United States: Water deficits will persist in the West & Rockies

17 June 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending February 2023 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the U.S. West, Rockies, Southwest, and Texas. Deficits are also expected in pockets on the East Coast from southern New Jersey through Florida.

In the West, exceptional anomalies will be widespread in California and Arizona including the San Joaquin Valley and Lower Colorado River Basin, but exceptional deficits are also predicted for southern Utah and Nevada, the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho, and south-central Oregon. A few pockets of surplus are expected in the Pacific Northwest. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast through the Rocky Mountain States.

The forecast for Texas indicates widespread deficits in much of the state outside of the panhandle. Anomalies will be primarily severe to extreme from the Hill Country into the South Texas Plains and reaching the Gulf Coast at Corpus Christi. Moderate deficits are expected from the Dallas-Fort Worth area to Houston.

Widespread severe to extreme surpluses are forecast in the Red River Watershed of North Dakota and Minnesota reaching across the border into South Dakota. Surpluses will also be intense around International Falls, Minnesota. Moderate deficits are expected along the Missouri River and in northwestern Iowa and pockets of Nebraska. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Missouri’s southwestern quadrant reaching into its southern neighbors. A few pockets of moderate surplus are also forecast in Michigan, Ohio, Upstate New York, and central Penobscot County, Maine.

On the East Coast, deficits of varying intensity are forecast in southern New Jersey and Delaware, northern Virginia and the state’s western corner, eastern North Carolina and coastal pockets in South Carolina, eastern Georgia, northeastern Florida, and surrounding Lake Okeechobee. Deficits will be intense in Virginia.

Outside the contiguous U.S., Alaska can expect deficits in the northeast and central north, and near Anchorage in the south. Surpluses are expected near Juneau, Nome, Bethel, reaching from the Alaska Peninsula inland to the Kuskokwim River, and at the eastern end of the Alaska Range. Surpluses are forecast in Hawaii and moderate deficits in western Puerto Rico.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates widespread deficits of varying intensity in the West, parts of the Southwest, Rockies, and some areas in the Pacific Northwest. Deficits will be exceptional through the Rockies in Utah and the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho. Deficits ranging from severe to exceptional are expected to be widespread in northern California, central and southern Oregon, and western Montana. Surpluses reaching exceptional intensity are forecast for western Washington and well into northwestern Oregon. Surpluses are also expected in a pocket of northeastern Oregon spanning the border into Washington.

Widespread severe to extreme surpluses will persist in the Red and James River Watersheds and beyond in North and South Dakota and well into Minnesota. Severe deficits will trace the Missouri River, but surpluses are expected on the river in a pocket west of Lake Sakakawea. A sprinkling of moderate deficits is forecast in Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and parts of the Arkansas River in Kansas. Moderate surpluses will be widespread spanning the conjoined regions of Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, and surpluses are also forecast for coastal Mississippi. Some pockets of moderate deficit will linger in northeastern and Big Bend Country in Texas. On the East Coast, pockets of deficit are expected in the coastal Northeast, Virginia, the eastern regions of the Carolinas, and southern Georgia. Anomalies will be extreme in northern Virginia and severe in eastern North Carolina.

From September through November, deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, persisting in California, Oregon, the northern Rockies, Upper Colorado River, parts of the Arkansas River, and the Missouri River. Exceptional deficits will persist in the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho and the Upper Bear River region in Utah and will emerge in the central Mojave Desert in California. Deficits will be severe on the Missouri River through Montana. Widespread severe surpluses will persist in the Red and James River regions of North Dakota and Minnesota, moderating in South Dakota.

The forecast for the final months – December 2022 through February 2023 – indicates persistent severe surpluses from the Dakotas into Minnesota and increasing surpluses in a pocket on the Missouri River west of Lake Sakakawea. Pockets of moderate surplus will emerge in northeastern Oklahoma, the Upper Ohio River Watershed, Michigan, and the St. Lawrence River region. Deficits are forecast in the northern Rockies and a pocket in the eastern Carolinas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall melted late-season snowpack in Montana to create the most significant flooding in Yellowstone Park’s history. The mid-June deluge, attributed to an atmospheric river, washed out roads and bridges, ripped a house into the raging waters, and left some communities land-locked and without drinking water and power. A state-wide disaster was declared due to the unprecedented flooding and all entrances to Yellowstone National Park were closed, some indefinitely. Flooding shut down the main water plant that supplies water to the state’s largest city, Billings, and residents were asked to conserve water. Economic impacts have yet to be tallied, though the tourist industry has clearly suffered a setback as the famed park approaches its busiest season.

Severe storms in Michigan flooded a baby food plant in Sturgis, halting production after the plant had recently reopened to address the nation’s critical shortage of baby formula.

In mid-June, drought in New Mexico surpassed a previous record with over 50 percent of the state categorized as experiencing “exceptional drought.” Aided by dry conditions, several major wildfires have scarred New Mexico recently. The Hermit’s Creek/Calf Canyon Fire, largest in the state’s history, has destroyed nearly 350,000 acres since it began in April. The Black Fire in the Gila National Forest has affected 300,000 acres.

Drought conditions in the nation’s breadbasket, Kansas, threaten the state’s famed wheat crop and industry experts estimate that losses could reach $1 billion as harvest projections drop. Cattle producers have also been negatively affected as drought forced stock reductions and recent high heat and humidity have killed thousands of cattle.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags