Africa: Water deficits in the Horn will shrink

25 May 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2023 indicates widespread, intense water deficits across much of North Africa. Intense surpluses are expected in pockets of coastal Libya including Benghazi, and mixed conditions in Egypt. In West Africa, moderate deficits are forecast for Guinea and Sierra Leone.

Surpluses are forecast in a broad belt just south of the Sahel from central Mali into Eritrea and the Tigray and Afar regions of northern Ethiopia. Regions with exceptional surplus include Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali; central Nigeria surrounding the capital, Abuja; and near the city of Kano in northern Nigeria. Surpluses will be widespread in South Sudan. Transitions (pink/purple) are expected in the Ethiopian Highlands.

In the Horn of Africa, deficits are forecast in Somaliland, south of the Genale River in southern Ethiopia, and in pockets of southern Somalia and Kenya. Transitional conditions along with exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley.

Along the Gulf of Guinea, deficits will be intense from southeastern Nigeria through Cameroon, becoming exceptional in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, but moderating as they reach inland into northern Republic of the Congo. In the heart of the continent, severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the central Congo Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), moderating in the north. Intense surpluses are forecast at the western edge of the basin near Kinshasa and Brazzaville, and moderate surpluses in southeastern DRC and a pocket west of Rwanda. Burundi will see moderate deficits. Surpluses are forecast in northern Uganda, eastern Rwanda, and throughout much of Tanzania where anomalies will be intense.

Surpluses of generally lesser intensity are forecast in Zambia, Malawi, and central Mozambique. Extreme deficits are predicted north of Harare in Zimbabwe, and moderate deficits in northern Angola.

In southern Africa, surpluses are forecast from south-central Botswana into South Africa, and widespread surpluses are expected in Eastern Cape, southern KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, and Lesotho.

In Madagascar, surpluses are forecast in the far north, a pocket around Fianarantsoa, and in the southeast. Deficits are expected in the lower Mania River Watershed along the central west coast.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July indicates widespread deficits across North Africa, moderate overall but intense in western Algeria, northern Niger, and southeastern Libya into Sudan. Mixed conditions are forecast in Egypt and pockets of surplus in coastal Libya and Algeria. Scattered surpluses are forecast in the Sahel and to the south, including northern Senegal, northern and coastal Nigeria, southeastern Sudan into South Sudan, and Eritrea into Ethiopia. Anomalies will be intense surrounding Kano, Nigeria. Deficits will shrink or downgrade from Cameroon through Gabon and central and northern DRC, but severe to extreme pockets are forecast. Uganda and Kenya can expect deficits. Surpluses are forecast for Tanzania, Zambia, southeastern DRC and Kinshasa/Brazzaville, and Malawi. Surpluses will increase in Angola around Huambo. Surpluses are also expected in Mozambique, south-central Botswana, many regions in eastern and northern South Africa, and in Lesotho.

From August through October, exceptional deficits will emerge in central Morocco and western Algeria while deficits in Africa’s northeast shrink and downgrade. Surpluses, primarily moderate, will increase in a band just south of the Sahel, notably in southern Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. Kenya will transition to surplus in the west as deficits retreat, and surpluses will emerge in Uganda, Rwanda, and a pocket in northern DRC. Deficits will shrink in DRC, intensify in northern Gabon, and increase in northwestern Angola. Surpluses will persist in Tanzania but shrink or downgrade elsewhere in the south.

In the final quarter – November through January – deficits are forecast in Mauritania, Senegal, and southern Libya, and surpluses from far eastern Nigeria into central Ethiopia and northern Eritrea. Surpluses are also forecast in Uganda, Rwanda, and eastern South Africa.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After disastrous April flooding in South Africa that left over 400 dead, KwaZulu-Natal Province again experienced heavy rainfall and landslides in late May. Around 240 mm (9.4 inches) fell in just 24 hours, damaging homes, roads, and a water treatment plant in the municipality that includes Durban. In addition to loss of life, last month’s flooding stalled manufacturing activity and halted production at an auto factory.

In late April, health officials in South Sudan confirmed a cholera outbreak in the nation. The risk of cholera is elevated during the rainy season, May through October, and South Sudan has experienced widespread flooding in the last few years.

Morocco’s reservoirs are at just a third of capacity as drought continues to suppress agricultural production. The nation has only a four-month supply of grains with little hope of making up any shortfall through imports from Ukraine which remains under attack from Russia. Russian forces are reportedly confiscating Ukraine’s grain stock, a move that could spark food insecurity in African nations.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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