Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook January 2022

4 January 2022

OVERVIEW
The January Outlook indicates much wetter than normal conditions in the Xingu River watershed of northern Brazil and from Rajasthan, India into southern Pakistan. Several regions of the world can expect to be exceptionally hotter than normal including Indonesia and a vast belt from eastern Kazakhstan to Lake Baikal.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In South America, widespread precipitation surpluses are expected in Pará, Brazil, including extreme to exceptional surpluses in the Xingu River watershed. Surpluses of lesser intensity will reach through neighboring states to the north, east, and south. Moderate surpluses are forecast for western Minas Gerais in the nation’s Southeast Region.

Moderate precipitation shortages are expected in north-central Guyana, and moderate to severe deficits in northwestern Venezuela and northern Peru reaching into southern Ecuador where deficits will be exceptional. Some of Peru’s southern coastal regions can expect moderate deficits, and severe deficits are forecast in Madre de Dios Department near Brazil.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Relatively normal precipitation is forecast for Central America and the Caribbean, but intense surpluses are predicted for southern Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate shortages are expected along Mexico’s southern Gulf Coast, in the northern state of Chihuahua, and in the Colorado River Delta and nearby regions bordering the northern shore of the Gulf of California.

Precipitation deficits in north-central Mexico will reach into the southern United States in the Big Bend region of Texas. Moderate deficits are also forecast in southeastern New Mexico reaching across the border into the Texas Panhandle. Some small pockets of moderate surplus are expected scattered throughout the Rockies, and moderate surpluses are forecast in Montana between the Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers. Much of the Ohio River watershed will see moderate surplus precipitation as well. Hawaii will be wetter than normal and Alaska will be drier than normal in the south and the northeast.

In eastern Canada, Newfoundland, New Breton Island, and Prince Edward Island will be moderately wetter than normal. Drier than normal conditions ranging from moderate to severe are forecast from central Nord-du-Québec on Hudson Bay, around James Bay, through Northern Ontario, and into northeastern Manitoba. Moderate to severe deficits are also predicted from northern Saskatchewan well into Northwest Territories where deficits may be extreme near Yellowknife. Parts of the Yukon will be moderately drier than normal as will southernmost Nunavut. Exceptional deficits are expected in northern Baffin Island and deficits of varying intensity in the northern reaches of Nunavut.

Mediterranean Europe will be moderately drier than normal in Italy and much of the Balkan region. The U.K. and Ireland can expect moderate precipitation surpluses and similarly wet conditions are forecast in Belgium, northern Germany, western Poland, Denmark, southern Scandinavia, Estonia, Latvia, and pockets of western European Russia.

The Ob River region of Russia will be moderately wetter than normal as will the Ural River watershed with surpluses reaching north to the city of Ufa. Many regions in Russia’s Far East will be wetter than normal, with surpluses becoming intense along the East Siberian Sea. In Central Asia, some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in northern Kazakhstan and moderate deficits near Almaty, around the Aral Sea, and in central Kyrgyzstan.

Surpluses are forecast for several regions in the Middle East. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected across southern Iran. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for parts of the Arabian Peninsula including northern Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, southern Iraq, southern Saudi Arabia and southern and eastern Yemen. Moderate surpluses are forecast in pockets of the Levant.

Wetter than normal conditions will extend into northern Egypt. Elsewhere in Africa, northern Ethiopia, the Highlands, much of Eritrea, and western Somaliland will be wetter than normal. Other regions with a forecast of precipitation surplus include northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), southeastern Angola into Botswana, northern Orange Free State in South Africa, and along the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea. The seaport city of Port-Gentil in Gabon and the region nearby will be much drier than normal.

Precipitation surpluses are forecast for the nations of South Asia. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are predicted from Rajasthan and Gujarat in western India into Sindh in southern Pakistan. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast for northern India, the western Gangetic Plain, parts of Madhya Pradesh, eastern Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal. Surpluses will be severe in Odisha. From easternmost Nepal into western Bhutan, moderately wetter than normal conditions are forecast. Along with exceptionally wetter conditions in southeastern Pakistan, surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the remainder of the country’s southern two-thirds. In Afghanistan, widespread moderate surpluses are forecast in the south, reaching extreme intensity in the Hamoun Wetlands. Moderate surpluses are forecast near Kabul.

In East Asia, Xinjiang in western China will be moderately drier than the norm with conditions reaching east into neighboring provinces; Tibet will be wetter than normal. Moderate wet surpluses are forecast in central Sichuan and from eastern Yunnan through northern Guangxi, southern Guizhou, and central Hunan. Far Northeast China can also expect moderate surpluses. Scattered, moderate deficits are forecast in Mongolia and in Honshu, Japan, and a pocket of moderate surplus is predicted west of Sapporo.

In Southeast Asia and the Pacific, conditions will be wetter than normal in much of Thailand and western Cambodia, and pockets in Laos, Vietnam, and throughout Peninsular Malaysia. Surpluses will be moderate overall but may be severe in central Thailand and around Tonlé Sap in Cambodia. Sumatra will be wetter than normal with severe to extreme surpluses in Aceh Province. The Lesser Sunda Islands will be moderately drier than normal as will the central Papuan Peninsula (Bird’s Tail Peninsula).

