Middle East: Intense water deficits forecast in Central Iran

26 May 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending January 2023 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Saudi Arabia and the small Persian Gulf nations, much of Iraq, central and northeastern Iran, and several regions in Turkey.

On the Arabian Peninsula, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast throughout much of Saudi Arabia though mixed conditions are expected in the provinces on the central shore of the Red Sea. In Yemen, exceptional surpluses are forecast northeast of Sanaa, and deficits and transitional conditions (pink/purple) on the central Saudi border. Exceptional deficits are expected in Qatar and United Arab Emirates.

In Iraq, deficits of varying intensity are forecast west of the Tigris and also in Kuwait. Deficits will be exceptional on the Gharraf Canal in southern Iraq, and pockets of moderate surplus are forecast north of Kirkuk. Iran can expect exceptional deficits in the central provinces and in Bushehr Province on the Persian Gulf. Surpluses are expected from Tehran to the Caspian Sea Coast, in a pocket of the south near the Strait of Hormuz, and in the central Zagros Mountains.

Mixed conditions are forecast in the Levant including surpluses in central Israel, Cyprus, and central Syria with deficits elsewhere. In Turkey, deficits are forecast in the west, surpluses from Konya past Lake Tuz, and exceptional deficits in a large area west of the Keban Dam and also southwest of Lake Van.

Mixed conditions are forecast in Georgia, and moderate deficits in Azerbaijan.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July indicates widespread deficits in the region, especially intense in Saudi Arabia and Iran. Anomalies will be exceptional in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, though transitions are also forecast. A pocket of moderate surplus is forecast on Saudi Arabia’s central Red Sea Coast. Mild deficits and transitional conditions are expected in Yemen and Oman, but intense surpluses will persist north of Sanaa. In Iraq, generally moderate deficits are expected west of the Euphrates, exceptional deficits along the Gharraf Canal in the south, and some pockets of surplus near Kirkuk leading into Iran. In Iran, deficits are expected along the Persian Gulf, and from the Kuh Rud Mountains through the center of the nation into the northeast. Deficits will be exceptional in Fars, Kerman, and Isfahan Provinces. Surpluses are forecast along the central Caspian Coast and through the central Zagros Mountains. In the Levant, deficits and transitional conditions are expected with some surpluses in Gaza, central Israel, and Cyprus. Deficits are forecast in western Turkey, and surpluses from Konya past Lake Tuz and a pocket in the Pontic Mountains on the Black Sea Coast. Intense deficits are forecast in Anatolia from the Upper Cehan River region to the Keban Dam on the Firat (Euphrates), and moderate deficits in southeastern Turkey. Surpluses are forecast west of Tbilisi, Georgia, and deficits west of Baku, Azerbaijan.

From August through October, deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, but intense anomalies will persist in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and will emerge from Baghdad through Kuwait. Surpluses are forecast in pockets of northeastern Iraq; near Bandar-e-Abbas, Iran; north of Sanaa, Yemen; central Israel; Cyprus; the Kızılırmak River Watershed in Anatolia; and on the Kura River in central Georgia.

In the final quarter – November through January – deficits will shrink, returning many areas to normal water conditions. Deficits are expected in Central Anatolia, Georgia, Azerbaijan into Iran, Lebanon, and pockets in Riyadh and Medina Provinces in Saudi Arabia. Surpluses will persist north of Sanaa and re-emerge on the central Saudi-Yemen border.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Multi-year drought and precipitation decline are threatening Iraq’s production of amber rice, a key ingredient in many traditional dishes. Cultivation of the long-grained rice variety requires that paddies remain submerged from mid-May until October, a practice that has become unsustainable as irrigation canals run dry. Ordinarily, the land allotted for rice cultivation is 35 times greater than that approved for this year.

Iraq has also reduced the area under wheat cultivation this year by 50 percent due to drought. Russia’s war against Ukraine has created additional burdens for Iraqi farmers by raising the cost of fertilizer, fuel, and seeds.

Saudi Arabia has turned to cloud-seeding to increase rainfall in Riyadh, al-Qassim, and Hail. Elsewhere in the nation, torrential rainfall over several days in late April produced flooding in several regions, notably, Arar, the capital of Northern Borders Province near Iraq. The flooding turned many roadways into rivers, trapping hundreds of cars. Flood conditions also struck Taef, a city in Mecca. One death was reported.

According to figures from Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, the nation’s water resources have diminished by 15 percent over the last 20 years, attributed primarily to temperature increases.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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