Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Mexico will downgrade

26 May 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending January 2023 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the Baja Peninsula and Mexico’s north-central and eastern states.

Anomalies will be severe to exceptional in much of Baja and exceptional in the Colorado River Delta. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in Coahuila and into Nuevo León, and moderate to severe deficits in Chihuahua.

From Tamaulipas on the Gulf of Mexico through the land-locked states of San Luis Potosi and Querétaro, deficits will be severe overall, moderating to the south through Veracruz and Puebla.

In Central America, moderate to severe surpluses are expected in pockets from southern Nicaragua through Panama. Surpluses are also forecast in Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July indicates moderate deficits in Baja, from southeastern Chihuahua into Coahuila, and a pocket in the southwest corner of Tamaulipas. In south-central Mexico, moderate to severe deficits are expected from Puebla into nearby states. Moderate to severe surpluses are predicted through much of the Sierra Madre Occidental range in western Mexico. Surpluses are also forecast on the Pacific in western Jalisco and coastal Oaxaca and Chiapas.

In Central America, pockets of surplus are expected from Belize through Nicaragua, but surpluses will be more widespread in Costa Rica and Panama with severe to extreme anomalies in Panama. Surpluses are also forecast in Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas. Generally mild deficits are forecast for Hispaniola.

From August through October, moderate deficits will linger in Baja and Chihuahua. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the east from Nuevo León south into Tabasco, reaching into nearby land-locked states as well. Deficits will reach extreme intensity in the city of Veracruz. Surpluses in the west will nearly disappear. Moderate surpluses are forecast from southern Nicaragua through western Panama, and a few small pockets of moderate deficit around the Gulf of Honduras. Surpluses will retreat from Jamaica as some limited areas of deficit emerge. Near-normal conditions are expected in Hispaniola, while surpluses persist in parts of Cuba but shrink in the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – November through January – indicates that deficits will increase and intensify at the intersection of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango, Mexico. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the east from southern Tamaulipas through Veracruz State and its smaller, inland neighbors, around the Gulf to Tabasco. A few pockets of moderate surplus will linger in southern Central America, and surpluses are forecast in central Cuba and the central Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought has left the dams in Mexico’s northern state of Coahuila at a mere 11 percent of capacity, as reported in mid-May. La Amistad and Don Martín dams are especially low, with levels at the worst in 15 years of record-keeping. Over 100 cattle have died of dehydration in the Hipólito Canyon alone. Without water or fodder animal weights have dropped, sending prices for surviving stock plummeting to 20 percent of normal.

Early May brought intense precipitation to Costa Rica that caused 200 incidents of flooding and landslides, affecting many homes and roads. Later in the month, torrential rainfall triggered a landslide that damaged a road, isolating the residents of Buenos Aires de Puntarenas.

Cars bobbed down the streets of Tegucigalpa, the capital of Honduras, after a storm on 19 May turned city roads into rivers. The Quebrada Salada River overflowed and floodwaters created a giant sinkhole in the Prados Universitarios neighborhood.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags