East Asia: Water deficits in SE China will shrink

22 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through March 2022 indicates widespread water surpluses in Northeast China with exceptional anomalies from northwest Jilin into Heilongjiang in the Songhua River Watershed. Surpluses in the Yellow (Huang He) River Watershed will be moderate along much of the river’s path but severe in the upper basin in eastern Qinghai. In the Yangtze Basin, moderate surpluses are expected in the lower watershed and in the Han River region of the middle watershed, but anomalies will be more intense in the Yuan and Wu River regions, southern tributaries.

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In Southeast China, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in Fujian, Guangdong, and Taiwan. Deficits will also be intense from southern Sichuan into eastern Tibet (Xizang) and northwestern Yunnan, though transitions are forecast in Yunnan and moderate surpluses around Kunming in the center of the province.

Mixed conditions are forecast for northern Tibet and exceptional surpluses in the west. In northwestern China, surpluses near Inner Mongolia’s metropolitan area of Baotou will transition to intense deficits farther west, moderating as they reach into Xinjiang Uygur. Mixed conditions are expected in the Taklimakan Desert and surpluses in northwestern Xinjiang.

In Mongolia, surpluses are forecast in small pockets throughout the nation’s eastern half and in the northwest from Lake Uvs to Lake Khövsgöl. Moderate deficits are expected in the Hangayn Mountains trailing south to the Chinese border, and in the far northwest corner of the nation.

North Korea can expect surpluses. Nearly normal conditions are forecast for much of Japan though deficits are forecast for northern Hokkaido and surpluses along its southern shore.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade, but many vast areas will persist, including severe to exceptional surpluses in Northeast China. Surpluses will increase and become severe northeast of Beijing, but downgrade along the Yellow River and in its upper watershed. In the Yangtze Watershed, surpluses will moderate though anomalies will be severe in the Ou River region of Zhejiang. Deficits in Southeast China will shrink and downgrade, returning Taiwan to normal conditions but leaving moderate to severe anomalies in Guangdong. Moderate surpluses will increase in Yunnan and deficits will persist in Tibet’s southeast corner, retreating from nearby regions in neighboring provinces. Moderate to severe deficits will emerge in western Inner Mongolia and deficits of greater intensity in central Xinjiang. Western and northwestern Xinjiang can expect surpluses. In North Korea, surpluses will moderate, and moderate surpluses will emerge in eastern South Korea. Near-normal conditions are forecast for most of Japan though severe deficits are expected in northern Hokkaido. In Mongolia, deficits are forecast in the Hangayn Mountains and in the far northwest.

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From October through December, surpluses in Northeast China will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread and exceptional anomalies will persist in the Songhua Watershed. Severe surpluses will continue near Beijing. Surpluses in the Yellow and Yangtze River regions will nearly disappear. In Southeast China, deficits will shrink but severe deficits will persist in a pocket of Guangdong in the Upper Dong River region. Moderate deficits will emerge in Guangxi. Surpluses will persist in central Tibet, Qinghai, and northwestern and western Xinjiang, with exceptional surpluses emerging on the Tarim and Konqi Rivers. Severe deficits will continue in Mongolia’s Hangayn Mountains. No significant anomalies are indicated for Korea or Japan.

The forecast for the final three months – January through March 2022 – indicates widespread, moderate deficits in East and Southeast China and surpluses in the northeast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Flooding in central China’s Henan Province has left at least 33 people dead this month with many missing after torrential rain struck. In the region’s capital, Zhengzhou, home to 12 million people, floodwaters trapped passengers in the subway for hours, killing 12. Elsewhere in the province, four people died in Gongyi, west of Zhengzhou, and a bridge collapsed. Reservoirs and rivers overflowed in Xinxiang and hundreds of thousands of people throughout the province were displaced. Officials estimate damages totaling 1.22 billion yuan ($192 million).

Intense precipitation in Japan triggered a mudslide near Tokyo in early July after 12.4 inches of rain fell in 48 hours on the seaside resort of Atami. Eighteen people are confirmed dead and twelve are missing. Train service was disrupted and evacuations ordered. A mountainside landfill containing industrial waste was cited as the source of the mudslide, and violated size restrictions according to local officials,

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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