ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST JANUARY 2022

14 January 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in October 2021 and running through September 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List January 14, 2022(pdf).

United States: The forecast through March indicates water deficits from Virginia through South Carolina, and in Florida, New Mexico, and the Southern Plains. Surpluses will persist from Michigan into New England, and in the eastern region of the Dakotas.

Canada: The forecast through March indicates water conditions like those of the prior three months: widespread deficits, less in the southern Prairie Provinces, and surpluses in eastern Labrador, the Gaspé Peninsula, northwestern Saskatchewan, and southern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits in Mexico’s north-central states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango, and in Baja and Jalisco. Areas of surplus include Honduras, Nicaragua, Jamaica, and Cuba.

South America: The forecast through March indicates widespread water surpluses in the Amazon Basin, Southeast Brazil, and Bolivia. Areas of deficit include western Venezuela into Colombia, from southern Brazil through Uruguay into eastern Argentina, and Chile.

Europe: The forecast through March indicates widespread water surpluses in western European Russia, Nordic Europe, Ireland, and the northern U.K. Central Europe can expect pockets of surplus. Areas of deficit include France, Italy, the Iberian Peninsula, and Estonia.

Africa: The forecast through March indicates intense water deficits in central Sudan and from southeastern Nigeria through Cameroon. Areas of surplus include southeastern Sudan, central and southwestern Nigeria, western Tanzania, and the Vaal River catchment of South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through March indicates near-normal water conditions in much of the region along with persistent and emerging surpluses. Areas of surplus include central Syria, Cyprus, central Israel, Gaza, West Bank, Medina Province in Saudi Arabia, and the central Zagros Mountains of Iran.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through March indicates water deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau; from Trans-Volga though Tyumen Oblast; and Mangystau, Kazakhstan. Surpluses are expected in the Western Siberian Plain, east of Baikal, and Western European Russia.

South Asia: The forecast through March indicates widespread water surpluses in India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Regions with a forecast of exceptional surplus include Nepal, West Bengal, Kerala, Karnataka, and Pakistan. Deficits will persist in India’s Far Northeast.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through March indicates that water surpluses will remain widespread and intense in much of Southeast Asia but will shrink and downgrade in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Pacific regions.

East Asia: The forecast through March indicates widespread, intense water surpluses from Northeast China through the Yellow River Basin and in North Korea. Deficits in Southeast China will shrink but anomalies in Guangdong will become exceptional.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through March indicates that water surpluses in eastern Australia will shrink slightly and downgrade but remain widespread. Deficits will increase slightly along the coast from Melbourne into South Australia and in western Tasmania.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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