Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook November 2022

4 November 2022

OVERVIEW
Our November 2022 Global Precipitation and Temperature Outlook indicates that several regions of the world will experience exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures, including northeastern Russia, eastern North America, southern South America, central Asia, and the majority of Europe, Oceania, and the Middle East.

Additionally, various regions in Europe, Asia, and Australia will be considerably wetter than usual, and areas in western South America will experience exceptional precipitation deficits.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In South America, precipitation surpluses of varying intensity are expected throughout the Amazon Basin, with the most intense being in eastern Venezuela - most notably central Bolivar, Delta Amacuro, and Pomeroon-Supenaam states. Surpluses of lesser intensity continue throughout eastern Brazil.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Precipitation deficits are expected along the Pacific coast throughout Colombia and Ecuador, with exceptional deficits spanning throughout Ecuador to Bolivia - the most intense of which are forecast for the provinces of Guayas, Los Rios, and Bolivar in Ecuador, as well as an arc from Cusco in Peru to Jujuy in Argentina. More deficits can be expected in southern Chile, central Argentina, and central Brazil.

Precipitation surpluses can be expected in southern and central Africa, most concentrated in Botswana, Gabon, and northern South Africa. Moderate deficits are forecast for pockets throughout central Africa, including regions in Guinea, Benin, Cameroon, and eastern Madagascar, specifically the provinces of Antsranana, Toamasina, and Fianarantsoa. Mozambique and regions north of it are also expected to experience moderate deficits, including Ruvuma and Mtwara of Tazmania, Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula of Mozambique, Rumphi of Malawi, and southern Tanzania.

In Asia, moderate to exceptional precipitation surpluses can be expected in pockets of western China, specifically in Xinjiang Uygur and Xizang. Nepal, particularly Lumbini, Janakpur Sagarmatha, Rapti, and Uttaranchal can similarly expect moderate to exceptional precipitation surpluses, as well as the Uttar Pradesh region of India. Central regions of China, including Sichuan, Guizhou, Kachin, Sagaing, and Myanmar, northern regions of Turkey along the Black Sea’s coast, and India, specifically Arunachal Pradesh, can expect exceptional precipitation deficits.

In South Asia, both northern Pakistan and northern Afghanistan, specifically Bamyan, Parwan, Surkhandarya, Baglhan, and Balkh can expect exceptional surpluses in precipitation. In Central Asia, Tajikistan can also expect exceptional surpluses. Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and southern Iran can expect moderate deficits. Northern regions of Turkey along the Black Sea’s coast are expected to experience exceptional precipitation deficits.

Areas of Oceania can expect moderate to extreme precipitation surpluses, including Indonesia, East Timor, Philippines, and Papua New Guinea. Thailand, Brunei, and concentrated areas of Laos and Vietnam can expect moderate precipitation deficits.

In Europe, the northern region of the United Kingdom, as well as both northern and western Ireland can expect moderate precipitation surpluses. Northern Iceland, specifically the town of Akureyri and Halshreppur area, can expect moderate to exceptional surpluses.

Australia can expect surpluses in its central, northern, and southeastern regions. Western Australia is expected to experience moderate deficits this month. Additionally, New Zealand is expected to experience moderate surpluses in its northern region, and exceptional deficits in its southern region.

In Russia, moderate surpluses can be expected in northern regions, specifically the Taymyr district, the city of Khabarovsk, and the Chukot area. Exceptional deficits can be expected in southern regions, specifically Ust-Orda Buryat region.

The northern regions of Canada can expect precipitation surpluses, specifically the northern area of the Manitoba province, the southern area of the Nunavut territory, and the northern region of the city of Quebec. Regions expected to experience moderate deficits are the Ontario province, the central area of the Yukon territory, and southeastern and northeastern Alaska. Northern Greenland can also expect moderate deficits, specifically in the Nationalparken area, the Pituffik region, and the Qaasuitsup Kommunia municipality.

North America can expect moderate precipitation deficits throughout the East Coast, mainly observed in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida. Deficits are also expected from central Texas through Mexico. Specific areas in Mexico will experience exceptional deficits, including Veracruz, Guerrero, and southern San Luis Potosi. In Central America, the deficits continue through Honduras into Nicaragua.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Widespread warm anomalies of extreme to exceptional intensity are expected to cover the majority of Europe, specifically Poland, Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Denmark, northern Germany, southern to central Norway, western Romania, and Finland. Luxembourg, France, Spain, Austria, central to southern Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, and Slovakia are expected to experience moderate to extreme warm anomalies.

