Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook February 2022

3 February 2022

OVERVIEW
Commanding attention in the February 2022 Outlook, much warmer than normal temperatures are expected to blanket Russia including a vast blob of exceptionally hotter temperatures. Yunnan, China will be much wetter than normal and Northern Europe can expect precipitation surpluses.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
The forecast for East Asia indicates extreme to exceptional surpluses in Yunnan and surpluses of generally lesser intensity reaching into Yunnan’s eastern neighbors, and north through Sichuan and beyond. In southern China, Hainan will be wetter than normal as will the nearby Leizhou Peninsula on the mainland and Taiwan. Precipitation deficits are expected across much of China’s northern breadth from Xinjiang through northern Gansu and much of Inner Mongolia, Beijing and Shandong, around the Bohai Sea, and into the Nen River (Nenjiang) Basin in Northeast China. Deficits will be moderate overall with some severe pockets, particularly in Xinjiang.

ISciences Precipitation Forecast Feb 2022 — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Precipitation deficits are forecast on the Korean Peninsula, moderate in the south but reaching severe intensity in parts of the north. Japan, too, can expect drier than normal conditions and moderate deficits are expected in several regions of Mongolia.

Many regions of Southeast Asia and some regions in the Pacific can expect to be wetter than normal. Surpluses will be moderate in Southeast Asia with more intense anomalies in coastal and northern Vietnam. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in the Philippines, and surpluses are also expected in Malaysia; Brunei; pockets of Indonesia including Aceh, Java, Sulawesi, and the Maluku Islands; and pockets in the Central Highlands of New Guinea. The island of New Britain, however, will be moderately drier than normal.

Australia’s Channel Country and nearby Mulga Lands regions from South Australia into Queensland can expect somewhat wetter than normal conditions as can Eighty Mile Beach in Western Australia. A few small pockets of moderate precipitation deficit are forecast in the Eyre Peninsula west of Adelaide. In New Zealand, moderate surpluses are forecast for the northwest corner of South Island.

In South Asia, the Ganges Plain and Delta will be wetter than normal with surpluses reaching into Nepal’s eastern half, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Surpluses will be moderate overall but more intense along the Brahmaputra River in India’s Far Northeast. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in the Narmada River Basin in central Madhya Pradesh, India, and in the Indus River region of Jammu and Kashmir leading into northern Pakistan. Moderate deficits are also forecast in southwestern Pakistan and southern Afghanistan.

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in several regions of Central Asia including most of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan’s western half, southern Kazakhstan, and northeast of Lake Balkhash. In Asian Russia, conditions will be moderately wetter than normal throughout the vast Western Siberian Plain and in northern Sakha Republic (Yakutia). In European Russia, moderate surpluses are expected in the Volga Uplands and Trans Volga leading into the Vychegda Lowland, and in Karelia and Murmansk.

Widespread precipitation surpluses are expected across Northern Europe in Scotland, the Baltics, Finland, Scandinavia, and Iceland, and in the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, and Czech Republic. Surpluses will be moderate in most regions but severe in southwestern Norway and severe to extreme in the Scottish Highlands. Regions with a forecast of drier than normal conditions include the Iberian Peninsula, France, and Italy. Deficits will be moderate overall but severe in Corsica, Sardinia, and from Galicia, Spain into Portugal.

Across the Strait of Gibraltar in Africa, moderate precipitation deficits are forecast for Morocco and Tunisia, and moderate to severe deficits in northern Algeria. Conditions will also be drier than normal in nations along the Gulf of Guinea from Côte d'Ivoire through Republic of the Congo. Anomalies will be exceptional in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea and severe as they reach into Cameroon and neighboring nations in the interior. Severe pockets are also expected in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana.

Ethiopia will be somewhat drier than normal as will pockets of southern Somalia, west-central Uganda, and northeastern Kenya. Southern Kenya, however, will be wetter than normal with surpluses reaching extreme intensity in the region surrounding Nairobi. Moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast for Tanzania’s eastern half and moderate surpluses in a pocket of northern Zambia. Pockets of moderate precipitation deficit are expected in Mozambique, southern Malawi, Zimbabwe, and western Madagascar.

In the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will be moderately drier than normal. Some precipitation surpluses are forecast for southeastern Yemen and northwestern Turkey.

