ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List November 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST November 2022

16 November 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in August 2022 and running through July 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List November 16, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through January 2023 indicates water deficits from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest, the Ohio River Basin, along the Gulf Coast, from Virginia through Florida, and pockets in the northern Rockies.

Canada: The forecast through January 2023 indicates many areas of intense deficit, including Newfoundland, Quebec into Labrador, southeastern Ontario, central and northeastern Manitoba, central Saskatchewan, and much of the central and northern regions of Alberta and British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through January 2023 indicates widespread deficits in Mexico including exceptional anomalies in the north. Surpluses will persist in Central America.

South America: The forecast through January 2023 indicates that water deficits will shrink considerably in Brazil but persist in the southern half of the continent. Notable areas with intense deficit include Chile and the Pampas. Surpluses will emerge in the northern Brazilian Amazon.

Europe: The forecast through January 2023 indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread, particularly in France, Spain, Italy, the Baltics, and Sweden. Surpluses will emerge throughout Norway.

Africa: The forecast through January 2023 indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Areas with a forecast of deficit include southeastern Nigeria, and from southeastern Libya into Ethiopia. Surpluses will persist in a belt through parts of the Sahel and regions south.

Middle East: The forecast through January 2023 indicates intense water deficits in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia. Generally moderate deficits are forecast in southern Iran. Areas with a forecast of surplus include the region east of Tehran, Iran, and Al-Anbar, Iraq.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through January 2023 indicates intense water deficits in eastern Russia’s Sverdlovsk Oblast. Surpluses will emerge in western Kazakhstan and exceptional surpluses will emerge on the Amu Darya River.

South Asia: The forecast through January 2023 indicates widespread water surpluses in central India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and eastern Afghanistan. Transitional conditions are expected in central and southern Pakistan, but intense surpluses will persist in the north.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through January 2023 indicates that widespread water surpluses will continue, but intense anomalies will shrink, persisting in the Chi River Basin in Thailand and eastern Thailand through north-central Cambodia. Moderate deficits will emerge in northern Laos.

East Asia: The forecast through January 2023 indicates intense water deficits from the Yangtze Gorges through the Wu River Basin, and in Taiwan. Deficits will downgrade in Southeast China and emerge in southern Japan. Surpluses are forecast in the Yellow River Basin, Northeast China, and North Korea.

Australia & New Zealand:  The forecast through January 2023 indicates that widespread water surpluses in southeastern Australia will increase, reaching through the Murray-Darling Basin to the coast and most of Victoria. Deficits will shrink in Tasmania and persist in New Zealand’s southern tip.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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