Africa: Water deficits in the Horn will downgrade

21 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September indicates widespread water deficits across northern Africa including many areas of exceptional deficit.

Surpluses are forecast in large pockets of the Sahel and will be exceptional around Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali and central and north-central Nigeria, and extreme in southeastern Niger’s Zinder region. North-central Chad can expect surpluses as can southeastern Sudan. Anomalies will be intense in Sudan between the White Nile and the Atbara Rivers and reaching into Eritrea and the Tigray and Afar regions of northern Ethiopia.

In West Africa, deficits are forecast in Guinea Bissau. Moderate surpluses are expected in pockets along the northern Gulf of Guinea and will be widespread in southern Ghana and southwestern Nigeria. Severe to exceptional deficits are predicted in southeastern Nigeria reaching through central and southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon.

In the heart of the continent, widespread deficits are forecast in the vast northern region of the Congo River Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Anomalies will be moderate to severe overall but exceptional in the Upper Uele River region.

In the Horn of Africa, intense deficits are forecast in Somaliland and southern Somalia reaching inland from Mogadishu. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) along with exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley.

Widespread moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in Tanzania, but widespread intense deficits are predicted for neighboring nations to the south including Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia. In Madagascar, deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the west.

Elsewhere, pockets of deficit are forecast in northwestern and southwestern Angola, Eswatini, and Lesotho. Areas of surplus include the Vaal and Mogalakwena River catchments in South Africa, the path of the Molopo River, and Western Cape. Anomalies will be extreme in the Vaal region.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March indicates a patchwork of conditions in northern Africa, including moderate deficits in Mauritania and Morocco, and surpluses in Egypt. Surpluses are also forecast in Niger’s Zinder region, northern Chad, southeastern Sudan into Eritrea, along the northern Gulf of Guinea, southwestern Nigeria, and central Nigeria where anomalies will be intense. Intense deficits are forecast in north-central Sudan, southeastern Nigeria, and Cameroon. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Ghana and the northern Congo Basin. A pocket of deficit is forecast in central Ethiopia including Addis Ababa, and exceptional deficits will span the nation’s southeastern border into Somalia. Widespread surpluses will persist in Tanzania, particularly in the west, and a pocket of surplus is expected in central Kenya. Some pockets of deficit will linger in Zambia, Mozambique, and Madagascar. In South Africa, surpluses will persist in Western Cape, along the Molopo River, and the Mogalakwena River catchment, and increase in the Vaal River catchment.

The forecast for April through June indicates that deficits will increase in North Africa and will be intense in Egypt, southeastern Libya, and northern Sudan. Surpluses will shrink around the northern Gulf of Guinea and persist in central and north-central Nigeria and from southeastern Sudan into Eritrea. Conditions will normalize overall in the remainder of the continent, but surpluses are expected in Nugaal, pockets of the Ethiopian Highlands, Kenya, eastern Uganda, Tanzania, and South Africa.

In the final quarter – July through September – intense deficits will increase in North Africa and emerge in eastern Kenya and Zambia. Surpluses are forecast primarily in southern Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Nugaal, western Kenya, and several aforementioned regions of South Africa.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in North Africa has suppressed cereal production in several countries, furthering the likelihood that grain imports in Africa will rise as global stocks run low and prices run high. Accumulated precipitation deficits during the rainy season - August through December - for Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia were well into double digits, with a 48 percent shortfall in Tunisia.

In response to the drought, Morocco has earmarked 3 billion dirhams (USD $323.6 million) to finance new dams and desalination plants. January dam levels in the nation were at 34 percent compared to 40.6 percent last January.

Flooding has affected several regions of Africa recently. According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, flooding in South Sudan since May has ruined 37,624 tons of cereals and left 65,107 hectares of land submerged.

South Africa has declared a national disaster after heavy rainfall in January left several regions flooded. The declaration paves the way for flood-damage funding and comes as the nation has been under a prior disaster declaration for the covid pandemic since March 2020. Widespread flooding was reported in KwaZulu-Natal Province, and evacuations were ordered along the Vaal River in North West Province. Flash flooding in Eastern Cape claimed at least seven lives.

Ten deaths have been reported after heavy rains produced flooding in Madagascar’s capital, Antananarivo.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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