Central Asia & Russia: Widespread, intense water deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau

21 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September indicates exceptional water deficits in western Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region, and moderate to extreme deficits elsewhere in the west, pockets of the south, and in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Northern Kazakhstan can expect intense surpluses in Akmola Region. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in the southeast from Kapchagay Reservoir on the Ile River to the Chinese border, and in eastern Kyrgyzstan. Generally, moderate deficits are predicted for southwestern Kyrgyzstan and western and central Tajikistan.

West of the Urals in Russia, moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the Lower Vyatka River Watershed in Trans-Volga, exceptional surpluses in the Middle Volga region, and surpluses of lesser intensity across the Northern European Plain.

East of the central Urals, deficits are forecast in the Tura River region reaching to Tyumen. Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in the Western Siberian Plain. Intense deficits will span the Gulf of Ob. Deficits are also expected in the Central Siberian Plateau and will be intense north of the Vilyuy Reservoir. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the plateau’s northeast between the Markha and Olenek Rivers. In Irkutsk Oblast north of Lake Baikal, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in a vast area from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering China, while intense deficits are forecast west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March indicates that deficits will increase in Russia from Trans-Volga past the southern Ural Mountains though Tyumen Oblast and will include exceptional anomalies. Exceptional deficits will persist on the Gulf of Ob and increase through the vast Central Siberian Plateau. Deficits will also increase in Irkutsk Oblast and persist west of the Sea of Otkhosk. Surpluses will persist in the Western Siberian Plain, shrinking slightly, and will continue in a vast area from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering Mongolia and China. In Western European Russia, surpluses will increase.

In Central Asia, deficits are expected along Kazakhstan’s north-central border. Moderate deficits are forecast in Mangystau Region and in some pockets elsewhere including the lower region of Ile River near Lake Balkhash, while surpluses are forecast east of the lake. Moderate surpluses are expected north of the Caspian Sea and along the Lower Ural River. Mixed conditions are expected in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, though surpluses will dominate eastern Kyrgyzstan. Some moderate deficits are forecast in west-central Turkmenistan and surpluses in the Tenjen River region of the south. Surpluses are also forecast spanning the north-central Uzbek-Kazakh border.

From April through June, intense surpluses will re-emerge in Akmola Region, Kazakhstan while surpluses in the southeast will shrink as will surpluses nearby in eastern Kyrgyzstan. Deficits in Mangystau will intensify, becoming exceptional in the west, and deficits will emerge northeast of the Caspian as surpluses retreat. Deficits in Russia will shrink and downgrade considerably, particularly in the Central Siberian Plateau where intense surpluses will re-emerge between the Markha and Olenek Rivers. Widespread, moderate surpluses are forecast from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plain.

The forecast for the final months – July through September – indicates that surpluses in Russia will shrink, and deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought and heat are being cited as contributing factors to the decline in pork production in Central Russia as demand rises due to coronavirus-restricted travel. Though African Swine fever is largely to blame, extreme heat caused weight loss and drought pushed production costs up by at least 25 percent.

Critically low 2021 soil-moisture levels in Kazakhstan’s cereal and oilseeds region have set up conditions for drought recurrence, putting flaxseed production at risk. Winter soil moisture was between 20 and 50 percent of long-term averages.

Civil unrest in Kazakhstan sparked by a rise in fuel prices after the government lifted price controls on liquified natural gas has resulted in over 200 deaths. The demonstrations began in oil-rich Mangystau region in western Kazakhstan where a summer drought left 1,000 animals dead and spiked prices for vegetables, meat, and animal feed. Protests that began in Zhanaozen, Mangystau spread to other parts of the country, notably Almaty.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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