The precipitation forecast for South America indicates surpluses in the north from Venezuela through the Guianas and the Guiana Highlands. Surpluses are also forecast in a few regions of Colombia and will be intense in a pocket north of Cali. Brazil’s Northeast Region will see precipitation deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional. Moderate deficits are expected in scattered pockets of northern Peru but deficits will be more widespread in the south. Moderate surpluses are forecast throughout Paraguay reaching across the border into Brazil and Argentina’s northeastern spur. Surpluses will be severe in central Paraguay. In the small northwestern provinces of Argentina, intense deficits are forecast, while generally moderate surpluses are expected farther south in the wine-growing region that includes Mendoza Province and reaching into La Pampa Province. Chile can expect mixed conditions in the north and moderate deficits in the south leading into Patagonian Argentina.

Mixed conditions are also expected in Central America including surpluses in southern Nicaragua and deficits in the northeast and into Honduras. In the Caribbean, Cuba and the Bahamas will be moderately drier than normal and Jamaica will be somewhat wetter than usual.

Moderate deficits are forecast in central Mexico from Jalisco into Hidalgo, and in a small pocket in the center of the Baja Peninsula. Coastal Oaxaca in southern Mexico will be wetter than normal.

The Pacific Coast states of the United States will experience widespread moderate precipitation deficits. Moderate deficits are also forecast in much of Peninsular Florida though deficits will be extreme in the Everglades. In the center of the country, surpluses are forecast in states along the Lower and Middle Mississippi River from Louisiana through Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, and into Wisconsin, and east through Indiana, much of Ohio, and across the border into southern Michigan. Surpluses will be moderate overall but severe in Missouri, central Illinois, and central Indiana. Alaska can expect widespread surpluses.

Moderately wetter than normal conditions are forecast in several regions of Canada including Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, central Manitoba, central Saskatchewan, pockets of Alberta, and northern British Columbia. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in the western reaches of Northwest Territories and severe surpluses in western Yukon. The Vancouver area will be somewhat drier than normal as will the western portion of Baffin Island in Nunavut.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
A vast expanse of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures is forecast in Russia - a bright red belt on the map below - reaching from the Trans Volga Region through the Ural Mountains, Siberia, and well into the Far East. Nearly all the remaining extent of Russia will see heat anomalies of varying intensity, moderate in European Russia but generally severe to extreme elsewhere. Intensely warmer temperatures will cross the border into Kazakhstan, downgrading as they reach through the nation. Mildly warmer than normal temperatures are expected in Central Asia.

ISciences Temperature Forecast Feb 2022 — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In East Asia, intense heat anomalies are forecast in Northeast China, moderating as they reach the Bohai Sea and cross the border into North Korea. Much of Mongolia will be spared though some moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast along its Russian border. In Xinjiang, China, moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected in the northern tip surrounding the city of Altay. Several regions of China can expect to be cooler than normal including much of Tibet (Xizang), southwestern Qinghai, northern Sichuan, eastern Yunnan, and Guangxi. Cool anomalies will be severe to exceptional in central Tibet. Relatively normal temperatures are forecast for Taiwan and much of Japan though Hokkaido can expect severe warm anomalies.

The forecast for Southeast Asia includes cooler than normal temperatures for northern Vietnam but moderately warmer than normal conditions in the coastal south, becoming severe in the Mekong Delta. Moderate warm anomalies are forecast in pockets of Cambodia and in western Thailand, and warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected around the Gulf of Thailand. Peninsular Malaysia will be somewhat warmer than normal but Malaysian Borneo will experience severe heat anomalies as will much of Indonesian Borneo, with anomalies becoming extreme in the northeast and southeast. Extremely to exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast throughout the Pacific region including Indonesia and New Guinea. Anomalies will be exceptional in many areas particularly Sulawesi, Timor, and the Bird’s Head Peninsula of New Guinea. The central and southern Philippines will also be warmer than normal with exceptionally hotter temperatures in central regions.

The outlook for Australia indicates warm anomalies in Top End, Northern Territory; Far North, Queensland; the southern tip of Western Australia; Victoria’s southeast coast through Melbourne; and Tasmania. Western Tasmania will be extremely hotter than normal. Back in mainland Australia, a moderately cooler than normal pocket is forecast in New South Wales in the middle region of the Lachlan River catchment. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected in New Zealand, but New Caledonia will be exceptionally hotter than normal.

In South Asia, southern India will be much warmer than normal with exceptional warm anomalies in southern Tamil Nadu and extreme anomalies in much of the remainder of the state. Anomalies will also be extreme in Kerala and southern Karnataka, and severe to extreme in Andhra Pradesh but will moderate as they reach north. Much of the Ganges Plain and Delta will be cooler than normal and will include exceptionally cooler conditions. Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh can also expect to be cooler than normal. In Sri Lanka, severe to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast, and exceptional anomalies in the Maldives. Near-normal temperatures are predicted for Pakistan and Afghanistan though Afghanistan’s Ghazni Province will be moderately warmer than normal.

