Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in C Asia will shrink

20 November 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through July 2022 indicates widespread water deficits in western and southern Kazakhstan, and in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Caspian Basin of western Kazakhstan and in southern Qaraghandy.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan and severe surpluses in the nation’s capital, Nur-Sultan. Surpluses are also forecast in the Kazakh Upland north of Lake Balkhash. In Kyrgyzstan, surpluses are forecast in much of the east and in the far south reaching into central Tajikistan. Deficits are expected in western Tajikistan and pockets in the east.

Deficits in the Caspian Basin will reach well into Russia from the Middle Volga region through TransVolga. Deficits are also forecast in the southern Ural Mountains reaching past Tyumen and will be exceptional north of Tyumen. Widespread surpluses will extend from the eastern portion of the Ob River Watershed through much of the Yenisei Watershed though intense deficits will span the Gulf of Ob.

In the Central Siberian Plateau, exceptional deficits are expected in the middle reaches of the Vilyuy River, a tributary of the Lena River, including the area surrounding the Vilyuy Reservoir, and spanning the southern edge of the Plateau and the region north of Lake Baikal. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the plateau’s northeast between the Markha and Tyung Rivers. Intense surpluses are also forecast in a vast area from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering China. Regions west of the Sea of Okhotsk can expect intense deficits.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2022 indicates that widespread deficits in western and central Kazakhstan will shrink and downgrade, leaving generally moderate anomalies north of the Caspian Sea. Intense deficits will emerge, however, in the Ishim River region of the far north. Surpluses will re-emerge in the Alataw Mountains southeast of Lake Balkhash. Deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will retreat as pockets of surplus emerge. Surpluses will persist in eastern Kyrgyzstan, increase along the Naryn River, and emerge in the Fergana Valley. In Russia, deficits in the Volga River Basin will shrink considerably as surpluses emerge. Intense deficits will persist in the Ural River Watershed, the southern Urals, and the Tura Watershed past Tyumen. Exceptional surpluses will increase in the Lower Yenisei River Watershed and to the west. Widespread, exceptional deficits are forecast in the Central Siberian Plateau, and widespread intense surpluses from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering Mongolia and China. Intense deficits will persist near the Sea of Okhotsk.

From February through April 2022, deficits in Central Asia will nearly disappear. Areas with a forecast of surplus include eastern Kyrgyzstan, the Alataw Mountains, and far northern Kazakhstan. In Russia, surpluses will retreat from the Volga region, downgrade but increase in the Vychegda Lowland, increase in the Ob Watershed, and persist in the Lower Yenisei. Intense surpluses will persist in southern Irkutsk Oblast and from Lake Baikal through regions bordering Mongolia and China. Deficits will shrink and downgrade in the southern Urals and, while shrinking, remain widespread in the Central Siberian Plateau.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2022 – indicates widespread, moderate surpluses between the Ob and Yenisei Rivers, and intense surpluses east of Baikal and in the northeastern region of the Central Siberian Plateau. Deficits will shrink in the Plateau and southern Urals but increase north of Baikal and the Middle Volga region, and will emerge in Uzbekistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought continues to impact energy, agriculture, and health in several regions of Central Asia.

Over 90 percent of Kazakhstan’s and Tajikistan’s electricity is generated through hydropower but production has been curtailed by the drought, resulting in intermittent services.

In mid-November the water level in Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Dam, which supplies 40 percent of the nation’s electricity, was 11.4 billion cubic meters (bcm) compared to a preferred level of 16 bcm, and having lost a billion cubic meters since last month.

Lack of irrigation water reduced Kyrgyzstan’s grain output by 35 percent this year. The drought along with climate change, specifically glacier loss, has negatively affected Kyrgyz beekeeping and honey production as dry conditions reduce plant life and pollination.

Households in Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Oblast bordering the Caspian Sea will receive humanitarian assistance from the U.S. Agency for international Development to address hardships imposed by drought. Massive livestock losses have affected livelihoods in the region whose income is tied to animal husbandry.

Uzbekistan’s favored national dish, pilaf, or “plov” in the regional vernacular, has become much pricier as sweet yellow carrots, a key ingredient, are over three times as costly due to drought. One farmer interviewed reported losing a third of his annual income when hot, dry conditions withered his crop.

The drought also contributed to an unprecedented dust storm that blanketed the Uzbek capital, Tashkent, in early November, resulting in over 4,000 calls for medical assistance due to respiratory problems.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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