Middle East: Water surpluses ahead in Turkey

23 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending October indicates widespread water deficits in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and central and northeastern Iran.

On the Arabian Peninsula, deficits of varying intensity, including exceptional, are forecast throughout much of Saudi Arabia though mixed conditions are expected in the provinces on the northern shore of the Red Sea. Deficits will be intense in United Arab Emirates and severe overall in Qatar. In Yemen, exceptional surpluses are forecast in the northeast corner and deficits along with transitional conditions (pink/purple) in the center of the country.

In Iraq, exceptional deficits are forecast in the south, deficits of varying intensity and transitional conditions west of the Euphrates, and moderate deficits around Baghdad. Iran can expect deficits reaching extreme and exceptional intensity in the northeast and central provinces, and generally moderate deficits in its northwest corner. Surpluses are expected from Tehran to the Caspian Sea Coast, in a pocket of the south near the Strait of Hormuz, throughout Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, and in the Hamoun Wetlands.

Turkey can expect mixed conditions, notably, deficits in the center of the country and in the east with intense pockets in Central Anatolia and southwest of Lake Van, and moderate surpluses in the Kizilirmak River Basin. Mixed conditions are forecast in the Levant including deficits in Lebanon and Syria, and surpluses in central Syria, central Israel, and Cyprus.

In Georgia, intense deficits are expected on the coast including Batumi and a pocket north of the Kura (Mtkvari) River, though surpluses are expected south of the river. Moderate deficits are forecast in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through April indicates near-normal water conditions in many parts of the region. However, moderate deficits are forecast in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and in Yemen’s southwest corner where transitions are also expected. Northwestern Yemen will continue to see intense surpluses. Deficits will be moderate in pockets of central Iran and central Iraq. Georgia can expect exceptional deficits on its central coast and north of Tbilisi. Surpluses are forecast in several regions of Turkey including the Kizilirmak River Basin and along both the Black Sea and Mediterranean Coasts. Intense surpluses will persist in central Syria. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include Cyprus, Israel, West Bank, Gaza, and Tabuk and Medina on the Red Sea Coast in Saudi Arabia. In Iran, surpluses will persist along the central Caspian Coast and into the northeast, the central Zagros Mountains, and near Bandar-e-Abbas in the south. In Georgia, surpluses are forecast south of the Kura River.

From May through July, surpluses in the region will shrink and deficits will increase, becoming widespread in Saudi Arabia and much of Iran. Deficits will be particularly intense in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Esfahan and northern Kerman Provinces in Iran. Surpluses will persist on Iran’s central Caspian Coast. Deficits are forecast in southern Iraq and west of the Euphrates River. Deficits in Azerbaijan will increase while those in Georgia moderate. Surpluses will persist in the Kizilirmak River Basin of Turkey, along the central Mediterranean Coast, and in Cyprus, but deficits will emerge in northeastern Turkey near the coast.

In the final quarter – August through October – deficits will increase in the region, emerging in Turkey and the Levant as surpluses retreat.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
An early February blizzard knocked out power to over 100,000 users in central Turkey, leaving 20,000 in the dark for three days. The snowstorm dumped nearly a meter of snow and forced school closures. A week earlier, heavy snowfall stranded travelers on Istanbul’s E-5 highway, with many simply abandoning vehicles. Public offices and schools were closed. While problematic, the heavy precipitation proved beneficial to the region’s reservoirs, bringing the average water levels up to 55 percent after being reduced by last summer’s drought.

Cyprus, too, was hit with snowfall that closed many roadways, as well as thunderstorms that downed power lines and pushed the Argaka dam well over its 990,000 cubic meter capacity.

Iraq’s man-made Lake Razazza (Lake Milh), 40 kilometers (25 miles) west of Karbala, has shrunk by an estimated 40 percent over the last three decades as drought and water diversion on the Euphrates River deplete its inflows. With no fresh water dribbling in from the Euphrates’ tributaries in nearly 20 years, the remaining water has become so salty that native fish are dying, littering the shore. The change has reduced the local fishing industry from 1,000 anglers to just 50.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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