ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List June 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST JUNE 2022

15 June 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in March 2022 and running through February 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List June 15, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through August indicates water deficits of varying intensity in the West, Southwest, Rockies, parts of the Pacific Northwest, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia. Areas with a forecast of surplus include the Dakotas and Minnesota, and western Washington and Oregon.

Canada: The forecast through August indicates many areas of intense water deficit in Quebec, Ontario, and central and northern regions of the Prairie Provinces and British Columbia. Areas of surplus include southern Manitoba, northwestern Saskatchewan, and southeastern British Columbia.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through August indicates moderate to severe water deficits in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and Puebla. Areas with a forecast of surplus include the Yucatan and pockets throughout Central America.

South America: The forecast through August indicates widespread, exceptional water deficits across central Brazil from Mato Grosso into Minas Gerais and from Tocantins into São Paulo State. Surpluses will be widespread in Amazonas, Brazil, and in Colombia.

Europe: The forecast through August indicates that water deficits will increase, becoming widespread. Deficits will be especially pervasive in France. Other areas of intense deficit include the Rhone, Drava, and Rhine Rivers; western Spain; and Estonia.

Africa: The forecast through August indicates widespread water deficits across North Africa including intense deficits. Surpluses will be widespread in many East African nations reaching through much of eastern South Africa.

Middle East: The forecast through August indicates water deficits in many regions, moderate to severe overall but more intense in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia; Ankara, Turkey; and Baghdad and the lower Gharraf Canal in Iraq. Surpluses are forecast in Turkey from Konya past Lake Tuz.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through August indicates that water deficits will moderate in Mangystau, Kazakhstan; increase in Turkmenistan; and emerge in Irkutsk Oblast, Russia, and in Surgut on the Ob River. Surpluses will persist in the Western Siberian Plain.

South Asia: The forecast through August indicates widespread water surpluses in Andhra Pradesh, southeastern Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Sri Lanka, and from eastern Bangladesh into Indian regions to the east. Anomalies will be exceptional in Karnataka and from Bangladesh into India.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through August indicates that, while water surpluses will shrink and downgrade, many areas will persist, including exceptional surpluses in central Vietnam and Java. Areas of deficit include Medan, Sumatra, and New Guinea’s north coast.

East Asia: The forecast through August indicates widespread water surpluses from the Yangtze River south, particularly intense in the Pearl River Watershed where anomalies will be exceptional throughout much of Guangxi. Deficits are forecast in South Korea and Japan.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through August indicates that water surpluses will downgrade but remain widespread in eastern Australia from the Wide Bay-Burnett region of Queensland through East Gippsland, Victoria. Deficits will emerge in Top End, Northern Territory and shrink in New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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