In the Middle East, anomalies of extreme to exceptional intensity are anticipated in southern Iran, central to southern Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, western and eastern Yemen and the United Arab Emirates. Pockets of moderate warm anomalies are expected throughout northern Saudi Arabia, western to eastern Iraq, and central Iran.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In Asia, pockets of extreme to exceptional warm anomalies are expected in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and central China, specifically in the Nei Mongol region, and the Shannxi, Henan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces. The Samdrup Jongkhar region of Bhutan and the Xizang region of China are expected to experience pockets of exceptionally cool temperature anomalies, as well as the area surrounding Mount Everest, and the Bhojpur, Mechi, and Sikkim regions of Nepal. In South Asia, western Pakistan and India can expect anomalies of extreme to exceptional intensity. Pakistan can expect pockets of moderate warm anomalies throughout the region.

Russia will see an increase in warm anomalies throughout the area, with extreme to exceptional rises throughout the Chukot area, with the most intense along the northern coast. Areas such as Maga Buryatdan, Khabarovsk, Evenk, Irkutsk, and Chukchi Autonomous Okrug will see moderate warm anomalies throughout.

Regions within Oceania can expect to observe extreme to exceptional warm anomalies of temperature in the Philippines, Singapore, southern Papua New Guinea, East Timor, Malaysia, Solomon Islands, the city of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Fiji. Central Papua New Guinea can expect moderate warm anomalies.

Northern Australia can expect exceptional warm anomalies, with moderate to extreme cooler anomalies throughout most of its central and southern regions. Southern Victoria and all of Tasmania can expect moderate to extreme warm anomalies. Additionally, New Zealand can expect mostly moderate to extreme anomalies, with the exception of the Tasman district, the West Coast region, and the Southland region expecting exceptional warm anomalies.

Africa can expect abnormal to moderate warm anomalies throughout the continent, however several regions, including Nigeria, Western Sahara, Guinea, the country of Ivory Coast, and northern Algeria can expect exceptional warm anomalies. Separately, the countries of South Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, and the western portion of Namibia, along with areas surrounding the Gambia, such as Kolda (in Senegal), and Oio, Bafata, and Gabu (in Guinea Bissau) can expect moderate to exceptional cool temperature anomalies.

Greenland can expect widespread abnormal to moderate warm anomalies throughout much of the Quaasuitsup Kommunia, Nationalparken, Qeqqata Kommonia, and Sermersooq areas. Southern Kommuneqarfik Sermersooq can expect exceptional warm anomalies along the Denmark Strait.

Canada’s western and central regions, specifically Yukon, southern Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and an arc across British Columbia can expect moderately cooler temperatures. Eastern Canada, including Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland can expect abnormal to moderate warm anomalies. Pockets of exceptional warm anomalies can be found across southern and central Quebec, as well as eastern Ontario.

Northeastern North America can expect moderate to extreme rises in temperature, with Ohio and southern Michigan experiencing exceptional warm anomalies. The Midwest can expect moderate to extreme warm anomalies, specifically southern Iowa and northern Missouri. While most of the United States will experience warm anomalies, western regions of California and Oregon can expect abnormally cooler temperatures.

Eastern and central Mexico can expect moderate to extreme warm anomalies throughout the area, as well as exceptional warm anomalies in southern area of the state Nuevo Leon and northern portion of the city San Luis Potosi. Further in Central America, many regions in and around Guatemala, including Tabasco, Chiapas, Huehuetenango, Quiche, Santaros, and Jutiana can expect moderate warm anomalies. Belize and areas north, including Yucatan, Quintana Roo, Campeche, Peten, Orange Walk, Stann Creek, and Toledo are expected to experience moderate to severe warm anomalies, while Guerrero is expected to experience abnormally cooler anomalies. Exceptional warm anomalies can be expected along eastern Nicaragua and surrounding areas, including Atlantico Norte, San Andres y Providencia, Atlantico Sur, and Gracias a Dios.

In South America, exceptionally cool anomalies can be expected throughout Bolivia, Paraguay, central Venezuela, and Brazil, specifically its Para, Santa Catarina, southern Parana, and northern Rio Grande do Sul regions. Other surrounding areas experiencing moderate to extreme cool anomalies include La Rioja, southern Salta, and Chaco. Areas in and surrounding Peru can expect extreme to exceptional warm anomalies, such as northern Ayachuco, northern Apurimac, southern La Paz, and central Atacama. Eastern Brazil, particularly Ceara, Rio Grande do Norte, northern Para, and central Paraiba can also expect exceptional warm anomalies. Argentina and surrounding areas can expect abnormal to moderate warm anomalies, including Rio Negro, Neuquen, Tierra Del Fuego, and La Araucania. Extreme to exceptional warm anomalies are expected throughout the Chubut region of Argentina, as well as Los Rios and Santa Cruz.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released November 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for November 2022 through July 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued October 25 through October 31, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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