Central Asia & Russia: Deficits will intensify in Sverdlovsk

25 October 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2023 indicates deficits of varying intensity in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Caspian regions of Kazakhstan and large areas in central and southern Kazakhstan as well as isolated pockets in the nation’s east.

Deficits will be especially intense in Caspian Kazakhstan and pockets in the center and south of the nation, severe in Uzbekistan, and moderate to severe in Turkmenistan.

Exceptional surpluses are expected in Akmola Region in far northern Kazakhstan and in the nation’s southeast corner, and surpluses of lesser intensity in the eastern Kazakh Upland. In Tajikistan, deficits are forecast in the east and exceptional surpluses in the center of the country. Surpluses will reach through southern Kyrgyzstan while moderate deficits are expected in the center of the nation and surpluses of varying intensity in the east.

In Asian Russia, intense deficits will span the Gulf of Ob, reaching east past the city of Norilsk. Widespread surpluses are forecast through most of the Western Siberian Plain and well into much of the vast Yenisei River Watershed. Exceptional deficits are forecast in coastal areas of the Laptev and East Siberian Sea (not shown) from the Lena River Delta past the Yana River Delta; exceptional surpluses in the Tyung River Watershed, a western tributary of the Lena; and surpluses of varying intensity in the Lena’s southern watershed. In Transbaikal, surpluses will be exceptional in Zabaykalsky Krai. In southern Siberia, deficits are expected in the Republic of Khakassia and the Western Sayan Mountains. Deficits are also forecast in a wide path from the Aldan Uplands in Sakha Republic through the Suntar-Khayata Range.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that intense deficits spanning the Gulf of Ob in Russia will persist, but anomalies farther east near Norilsk will retreat. Deficits will intensify in Sverdlovsk Oblast in the Ural Federal District and in Novosibirsk Oblast. Surpluses will continue from the Western Siberian Plain into the Yenisei Watershed and exceptional anomalies will increase in eastern Tomsk Oblast and between the Podkamennaya Tunguska and Angara Rivers. Deficits will persist in southern Siberia in Khakassia and the Western Sayan Mountains and increase southeast of Lake Baikal. In the Lena River Watershed, deficits in the Delta (not shown) will nearly disappear, while surpluses will remain widespread elsewhere. Deficits will continue in the Aldan Uplands in Sakha Republic and the Suntar-Khayata Range. Surpluses are forecast on the western shore of the Sea of Okhotsk and in western Kamchatka. In Kazakhstan, deficits east of the Caspian will moderate and surpluses north will increase. Mixed conditions are predicted in the nation’s far north as deficits emerge. Areas of surplus include the eastern Kazakh Upland and the Ile River region in the far southeast. Moderate deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan. Mixed conditions are forecast for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, notably intense deficits in eastern Tajikistan and intense surpluses from the nation’s center into Kyrgyzstan.

From January through March 2023, deficits in Central Asia will nearly disappear, persisting primarily in far northern Kazakhstan. Moderate surpluses north of the Caspian will trail east, eventually turning south past Lake Balkhash into the southeast. Pockets of surplus are expected in central Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and will re-emerge in pockets of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. In Russia, deficits will re-emerge in the Lena Delta, and intensify in the Yana Delta and near central Lake Baikal.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2023 – indicates near-normal conditions in Central Asia with deficits in Turkmenistan and pockets in western Kazakhstan. Deficits will shrink in southern Siberia and surpluses will increase in the Western Siberian Plain.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Low soil moisture in Russia’s southern wheat fields is threatening the season’s yield. Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat, is facing the possibility of reduced production in its primary wheat regions - Krasnodar, Rostov, and Stavropol. Planting of the winter crop, which accounts for 70 percent of Russian wheat and commands a higher price, has been delayed due to poor soil conditions.

Kyrgyzstan’s new border demarcation settlement with neighboring Uzbekistan will put the Kempir-Abad reservoir in Uzbek territory, a consequence at odds with some Kyrgyz politicians and activists who staged a rally attended by hundreds. Though the agreement stipulates that Kyrgyz farmers will continue to have access to the reservoir’s water, protesters were not appeased, and several were arrested for blocking a major highway.

Violence on a portion of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border continues with 100 killed in September during what was supposed to be a cease-fire in the Batken region conflict that began in 2021. The long-standing tensions are rooted in ethnic divisions and water access for agriculture, electricity, and household use.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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