Moulouya River in Morocco failed to reach its destination in the Mediterranean Sea. Drought and groundwater extraction have reduced the river’s flow to a weak trickle, now walled off from the sea by a sandbar.

Farmers in Malawi have collectively received the largest crop insurance pay-out on the African continent. The relief monies, totaling US$2.4 million, were issued to 65,000 households by the UN World Food Programme to address agricultural losses in the 2020-2021 season due to drought and pests.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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