United States: Water deficits will intensify in VA, NC, SC

27 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending September indicates widespread water deficits from the southern Rockies through New Mexico, western Oklahoma, and Texas. Deficits will be exceptional in the Panhandles, the Llano Estacado, and in the Rio Grande region near Amistad Reservoir. Deficits will reach east into Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and southwestern Mississippi, and will be especially intense from Shreveport, Louisiana past the Toledo Bend Reservoir on the Sabine River.

Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Arizona, exceptional where the Gila River joins the Colorado, and severe deficits are expected in Death Valley, California. A few scattered pockets of surplus are forecast in California and widespread surpluses in northern and eastern Nevada into Utah.

Surpluses are also forecast in southeastern Idaho, but intense deficits are expected in the Salmon River Mountains. The Pacific Northwest can expect surpluses from western Washington into Oregon and pockets leading into Montana. Deficits are forecast the Upper Clark Fork River Watershed in Montana. Wyoming can expect mixed conditions, Colorado will see widespread deficits in much of its extent and some surpluses in the west, and moderate pockets of deficit are forecast in Nebraska and Kansas.

The Dakotas can expect widespread, moderate to severe surpluses in the east leading across the border into Minnesota. The Great Lakes Region will experience deficits in northeastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Widespread surpluses are forecast in the southern half of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula and south into most of Indiana, northwestern Ohio, and central Kentucky. Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in southeastern Michigan and northeastern Indiana.

Surpluses will also be widespread in New York’s Finger Lakes region. A few pockets of deficit are forecast in the U.S. Northeast, including intense deficits near Lake Champlain in Vermont and moderate to severe deficits west of Moosehead Lake in Maine. On the East Coast, widespread deficits of varying intensity are forecast from Maryland through Peninsular Florida. Deficits will be severe in the Delmarva Peninsula and extreme to exceptional from south-central Virginia through Columbia, South Carolina. In Peninsular Florida, deficits will be widespread and intense in many regions, including near Lake George in the north and Lake Okeechobee in the south.

Outside the contiguous U.S., Alaska can expect deficits in the northeast and near Anchorage and Valdez in the south. Areas of surplus include Noatak and Gates of the Arctic National Preserves, Nome, the area west of Bethel, and the eastern reaches of the Alaska Range. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected in Hawaii and moderate to extreme deficits in Puerto Rico.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March indicates intense deficits on the East Coast from the Delmarva Peninsula through South Carolina. Deficits will increase in Florida as surpluses transition. Anomalies will be intense in Peninsular Florida. Deficits will increase in the Southern Plains and beyond, covering central and eastern Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, nearly all of Texas, and much of Louisiana. Deficits will be exceptional in New Mexico, pockets of East Texas, and around the Toledo Bend Reservoir in Louisiana. Deficits are also forecast in southeastern Arkansas, east-central Missouri, central Mississippi, and the Alabama River.

Widespread surpluses are forecast in Michigan’s Lower Peninsula, the Ohio River Basin, and through much of New York, Pennsylvania, and into New England. Anomalies will be severe in Michigan and New York. Mixed conditions are expected in the far Northeast. In the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, extreme surpluses will persist in the Dakotas from Fargo past Sioux Falls and surpluses will emerge in northeastern Iowa and east-central Wisconsin. Deficits will persist from northern Minnesota through the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

In the West, pockets of surplus are forecast in Pacific Coast States including in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Intense deficits are forecast in the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho and the Green River region of western Wyoming, but deficits will moderate in western Montana. Surpluses are expected in southern Idaho, north-central Nevada, northern Utah, southern Wyoming and along the North Platte River into Nebraska, and western Colorado into Utah.

From April through June, many regions east of the Mississippi River will return to normal. Moderate deficits are expected from North Carolina’s southern tip through southeastern Georgia, and severe deficits in Florida. In the Northern Plains, surpluses will increase from the eastern region of the Dakotas into Minnesota. Deficits will shrink in the Southern Plains but remain widespread in central and northern Texas and into Oklahoma and throughout New Mexico. Widespread deficits will emerge in Arizona and moderate deficits in Death Valley as surpluses in California shrink. Surpluses will persist in southeastern Idaho and increase in north-central Nevada and the east crossing into Utah. Some small, isolated pockets of surplus will persist in the Pacific Northwest. In Colorado, deficits will persist in the center of the state and surpluses in the west.

The forecast for the final months – July through September – indicates persistent surpluses in the eastern reaches of the Dakotas. Widespread deficits, generally moderate, are forecast from southern Pennsylvania through the South Atlantic and Deep South into Louisiana and pockets north along the Mississippi. Some moderate deficits will linger in the Southern Plains, particularly the Panhandle regions. Mixed conditions are forecast in pockets of the Rockies and Pacific Northwest as deficits emerge, and mild to moderate deficits are expected in California.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A massive snowstorm on the East Coast left hundreds of drivers stranded overnight on a 40-mile stretch of highway in Virginia approaching Washington, D.C. in early January. What began as rain turned to sleet then snow, dumping more than a foot of the white stuff in the Fredericksburg, Virginia region. Thousands of vehicle accidents were reported up and down the coast; five people died in Maryland, Tennessee, and Georgia from storm-related incidents; and thousands of customers from Virginia to Tennessee lost power.

Another winter blast in the middle of the month returned treacherous conditions to the eastern seaboard. Thousands of flights were canceled and over a hundred thousand people were left without power in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. In Buffalo, New York 17.8 inches of snow fell, doubling the all-time daily January record.

Drought, high winds, and warm temperatures conspired to produce one of the most destructive wildfires in Colorado history at the end of December. The Marshall Fire struck between Denver and Boulder, destroying 1,000 homes and burning 6,200 acres. One person died and 35,000 were evacuated. Damages are estimated at $513 million.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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