Southwest Yemen in the Middle East will much hotter than normal. Moderately cooler than normal temperatures are expected in pockets of its northwestern region reaching across into Saudi Arabia, and also in southeastern Saudi Arabia. Hormozgan Province along the southern Persian Gulf in Iran will be moderately warmer than normal with similar conditions in neighboring Fars and Kerman Provinces.

A vast extent of cool anomalies is forecast in Africa encompassing the central and eastern portions of the Sahara and Sahel and reaching south through Central African Republic (CAR) and neighboring nations. Anomalies will be exceptional in CAR and northern Cameroon. Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in the continent’s northwest quadrant with moderate to exceptional anomalies in Morocco, Western Sahara, and Mauritania. Generally moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in coastal areas of nations along the Gulf of Guinea from Côte d'Ivoire into Gabon, and reaching into the Congos.

In the Horn of Africa, exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast for southern Ethiopia and its Ogaden region in the east, and Kenya’s northwestern corner. Southern Somalia will see moderately warmer temperatures that will reach into Kenya where anomalies will become more intense on the coast. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in northern and western Madagascar. Some moderately warmer pockets are forecast in northwestern and southern Mozambique though a moderately cool pocket is predicted along the northeast coast.

South Africa’s northeastern provinces will be moderately to severely warmer than the norm. Temperatures will be moderately warmer in Eswatini and northern Lesotho, and also in the northern reaches of Northern Cape, South Africa, and from Eastern Cape into Western Cape. Elsewhere, cooler than normal conditions are forecast near Algeria’s north-central coast, along the northern border of Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the southeastern Congo Basin west of Lake Tanganyika.

While normal temperatures are expected in the most of the Balkan region and Italy, much of the remainder of Europe will be somewhat warmer than the norm. Western European Russia will be moderately warmer than normal with similar conditions in the Baltics, Eastern Europe, southern Sweden, and northern Poland and Germany. Moderate warm anomalies are also forecast for Norway’s southern half but will become extreme in the far south and extreme to exceptional through Denmark. Much of the United Kingdom will be moderately warmer than normal as will French regions along the English Channel. Wales and Ireland will experience severe warm anomalies.

The Alps regions of France, Switzerland, and Italy can expect moderate warm anomalies as can the central Pyrenees. The western half of the Iberian Peninsula will be warmer than normal with moderate anomalies overall but severe anomalies in Andalucía, Spain, and northern Portugal.

In South America, normal temperatures are forecast for Brazil’s northern state of Roraima and its southern states, but the remainder of the country will be warmer than normal with widespread exceptional anomalies in the northeast, downgrading as they reach into the Guianas. A pocket in central Venezuela will be cooler than normal but moderate warm anomalies are forecast around Lake Maracaibo. Western Brazil will be moderately warmer as will much of central Peru. Moderate warm anomalies are also forecast for Peru’s northwestern corner reaching into Colombia. North-central Ecuador will experience moderate warm anomalies but cool anomalies will skirt its southern coast and trail along Peru’s northern coastline.

Paraguay will be cooler than normal and conditions will reach into Bolivia and Argentina. Western Bolivia, however, can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies that will become extreme as they cross the border into Argentina. The northern Pampas in Argentina will be somewhat cooler than normal, while moderate warm anomalies are predicted in Patagonia. Chile can expect moderate warm anomalies near Santiago and Valparaiso in the center of the nation and near the Gulf of Corcovado in the south.

Several regions of Central American and the Caribbean will be warmer than normal. Anomalies will be moderate in Belize, El Salvador, and western Honduras, and moderate to extreme in Guatemala. Exceptionally hotter than normal temperature are forecast in the Bahamas and Jamaica, extreme warm anomalies in Cuba, and generally less intense anomalies on Hispaniola.

The Yucatan and southern Mexico will be moderately warmer than normal. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in central Mexico with severe anomalies in coastal Nayarit and Jalisco, and from Guanajuato reaching north. In northern Mexico, Chihuahua and Durango will be moderately warmer and warm anomalies are forecast for Baja’s southernmost tip.

Temperatures in the United States are expected to be relatively normal. Mildly warmer temperatures are expected in the East and Deep South but anomalies will be moderate in Peninsular Florida, east-central Georgia, and a narrow path following the Atlantic Coast, becoming more widespread in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Western Alaska will be moderately warmer than normal, Hawaii will see severe warm anomalies, and Puerto Rico can expect extremely to exceptionally hotter temperatures.

Canada will experience relatively normal temperatures though Nova Scotia will be moderately warmer than usual and cool anomalies are forecast in eastern Nunavut.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released February 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for February 2022 through October 2022 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued January 25 through January 31, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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