Australia and New Zealand can expect relatively normal precipitation though moderate to severe deficits are forecast in Tasmania and small pockets of moderate deficit in South Island, New Zealand.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Warmer than normal temperatures of varying intensity are forecast in Central Asia and southern and eastern Russia. In western Kazakhstan, anomalies will be moderate to severe, becoming extreme in the center of the county and exceptional in its eastern half. These conditions will bleed well across the northern border into Russia with exceptionally hotter temperatures reaching to Lake Baikal. From there, warm anomalies will stretch east to the Seas of Japan and Okhotsk and north to the East Siberian Sea through exceptionally hotter than normal conditions in central Sakha Republic (Yakutia). Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and severe to extreme anomalies in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In East Asia, Xinjiang in northwest China will be exceptionally hotter than normal north of the Tarim River including the region’s capital, Urumqi. Exceptionally hotter temperatures will reach through western Mongolia with warm anomalies of varying intensity throughout the rest of the nation. China’s vast Northeast will be warmer than normal, with exceptionally hotter temperatures in much of Heilongjiang. Beijing and the surrounding region will also be exceptionally hotter, and warm anomalies ranging from severe to extreme are expected in the Yellow River Basin. Southeast China will be moderately warmer than normal but severe anomalies are forecast for Taiwan. Yunnan in southern China will be much warmer than normal, while western Tibet will be cooler than the norm.

South Korea is forecast to be moderately warmer than normal as is much of North Korea though anomalies will be severe in the northeast. Honshu, Japan will be moderately warmer around Kyoto, but severe warm anomalies are forecast for Hokkaido in northern Japan.

Widespread warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Temperatures will be exceptionally hotter in Myanmar, northeastern Thailand, northern Laos, the central Philippines, Malaysian Borneo, and much of Indonesia.

Many regions of Australia and New Zealand can expect to be warmer than normal as well. Eastern and southeastern Australia will be moderately warmer overall but much of the vast Outback will see exceptionally hotter temperatures. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for Tasmania and New Zealand, and severe anomalies in New Caledonia.

In South Asia, India’s southern half will be much warmer than the norm with exceptionally hotter temperatures forecast for southern Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. In the east, Odisha, northeastern Andhra Pradesh, and land-locked Chhattisgarh will also be exceptionally hotter. India’s Far Northeast can expect severe to extreme heat anomalies and similar conditions are forecast through the Karakoram Range in Jammu and Kashmir and into northern Pakistan. Punjab Province in eastern Pakistan will be moderately warmer than normal, and northern Afghanistan can expect moderate to severe heat anomalies. A cool pocket is forecast in northeastern Uttar Pradesh, India. Some regions of Nepal and western Bangladesh will also be cooler than normal.

Temperatures in the Middle East will be relatively normal overall though southwestern Yemen will be intensely hotter as will coastal Al Mahrah Governate. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia and Cyprus. Moderately warmer than normal temperatures are expected in the Syrian Desert spanning the borders of Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, and also from Aleppo into Turkey and pockets of Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Warm anomalies, severe overall, are forecast to blanket much of Central and Eastern Europe, moderating as they reach through the northern U.K. and Ireland, southern Scandinavia, and southern European Russia. Warm anomalies will be extreme in the central Alps and pockets of Denmark, and moderate to severe in southern Italy and the northern Iberian Peninsula.

In Africa, exceptionally hotter than normal conditions are forecast in the Horn and anomalies of lesser intensity in the Ethiopian Highlands. Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected in many regions of Madagascar and warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in coastal and land-locked nations of East Africa from Kenya through Mozambique. Angola and southern and western DRC will be moderately warmer than normal. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are predicted in pockets from West Africa around the Gulf of Guinea and will include exceptional conditions. Several regions in North Africa will be somewhat warmer than normal. Cool anomalies are forecast from northern DRC into eastern Central African Republic, from southeastern South Sudan into Ethiopia, and southern Namibia.

Brazil’s easternmost provinces can expect severe to extreme heat anomalies, while moderate to severe anomalies are forecast in the Southeast Region. Moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in western Brazil and a pocket in the north spanning Pará and Maranhão, though the Maicuru River watershed in northern Pará will be cooler than the norm. Elsewhere in South America, moderately warmer than normal temperatures will form a vast path from southern Colombia through eastern Ecuador and much of Peru, with some severe pockets in northeastern Peru and northwest of Cusco in the south. Intensely hotter temperatures are forecast from Lake Titicaca through western Bolivia including La Paz, downgrading somewhat as they reach into Argentina. Cooler than normal conditions are expected from central Bolivia through the Chaco regions of Paraguay and Argentina. Moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast surrounding Santiago, Chile and into Argentina, and pockets in eastern Argentina. Likewise, moderate warm anomalies are forecast in the Guiana Highlands of Venezuela and Guyana. A cool pocket is predicted in the central Orinoco River watershed.

In Central America, Guatemala, Belize and Honduras will be warmer than normal with exceptionally hotter temperatures in Belize. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected throughout the Caribbean with extremely to exceptionally hotter temperatures in the Bahamas and Jamaica.

Many regions of Mexico will be much warmer than the norm with extreme to exceptional anomalies in the south and the Yucatan, and severe to exceptional anomalies in central and north-central states.

Temperatures will be relatively normal in the United States overall. West Texas and southern Texas will be moderately warmer than normal and moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for New Mexico. Florida will be moderately warmer north of Orlando but severe heat anomalies are expected in the south, becoming extreme from Miami to the southern coast and exceptional in the Keys. Severe warm anomalies are forecast in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Somewhat cooler than normal temperatures are expected around Lake Oahe in South Dakota and from northwestern North Dakota into Saskatchewan.

Moderate cool anomalies are also expected in in the Beaver River region of west-central Saskatchewan, Canada, and the Peace River region of northwestern Alberta. Much of Nunavut, in Canada’s vast north, will be warmer than normal.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released January 3, 2022 which includes forecasts for January 2022 through September 2022 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued December 25 through December 31, 2021.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags