East Asia: Water surplus to persist in SE & NE China

21 July 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through March 2023 indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in southern China throughout the Pearl River Basin (Zhujiang River) with exceptional anomalies in Guangxi and Guangdong. In Fujian on the southeast coast, surpluses will be moderate to exceptional. Anomalies of lesser intensity are forecast for pockets of Sichuan.

Northeast China, too, can expect surpluses in a vast area from Liaoning past the Chinese border. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional through western regions of Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia. In the Yellow River Watershed (Huang He River), surpluses are expected in the lower and upper regions.

Widespread, exceptional deficits will reach from western Inner Mongolia across a vast belt in Xinjiang Uygur through the city of Hami and the Taklimakan Desert with pockets of transitional conditions (pink/purple) as well. In Tibet (Xizang), intense surpluses will dominate many areas in the western half of the region and will include exceptional anomalies along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River.

Surpluses will be widespread in North Korea, extreme near Pyongyang. In South Korea, exceptional surpluses are expected in a band from Incheon on the Yellow Sea to the Lower Namhan River region, but moderate to severe deficits will be widespread across the nation’s southern half. Japan can also expect moderate to severe deficits in southern Honshu and pockets of deficit in Kyushu and Shikoku.

In Mongolia, severe deficits are forecast in the western Gobi Desert, moderating along a path leading northwest, then becoming exceptional in the lakes region of the far northwest. Surpluses are forecast from the Ider River region in the north to Lake Khovsgol, and in the central Hentiyn Mountains in the northeast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates widespread surpluses in Southeast China and the Pearl River Basin. Anomalies will be moderate overall but severe to exceptional in the Bei River Watershed of Guangdong, a northern tributary of the Pearl, and moderate to severe in eastern Guangxi and northern Fujian. Deficits are forecast in northeastern Sichuan. In the Yellow River Watershed, surpluses are forecast in the lower reaches and the Shandong Peninsula and in southwestern Shanxi. Widespread surpluses will persist in Northeast China, but the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink. In western China, moderate to severe deficits are expected in western Inner Mongolia and deficits of greater intensity in central Xinjiang. Intense surpluses will persist in central Tibet. Surpluses, generally moderate, are forecast for North Korea and from Incheon to the Lower Namhan River in South Korea. In Japan, severe to extreme deficits are forecast in southern Honshu and in Kyushu and Shikoku.

From October to December, surpluses will shrink but remain widespread in Northeast China, and primarily moderate surpluses will persist in the Lower Yellow River region and Shandong Peninsula. Surpluses in Southeast China will shrink considerably with moderate anomalies lingering in Guangdong and Fujian. Deficits will retreat from northwestern China but increase in Sichuan and emerge in Chongqing, Guizhou, and pockets of Hubei, Guangxi, and Yunnan. Surpluses will persist in Qinghai and downgrade slightly in Tibet. Conditions are expected to be relatively normal in Korea and Japan, with some moderate surpluses persisting south of Pyongyang and moderate deficits in southern Honshu.

The forecast for the final three months – January through March 2023 – indicates that severe deficits will increase in Chongqing and Guizhou. Deficits, moderate overall, are forecast for the Lower Yangtze River Watershed, western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang, southern South Korea, and southern Japan. Areas of surplus include Northeast China, the Lower Yellow River Watershed, Tibet, and pockets in northern Japan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Western Honshu, Japan, is experiencing water shortages as dams in the region report water levels less than half of normal. Water rationing has been introduced to address shortfalls caused by drought and exacerbated by the current heatwave. The excessive heat has strained power supplies, breaking records in the capital, Tokyo, and sending over 4,500 people to hospitals nation-wide with heatstroke, resulting in four deaths.

In China, high temperatures melted the roof of a new cultural museum in Chongqing, buckled roads, and prompted officials in southeastern cities to open former air raid shelters to provide respite. Zhejiang Province, a major manufacturing and export hub, has rationed power to energy-intensive industries. Pork, a staple in the Chinese diet, is expected to command higher prices as heat suppresses feed production.

While the heatwave is commanding attention, flooding continues in many other regions of China. Six people have died in Sichuan and another six in Gansu after torrential rain triggered flooding. In Northeast China, mid-July flooding in Heilongjiang Province claimed one life and eight people remain missing. In Liaoning Province’s capital, Shenyang, home to 7.6 million, residents were advised to avoid travel as many roads flooded, temporarily trapping a school bus.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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