Central Asia & Russia: Intense water deficits in Central Siberia

24 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October indicates exceptional water deficits in western Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region and in Turkistan Region in the far south, and generally moderate deficits elsewhere in the west and south. In Turkmenistan, deficits will be widespread with extreme to exceptional anomalies. While deficits in Uzbekistan will be less intense overall, they will extend through about two-thirds of the nation, with exceptional deficits in the Fergana Valley.

Northern Kazakhstan can expect intense surpluses in Akmola Region and in northern Kostanay. South of Lake Balkhash, moderate deficits are forecast though conditions will be mixed in the Alataw Mountains nearby and moderate surpluses are forecast near Kapchagay Reservoir on the Ile River. In Kyrgyzstan, surpluses are forecast in the east and intense deficits in the south. Tajikistan will see some extreme pockets of deficit in the east and moderate pockets in the west.

West of the Urals in Russia, moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the Lower Vyatka River Watershed in Trans-Volga, exceptional surpluses in the Middle Volga region, and moderate to extreme surpluses in the Volga Upland.

East of the Urals, deficits are forecast in the Tura River region reaching to Tyumen, and in the north spanning the Gulf of Ob. Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in much of the Western Siberian Plain with transitions at its eastern edge leading to widespread, intense deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Plateau’s northeast between the Olenek and Lena Rivers. In Irkutsk Oblast north of Lake Baikal, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in a vast area from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering China, while intense deficits are forecast west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates that surpluses will increase in European Russia. Deficits will persist in Trans-Volga, though transitional are also forecast, and widespread deficits will continue from the southern Urals past Tyumen, pushing farther east. Exceptional deficits will persist on the Gulf of Ob, and widespread surpluses in the Western Siberian Plain. In the vast Central Siberian Plateau, exceptional deficits will increase and also in the Lower Lena River region and along the Laptev Sea. Deficits in Irkutsk Oblast will shrink. Widespread surpluses will persist from Lake Baikal through Russian regions bordering China and intense deficits will persist west of the Sea of Otkhosk.

In Central Asia, mixed conditions are expected near Kazakhstan’s north-central border though deficits will dominate. Moderate deficits will linger in Mangystau while deficits in central Kazakhstan shrink and downgrade considerably. Surpluses will increase north of Lake Balkhash and shrink southeast. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Tarbagatai Mountains in the east. In Kyrgyzstan, surpluses will persist in the east. Surpluses are also forecast spanning the north-central Uzbek border and in southwestern Turkmenistan. Deficits are expected around Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

From May through July, surpluses in European Russia will shrink considerably. The Central Siberian Plateau will transition out of widespread, intense deficit while intense surpluses emerge in its eastern reaches. Deficits will moderate on the Gulf of Ob, transition to surplus in Trans-Volga, and shrink and moderate from the southern Urals past Tyumen. Widespread, intense deficits are expected to emerge in Irkutsk Oblast, reaching well north and west. Surpluses will shrink from Baikal through regions bordering Mongolia and China. Deficits will emerge in Turkmenistan and increase in western Kazakhstan. Surpluses will re-emerge in Akmola and Kostanay as deficits recede and surpluses will shrink in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – August through October – indicates deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan. Deficits in Russia will downgrade. Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In mid-February, the water level in Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Reservoir on the Naryn River was at just 44 percent of capacity, threatening the country’s water- and power-sharing agreement with upstream neighbor, Kazakhstan. While continuing diplomatic discussions with Kyrgyzstan, Kazakh officials are pursuing other avenues to supply southern agricultural producers with irrigation water in the spring and summer, including the introduction of water-saving technologies.

Last year’s drought in Kazakhstan caused the grain harvest to plummet by 18 percent below 2020.

Sand storms blowing from the dry Aral Sea bed in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan dump between 15 and 75 million tons of sand, dust, and salt on Central Asia annually. Economic losses from the storms is estimated at $44 million.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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