Canada: Widespread water deficits to persist

21 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through September indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in many regions in the nation’s eastern half. Deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland, the Miramichi River watershed in east-central New Brunswick, the Smallwood Reservoir region in Labrador, the Manicouagan Reservoir region in Quebec and from Gouin Reservoir past Lake Mistassini, and the lower Saint-Maurice River region as it empties into the St. Lawrence between Montreal and Quebec City.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in much of Southern Ontario though a belt of surplus is forecast west of Toronto. Exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along the border with Quebec reaching James Bay. Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario and will include exceptional anomalies in Kenora District.

In the Prairie Provinces, nearly normal conditions are forecast across the south with deficits east of Winnipeg and near Calgary. Exceptional deficits will belt central Manitoba and are also forecast in the province’s northeast reaching Hudson Bay. Central Saskatchewan can expect deficits, though surpluses are forecast in the northwest quadrant leading west to Fort McMurray, Alberta. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the Middle Athabasca River region in Alberta and in the northwest.

Surpluses are forecast across much of southern British Columbia (BC) with intense anomalies in West Kootenay, and intense deficits in the Upper Fraser River Watershed and much of BC’s far north, reaching well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March indicates conditions much like those observed in the prior three months: widespread deficits in many areas, less pervasive in the southern region of the Prairie Provinces, and surpluses in eastern Labrador, the Gaspé Peninsula, northwestern Saskatchewan, and southern B.C. The forecast for the major metropolitan areas includes near-normal conditions in Quebec City; deficits near Montreal, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, and Calgary; and surpluses in Toronto. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in southwestern B.C. but will remain intense in the Kelowna area.

From April through June, deficits will shrink somewhat and near-normal conditions will return to southern regions of the Prairie Provinces. Large pockets of intense deficit will persist in Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba’s northern half. Deficits of varying intensity will persist in central Saskatchewan; the Middle Athabasca River watershed and central and northwestern Alberta; and in B.C. from the Upper Fraser River Watershed leading north into the Yukon. Surpluses in the nation’s far east will nearly disappear, intense surpluses will persist in northwestern Saskatchewan, and moderate surpluses will increase in southern B.C.

The forecast for the final months – July through September – indicates widespread deficits from Manitoba into Labrador though the extent of exceptional deficits will shrink somewhat. Widespread surpluses will persist in northwestern Saskatchewan, and pockets of moderate surplus will linger in southern B.C.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought has forced Canada into a role reversal - from major barley exporter to importer. The barley harvest was so poor that Canada is looking to France for grain supplies needed in the production of beer and animal feed. Usually able to serve its own market, the recent Canadian barley crop was reduced by a third due to drought and heat through the Prairie Provinces.

Meanwhile, barley growers in the eastern Canadian province of Prince Edward Island have been getting calls from new customers unable to source barley from Western Canada or the U.S. after disappointing harvests. P.E.I., however, has a limited supply, already committed to existing clients.

Western Canada’s corn crop, too, was severely impacted by drought, leaving ranchers to turn south to the U.S. to keep hungry cows satisfied. Nearly 3.2 million metric of tons of corn is on its way north, the most that Canada has accessed from the U.S. in about 20 years.

Mustard seed production in Canada suffered a devastating loss of 50 percent due to drought, sending ripples through France’s prepared mustard manufacturers in Burgundy and sending prices of the condiment soaring. While Canada’s potato crop was up 18 percent over the prior year, widespread flooding in British Columbia cut off transport routes to the coast, leaving MacDonald’s fast-food outlets in Japan to ration French fries.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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