Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense deficits from NE into C Mexico

25 October 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending June 2023 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in north-central and central Mexico. Severe to exceptional anomalies are expected in pockets at the intersection of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango in the north; from Tamaulipas on the Gulf through Puebla; and in Michoacan on the west coast. Deficits are also forecast in northern Baja.

Intense surpluses are forecast in the northern Sierra de la Giganta Range in Baja. Across the Gulf of California in Sonora, surpluses of varying intensity are predicted in the Yaqui and Sonora River Basins. A pocket of surplus is also expected in southern Durango. Some deficits are expected in Tabasco and Campeche in southern Mexico.

Much of Central America can expect surpluses. Anomalies will be severe overall but of even greater intensity in the Motagua River Watershed of Guatemala and in central Honduras and central Panama including the Canal. Cuba and the central Bahamas will also see surpluses. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in Haiti.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates a pattern of anomalies much like that observed in the prior three months. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficit are forecast from Tamaulipas State on the Gulf of Mexico through southern Nuevo León, San Luis Potosi, northern Veracruz and its smaller land-locked neighbors, and Puebla. Generally mild to moderate deficits are forecast in north-central and west-central Mexico and pockets in the south. Surpluses will be intense in the northern Sierra de la Giganta Range in Baja and the Sonora and Yaqui River Basins. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in southern Durango and small pockets in coastal Guerrero and Oaxaca. In Central America, surpluses will shrink somewhat but remain widespread, downgrading but still severe in many regions and extreme in central Honduras. Surpluses will persist in Cuba and the Bahamas. Deficits in Haiti will nearly disappear.

From January through March 2023, the Bahamas will begin to transition to deficit and transitions (pink/purple) are expected in Cuba as well. Surpluses in Central America will shrink somewhat and moderate overall persisting primarily from Honduras into western Panama, but anomalies will remain extreme in central Honduras. In Mexico, deficits will increase and will be exceptional in several areas. Exceptional anomalies will emerge in central Pacific Coast states from Jalisco into Guerrero and in the south near the Gulf of Tehuantepec; north-central Mexico in Durango and Coahuila, with deficits of lesser intensity increasing nearby; and northwestern Campeche in the Yucatan. Intense anomalies will persist in the small land-locked states in east-central Mexico and a pocket in northern Tamaulipas. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in Sonora and begin to transition in Baja.

The forecast for the final three months – April through June 2023 – indicates deficits in Baja and in Sonora where surpluses will shrink. Moderate deficits will persist in southeastern Chihuahua and moderate surpluses in southern Durango. Pockets of surplus will linger in Central America, particularly in central Honduras, and surpluses are forecast in Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In early September, Hurricane Kay struck Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, inflicting significant damage on water infrastructure in Baja California Sur. The federal government has granted Conagua, the national water authority, 4.4 billion pesos (US $200 million) for repairs.

Hurricane Ian swept across Cuba at the end of September on its way to further destruction in Florida, knocking out power to the entire island and leaving three people dead. More than a week later in the particularly hard-hit western province of Pinar del Rio, the coastal town of La Coloma remained without power. The storm damaged 63,000 homes in the province and 12 fishing boats.

Tropical Storm Julia hit Central America during the first week of October, killing many people in flooding, collapsed buildings, and landslides in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. The death toll has been reported as high as 54.

Mexico’s national water commission reports that the city of San Luis Potosí, capital of its namesake state in central Mexico, has been in severe drought for seven weeks, along with five nearby municipalities.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags