Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook June 2022

3 June 2022

OVERVIEW
Our June 2022 Outlook includes a forecast of considerably wetter than normal conditions through the Andes from Colombia into central Peru, and in the Brazilian Amazon region. Temperatures will be notably hotter than the norm in a vast extent reaching through central Brazil.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Precipitation surpluses will be exceptional in South America through the Andes in Colombia and Ecuador and the eastern Andes (Cordillera Oriental) halfway through Peru, where some deficits will trace paths on either side. Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Brazilian Amazon, reaching exceptional intensity east of Manaus between the mouth of the Madeira River and the central reaches of the Nhamundá River.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Surpluses of generally lesser intensity are forecast in the Guiana Highlands of Venezuela; an arc from eastern Colombia into Loreto, Peru; and in Brazil’s northeastern states.

Moderate precipitation deficits will be widespread in Brazil’s Central West and Southeast regions, throughout much of Uruguay, and in the Argentine Pampas reaching north into the Chaco Austral and Entre Rios Province.

In Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, precipitation is expected to be relatively normal overall. Surpluses are forecast between the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico, in northern Guatemala, and along Nicaragua’s Pacific Coast. Western Cuba and the Bahamas will also be somewhat wetter than normal while pockets of moderate deficit are forecast for southeastern Cuba, Haiti, and eastern Nicaragua. Moderate deficits are also forecast in central San Luis Potosí State in central Mexico; moderate surpluses are expected in central Chihuahua in the north.

Moderate precipitation deficits are forecast in the United States throughout most of Nevada and reaching west to the California Cascades and Sierra Nevadas. Moderate surpluses are forecast in New Mexico surrounding White Sands National Park, in the Llano Estacado from eastern New Mexico into Texas, and from Amarillo to Oklahoma City. Southern Florida can also expect surpluses, moderate overall but severe from Fort Myers to Naples. In interior Alaska, the region between the Kuskokwim and Yukon Rivers will be moderately drier than normal.

Much of Canada can expect relatively normal precipitation. Mild to moderate surpluses are forecast in the Skeena River Watershed of western British Columbia. Moderate deficits are forecast in the central Yukon and at the opposite side of the country in the Churchill Falls area of Newfoundland and Labrador.

The precipitation outlook for Europe indicates moderate deficits throughout much of Spain, becoming severe to extreme in the center of the nation between Madrid and Cordoba, and severe northeast of Barcelona. In France, western Provence will be moderately drier than normal as will a pocket around Paris. Elsewhere in Europe, moderately dry pockets are expected near Milan and Bologna, Italy; southwest of Slovenia’s capital, Ljubljana; and in Ukraine’s southwest corner.

Along Africa’s northwestern coast, pockets of moderate precipitation deficit are forecast from Morocco through Tunisia. Moderate deficits are also forecast in central Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Surpluses are expected from central Zambia well into central Tanzania with extreme to exceptional surpluses in central Tanzania. Areas with a forecast of generally moderate surplus include central Ghana; west-central Nigeria; from southeastern Chad into Central African Republic; Darfur, Sudan; and pockets of coastal Kenya. Severe surpluses are expected in southern Eritrea.

In the Middle East, precipitation deficits are expected across northern Turkey, moderate in the west but severe to extreme in the east where anomalies will reach into Armenia and coastal Georgia. Southwestern Turkey will be somewhat wetter than normal. Iran will see moderate deficits throughout the northwest reaching into Azerbaijan, and in pockets of the northeast. A few pockets of surplus are expected in Iraq northeast of Kirkuk, northwest of Baghdad, and north of the Gharraf Canal. Some moderate deficits are forecast in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and a pocket of severe to extreme deficit in northeastern Oman.

Central Asia can expect moderate deficits in Turkmenistan and pockets of Uzbekistan and southern Kazakhstan. Surpluses are forecast in Tajikistan and parts of the Alataw Mountains in southeastern Kazakhstan. Relatively normal precipitation is expected in Russia with some moderate surpluses in the central Lena River Watershed and moderate deficits in the Taymyr Peninsula in the Arctic, and in Sakhalin Island, Khabarovsk Krai, and southern Kamchatka in the east.

In South Asia, pockets of surplus are forecast in Afghanistan, particularly in the north. Anomalies will be severe in Kabul. Pockets of moderate deficit are expected in northern and southeastern Pakistan. Conditions will be moderately drier than normal in India from northern Gujarat through central and eastern Rajasthan, Haryana, and Delhi, but deficits in pockets of the Far North will be more intense. Some moderate deficits are also expected in Uttar Pradesh along the Ghaghara River, in Assam in the Far Northeast, and in central Bhutan. Deficits are forecast along much of India’s west coast, severe in Goa and extreme in southern Kerala. The cross-border region of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will be moderately wetter than normal, as will the cross-border region of Dhaka and Sylhet Divisions in Bangladesh.

Rakhine and Mandalay States in Myanmar will see moderate surpluses. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, moderate deficits are forecast in central Thailand but deficit anomalies will be more intense in the peninsular regions of Thailand and Myanmar, in southern Laos, central and southern Vietnam, and eastern Cambodia. In the Pacific region, deficits of varying intensity are expected in the central and southern Philippines, northeastern Borneo, northern and eastern Sulawesi, the Maluku Islands, along the northern coast of New Guinea, and New Britain and the Solomon Islands. Surpluses are forecast in a pocket of southern Sumatra, throughout Java and the Lesser Sunda Islands, and southern New Guinea, and will include intense surpluses.

In East Asia, precipitation will be relatively normal in Japan and Korea. Moderate surpluses are forecast in large pockets of Northeast China and the Liaodong Peninsula, the Pearl River Watershed in the south, and northern Fujian. Surpluses will reach severe intensity from northern Guangxi into Guizhou. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in southern Sichuan. In western China, intense deficits are forecast in western Tibet (Xizang), moderate surpluses in southern Xinjiang Uygur, and deficits from northeastern Xinjiang through Gansu into the western corner of Inner Mongolia and into southern Mongolia.

Australia’s northern reaches will be much wetter than normal with exceptional surpluses in the Kimberley Region, severe surpluses in Top End, Northern Territory, and surpluses of varying intensity in the Cape York Peninsula. Moderate surpluses are expected in a vast area encompassing the northern Outback and reaching through Queensland’s Central West to the Mackenzie River region in the east. Deficits will be widespread in Western Australia from Shark’s Bay in the Gascoyne Region through the Darling Range in the state’s southwestern tip. Deficits will be moderate overall but severe in pockets including Perth and the Blackwood River region. In New Zealand, Taranaki region in North Island will be moderately wetter than normal.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
In South America, a vast extent in central and southeastern Brazil will be exceptionally hotter than normal with anomalies of lesser intensity in much of the remainder of the nation. Severe warm anomalies are forecast for French Guiana and generally moderate warm anomalies in Suriname, Guyana, southern and southwestern Venezuela, and through much of Colombia’s southern half into eastern Ecuador and Loreto, Peru. Central Peru, too, can expect to be moderately warmer than normal.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Cooler than normal temperatures will trace a path through the Cordillera Occidental Range along the Pacific Coast from southwestern Colombia through Ecuador into Peru, and parts of Peru’s coastal south where anomalies will be severe in the Ocoña River Watershed in Arequipa Region. Somewhat cooler than normal temperatures are forecast in parts of the Gran Chaco region from Paraguay into Argentina.

Central America and the Caribbean can expect moderately warmer than normal temperatures in Guatemala, Belize, and Jamaica but heat anomalies will be severe in the Bahamas. Nicaragua’s southwestern corner, including Managua, will be somewhat cooler than normal. In southern Mexico as well, temperatures will be moderately cooler in Oaxaca, Guerrero, and western Campeche. Temperatures in Mexico’s central north will be moderately warmer than normal as will Nayarit State on the west coast. More intense heat anomalies are forecast in the northwestern part of the nation, severe in Baja and extreme in Sonora.

Those intense heat anomalies will reach into the southwestern United States. In Arizona, anomalies will be severe to extreme, reaching exceptional intensity in Tucson. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected in western New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, and California along with a few extreme pockets. Temperatures along the U.S. East Coast will be warmer than normal from Maine through the Carolinas. Anomalies will be severe to extreme in many coastal areas, moderating as they reach inland. Spanning the shared northern border of North Dakota and Montana, moderately cooler than normal temperatures are expected along the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone Rivers. Hawaii and Alaska will be warmer than normal with widespread moderate to severe anomalies.

The northern reaches of the Canadian provinces will see warmer than normal temperatures. Anomalies will be moderate to severe overall but will reach extreme intensity spanning the shared border of Alberta and British Columbia. These severe to extreme anomalies will reach well into Northwest Territories, moderating as they expand north. The Yukon will be moderately warmer than normal with severe anomalies where its namesake river crosses into Alaska. Temperatures in Nunavut are forecast to be moderately to extremely hotter than normal with exceptional anomalies approaching Dubawnt Lake in the Kivalliq Region.

Much of Europe will be warmer than normal with widespread anomalies of varying intensity in Western, Mediterranean, and Central Europe. Severe heat anomalies are forecast from Spain through France and through the Swiss and Italian Alps. Anomalies will be even more intense on the Mediterranean coast of Spain and France, and in coastal Aquitaine along the Bay of Biscay. Anomalies will be exceptional in Corsica, Sardinia, and Sicily, and severe to exceptional in southern Italy, Tuscany, the Balkans, Greece, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, and Austria. Moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in Portugal, Ireland, pockets of the U.K. Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and pockets in Northern Europe. Arctic regions of European Russia will be warmer than normal.

Intensely hotter than normal temperatures are expected in northwest Africa, and moderate to severe heat anomalies in pockets around the Gulf of Guinea through western Republic of the Congo. Niger’s northern bulk will also see moderate to severe warm anomalies as will eastern and southern Egypt. Heat anomalies in northern Sudan will be exceptional but much cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for the Sudd, a vast swamp region in South Sudan. In DRC, the southern and eastern reaches of the Congo Basin will be much cooler than normal while warmer than normal temperatures are expected in the Lokoro River region east of Lake Mai-Ndombe. Areas with a forecast of generally moderate cool anomalies include Kenya’s northern corners, west-central Tanzania, and northeastern Mozambique. Pockets of warm anomalies are forecast in the Horn of Africa, southern Kenya, northeastern and southwestern Madagascar, and Western Cape, Northern Cape, and Limpopo, South Africa. Anomalies will be intense along the coast near Cape Town.

Many areas in the Middle East will be warmer than normal. Exceptionally hotter temperatures are forecast in Iraq west of the Euphrates River and surrounding the Gharraf Canal. Most of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will be hotter than normal while Yemen can expect moderate warm anomalies, and severe cool anomalies are forecast in Oman’s north. Near the Mediterranean, warm anomalies will be moderate but will intensify in Jordan and Syria. Moderate to severe anomalies are forecast for western Turkey, severe in Ankara; intensely hotter temperatures are expected in the east, leading into Georgia and Armenia; and cool anomalies will trace Turkey’s Black Sea Coast. In Iran, western regions will be much hotter than normal. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in Iran’s north and near the Persian Gulf, and cool anomalies in the southeast.

Central Asia will generally be moderately warmer than normal in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, eastern Tajikistan, and Mangystau, Kyzylorda, and western Almaty regions in Kazakhstan. From northern Kyrgyzstan into Kazakhstan, temperatures will be cooler than normal. In Arctic Asian Russia, widespread moderate to severe warm anomalies will join those in European Russia, continuing through northern Siberia. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast from Trans-Baikal to the Seas of Okhotsk and Japan and the Kamchatka Peninsula, with a large area of extremely anomalous heat in Khabarovsk Krai west of Sakhalin Island.

In South Asia, southern Afghanistan and southern Pakistan will be cooler than normal. Warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in Pakistan’s far northeast including Islamabad, reaching into far northern India. Relatively normal temperatures are forecast for the Ganges Plain and northwestern India but the remainder of the nation can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies, becoming extreme in southern Tamil Nadu. Sri Lanka and southern Bangladesh will be moderately warmer than normal but more intense heat anomalies are predicted across northern Nepal.

While relatively normal temperatures are forecast for most of Myanmar, severe heat anomalies are predicted for the Irrawaddy Delta, and Peninsular Myanmar into nearby border areas of Thailand. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, widespread moderate warm anomalies with some severe pockets are forecast for much of Vietnam, Laos’ southern half, and western and southern Cambodia. The Malay Peninsular will be moderately to severely warmer than normal and anomalies could reach extreme intensity in Vietnam’s extreme southern point. Widespread heat anomalies of varying intensity are predicted throughout much of the Pacific region with many areas of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures including the central Philippines, the Lesser Sunda Islands, and New Guinea.

In East Asia, intensely hotter than normal conditions are forecast in the Tibetan Plateau in China and warm anomalies of varying intensity in the Middle and Upper Yellow River (Huang He) Basin, exceptional in Ningxia Autonomous Region in north-central China. Heat anomalies will vary as well in the vast Yangtze Basin, moderate in the lower region, exceptional in the Upper Han River region. Moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast in Southeast China from Guangdong and Jiangxi into neighboring regions though anomalies may be more intense near Hong Kong. Northern Taiwan will be moderately warmer than normal but severe anomalies are forecast for its southern half. China’s Far Northeast will be moderately warmer near the Russian border. Xinjiang Uygur in the west can expect moderate to severe heat anomalies, and anomalies will be severe to extreme in western Inner Mongolia, downgrading somewhat though remaining widespread in central Mongolia. On the Korean Peninsula, moderate warm anomalies are forecast for southern North Korea and through South Korea, though anomalies are expected to become intense in western South Korea. In Japan, moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in the south, severe in Hiroshima, Fukuoka, and Nagasaki. Some coastal regions of Hokkaido can also expect warm anomalies.

Australia’s northern extremes will be warmer than normal with moderate heat anomalies in the Kimberley region and moderate to exceptional anomalies in Top End, Northern Territory and Far North, Queensland. In eastern Australia, moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for the Gold Coast and Brisbane area. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail in much of the southern half of the Outback in Western Australia, South Australia, and Central West Queensland. Moderate cool anomalies are forecast in New South Wales at the confluence of the Barwon and Macquarie Rivers and in Western Australia’s Pilbara region. New Zealand will be hotter than normal with severe anomalies in North Island and severe to extreme anomalies in South Island. New Caledonia is expected to be exceptionally hotter than normal.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released June 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for June 2022 through February 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued May 25 through May 31, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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