Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surpluses will remain widespread in SE Asia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surpluses will remain widespread in SE Asia

27 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in many regions of Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

Widespread surpluses are expected in Vietnam, generally moderate in the north, exceptional in the narrows, and extreme to exceptional from the Highlands to the coast. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in much of central and southern Thailand and in Myanmar.

The central and southern Philippines can expect surpluses, as can Peninsular Malaysia, northern Malaysian Borneo, and Indonesian Borneo where anomalies will be exceptional in West Kalimantan. Many areas of surplus are forecast throughout the remaining region including intense anomalies in Banda Aceh, Sumatra’s northern tip; eastern Java; Flores Island; and Sulawesi’s northern arm. Surpluses will be widespread though moderate overall in Papua, Indonesia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March indicates that surpluses will remain widespread and intense in much of Southeast Asia and will shrink and downgrade in Indonesia and Pacific regions. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the Lower Mekong River Basin through southern Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, as well as the coastal provinces of Cambodia. Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Thailand. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for central Myanmar, but extreme surpluses will continue in the far west and in pockets near the Thai border. Moderate surpluses are expected in the central and southern Philippines. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, West Kalimantan in Indonesian Borneo, eastern Java, northern Sulawesi, Flores Island, the Maluku Islands, and pockets of Papua, Indonesia. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in some areas including Kuala Lumpur, Banda Aceh (Sumatra), and coastal West Kalimantan. Deficits are forecast along the Gulf of Papua.

From April through June, surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably in the region. However, widespread moderate to severe surpluses will persist in Vietnam and many moderate pockets are expected in Thailand. In Myanmar, severe surpluses are forecast in Rakhine State in the west, moderate surpluses near the Thai border, and mild to moderate deficits in the far north. Moderate surpluses will linger in the central and southern Philippines, pockets in Malaysia, Banda Aceh, northern Sulawesi, the Lesser Sundas and Malukus, and Pulau Dolok, the leaf-shaped island off the southern coast of Papua, Indonesia.

The forecast for the final months – July through September – indicates near-normal conditions in Southeast Asia with some pockets of deficit in Myanmar, lingering surpluses in the Philippines, and a resurgence of surpluses in pockets of Indonesia and throughout New Guinea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Typhoon Rai, also known as Typhoon Odette, struck the Philippines in December, killing over 400 people and leaving a path of destruction that sent 370,000 into evacuation centers. Since then conditions have led to an outbreak of diarrhea that has claimed nine lives among 895 cases. Agricultural damages totaled P9 billion (USD $175.7 million), primarily in the Visayas and Mindanao.

Six people died during flash floods and landslides in Papua, Indonesia in early January after 140 mm (5.6 inches) fell on the region’s capital, Jayapura City, in just 24 hours. One death was reported in Sumatra.

Nearly 50 people have died during flooding in Malaysia since December. Thousands were evacuated in early January when 300 mm (11.8 inches) of rain fell in 48 hours. The effects of widespread flooding rippled through the regional tech supply chain creating bottlenecks in factories located in Kuala Lumpur and neighboring states. Malaysia has seen a rise in infectious diseases since the flooding began in December with cases totaling over 2,000 including 135 current cases of acute respiratory infections, skin diseases, food poisoning, and gastroenteritis. The government has earmarked 1.4 billion ringgit (USD $334.93 million) for flood relief.

A mid-January report by the Mekong River Commission indicate that the Lower Mekong is experiencing low flows for the third year in a row, decreasing to levels not seen in 60 years.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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