Canada: Persistent water deficits in vast pockets

25 October 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through June 2023 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in northern regions of the provinces.

In the east, deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, the Miramichi River Watershed in New Brunswick, and the following regions in Quebec: from the Caniapiscau River past the Smallwood Reservoir in Labrador; the Manicouagan Reservoir into Minganie Region; west of Lake Mistassini; the upper Ungava Peninsula; and the Lower Saint Maurice River.

Intense deficits are expected from James Bay into Southern Ontario, and in a pocket north of Lake Erie. Deficits will be widespread in northern Kenora District and near Lake Nipigon.

Widespread intense deficits will form a belt across central Manitoba and are also forecast in the province’s northeast along Hudson Bay, while surpluses are expected in the northwest and some pockets around Lake Winnipeg. The city of Winnipeg, however, can expect intense deficits.

Elsewhere in the Prairie Provinces, deficits will be exceptional in a path across south-central Saskatchewan leading to Regina and of varying intensity in the center of the province, but widespread surpluses are forecast in the northwest leading west past Fort McMurray, Alberta. In Alberta, widespread intense deficits are forecast in the province’s center and northwest.

Surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River Watershed of southern British Columbia. Exceptional deficits are expected in East Kootenay in the province’s southeast corner, the Upper Fraser and Nechako River Watersheds, Moresby Island, and the central far north from Williston Lake well into Yukon and Northwest Territories. Deficits will skirt the U.S. border and surpluses are forecast in the far northwest.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates many areas of deficit in the east, frequently intense, including areas in Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, from the Caniapiscau River Watershed in Quebec past the Smallwood Reservoir in Labrador, and in the Côte-Nord and Lake Mistassini regions. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are predicted from Montreal to the mouth of the Saint Maurice River. In Ontario, exceptional deficits are forecast along James Bay, downgrading as they reach south; moderate deficits north of Lake Erie; and deficits of varying intensity in northern Kenora and east of Lake Nipigon. In Manitoba, intense deficits will persist in Winnipeg and will be widespread north of Lake Winnipeg and near Hudson Bay. Surpluses will linger on Manitoba’s southern border, around Lake Winnipeg’s northern arm, and in the far northwest. Deficits are forecast in southern Saskatchewan, more intense in the east and in the center of the province between the Churchill and Saskatchewan Rivers. Intense surpluses will persist from the northwest into Alberta. Elsewhere in Alberta, deficits are forecast, moderate in the south but intense in center of the province and the northwest. In British Columbia, surpluses are expected in the South Thompson, Quesnel, and West Road River Watersheds; intense deficits are forecast in East Kootenay and from the Upper Fraser Watershed past Lake Williston in the far north.

From January through March 2023, deficits will downgrade somewhat in the western half of the nation, but large areas of exceptional deficit will persist in the east. Deficits will retreat from Nova Scotia and moderate in Southern Ontario, nearly disappearing north of Lake Erie. Surpluses in northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan will downgrade.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2023 – indicates that anomalies will shrink and downgrade. Near-normal conditions are expected in southern regions of the provinces, and moderate surpluses will emerge in the Ungava Peninsula.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After striking Cuba, Puerto Rico, and Florida in late September, Hurricane Fiona made its way to eastern Canada, hitting Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland, and Eastern Quebec. The path of destruction could total between C$300 and $700 million, making it the costliest extreme weather event in Atlantic Canada. Much of that damage, however, may not be covered by insurance. Unlike damage from wind, trees, and leaking roofs - all covered under standard policies - flood damage from storm surge requires separate coverage which many homeowners simply don’t have. Commercial establishments are likely to fare better with policies that include both flood damage and business interruption.

The nation’s fishing industry suffered massive losses as Fiona’s two-meter storm surge quickly flushed the harbor area of Newfoundland’s Port aux Basques into the ocean, swept fishing equipment away, and tossed boats onto the beach.

Nova Scotia has prepared a $40 million relief package for impacted residents that will include up to $200,000 for uninsured losses to residents and businesses and $100 to cover the cost of food spoiled during the power outage.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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