Central Asia & Russia: Water surplus forecast in N Sakha & Transbaikal

26 May 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through January 2023 indicates exceptional water deficits in western Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region and in the Middle Reaches of the Syr Darya River in the south. In both regions, deficits will downgrade as they reach north. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in far northern Kazakhstan, and moderate deficits in the nation’s northernmost tip.

South of Lake Balkhash, moderate deficits are forecast in the Lower Ile River region though surpluses are forecast in Alataw Mountains nearby and severe surpluses are forecast near Kapchagay Reservoir on the Ile, moderating near the Chinese border. Deficits are expected throughout Turkmenistan and will be intense in the east. Uzbekistan will see deficits in most regions though surpluses are expected around Aydar Lake in the southeast. In Tajikistan, deficits and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast. Mixed conditions are expected in Kyrgyzstan including surpluses in the east near Lake Issyk Kul.

West of the Urals in Russia, surpluses are forecast in the Vychegda Lowland and coastal north, the Middle Volga River Region, Trans-Volga, and Volga Uplands. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Vychegda Lowland, Middle Volga, and southeast of Saratov. East of the Urals, moderate deficits are forecast in the Tura River region and intense deficits spanning the Gulf of Ob in the north. Widespread surpluses are forecast in much of the Western Siberian Plain with transitions at its eastern edge leading to widespread deficits of varying intensity in the Central Siberian Plateau. In Irkutsk Oblast north of Lake Baikal deficits are forecast, but exceptional surpluses are expected in Transbaikal’s Zabaykalsky Krai. Surpluses will also be exceptional in the Tyung River Watershed of northern Sakha Republic. Deficits are forecast in the Lena River Delta and west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July indicates surpluses in many regions west of the Urals in Russia. Deficits in the southern Urals and Tura River region will nearly disappear. In Russia’s Asian extent, surpluses are forecast in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Ob River Watershed but intense deficits will persist spanning the Gulf of Ob, downgrading somewhat, and deficits will emerge in a pocket near Surgut. Transitional conditions are expected in the Lower Yenisei River region and intense deficits in its eastern tributaries. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in the Tyung River area of northern Sakha Republic. Surpluses in Transbaikal will shrink but remain exceptional in central Zabaykalsky Krai. Intense deficits will persist near the Sea of Okhotsk and will emerge in the Lena Delta. Moderate deficits will emerge in the western Stanovoy Range in southern Sakha.

In Central Asia, deficits in Mangystau, Kazakhstan, will moderate. Generally moderate deficits are forecast for Kazakhstan’s northern tip and a pocket in the far south, much of Turkmenistan, south of the Zarafshon River in Uzbekistan, and eastern Tajikistan. Surpluses are forecast in Akmola, Kostanay, and Almaty Regions in Kazakhstan; around Aydar Lake in Uzbekistan; from central Tajikistan into Kyrgyzstan; and across Kyrgyzstan’s northern breadth.

From August through October, anomalies in Russia will shrink overall, persisting in the same distribution pattern as in the prior forecast. Moderate deficits will retreat from far northern Kazakhstan but will persist in Mangystau and the far south and emerge in the northwest and a pocket north of the Syr Darya River. Deficits and transitional conditions are expected in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Surpluses will linger in Kyrgyzstan and mixed conditions are forecast in Tajikistan.

The forecast for the final months – November through January – indicates that deficits will increase in the Central Siberian Plateau and emerge in the Ural, Irtysh, and Ishim River Watersheds. Deficits will shrink in west Kazakhstan and emerge in the north and far east.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In late April, nearly a month’s worth of rain fell in just a few hours in eastern Uzbekistan triggering floods and mudslides. The event claimed four lives in the Samarkand and Jizzakh regions and damaged crops, homes, schools, and roads.

Several regions of southern Kazakhstan also experienced flooding after intense precipitation. The streets of Almaty, a southern city of over 1.5 million people, were inundated. In Turkestan Region, also in the south, flooding swept through five villages killing 400 cattle. In mid-May, a landslide in Tekeli, Almaty Region buried several homes and damaged an apartment building and roads.

Excessive spring rainfall has farmers in southern Kyrgyzstan, where much of the nation’s crops are grown, very worried. Fields are waterlogged and seedlings have washed away or been buried under mudslides. Drought destroyed the domestic wheat crop last year and, like many nations, Kyrgyzstan is dependent on imports for the majority of its food. That process has been complicated by Russia’s war in Ukraine which triggered international sanctions and Russian export bans.

Precipitation deficits and strong winds fueled rare May wildfires in Siberia, killing five people in the Krasnoyarsk region, three in Kemerovo, and two in Omsk. Hundreds of firefighters have been deployed to combat the blazes that have consumed at least 450 homes.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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