South Asia: Water surplus will increase in Madhya Pradesh

South Asia: Water surplus will increase in Madhya Pradesh

21 July 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2023 indicates severe to exceptional water surpluses from Bangladesh’s northern half into much of India’s Far Northeast and Bhutan. Surpluses will also be intense along the Gandak River in central Nepal, but some moderate deficits will skirt the nation’s border west of the river.

Most of India can expect near-normal water conditions. However, moderate surpluses are forecast from the Banas River in southern Rajasthan past the Tapi River in northern Maharashtra. Surpluses are also expected in southern Karnataka and will reach extreme intensity in a small pocket. In the nation’s far north, surpluses of varying intensity are forecast while in its far south, exceptional deficits are expected in southern Tamil Nadu. In Sri Lanka, surpluses are forecast in the southwest.

Surpluses will be widespread and intense in central Balochistan Province in Pakistan, downgrading as they cross the border into Kandahar Province in Afghanistan and extend north through Uruzgan Province. Pakistan’s Northern Areas (Gilgit-Baltistan) will also see surpluses. Widespread deficits ranging from moderate to severe are predicted for southwestern Afghanistan, reaching north along its borders with Central Asian nations well into the Hindu Kush.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates widespread moderate surpluses in west-central India from western Madhya Pradesh reaching into Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. Moderate surpluses are also forecast in a belt of Telangana including Hyderabad, and surpluses of varying intensity in pockets of southern India. Moderate deficits are expected in Tamil Nadu’s southern tip, but surpluses will dominate Sri Lanka. On the Bay of Bengal, a pocket of deficit is forecast in central Odisha. In India’s far north, surpluses are expected in Jammu and Kashmir. Bangladesh can expect moderate surpluses in the northeast and extreme north, leading into nearby regions of India. Surpluses are forecast in Nepal on the Gandak River.

In Pakistan, surpluses will be widespread and intense in the west-central region reaching through the city of Quetta and well past Kandahar, Afghanistan. Deficits are forecast in pockets of Afghanistan in the far north, along the Central Asia borders, and to the south bordering Pakistan.

From October through December, deficits will retreat, and near-normal conditions will return to Bangladesh, Far Northeast India, Bhutan, and Nepal. Surpluses will persist with intensity from Pakistan into Afghanistan. Moderate surpluses will continue in west-central India and pockets of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, and surpluses of greater intensity in far northern India.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2023 – indicates persistent surpluses in India in a pattern much like that of the forecast through December. Surpluses will shrink in Pakistan and nearly disappear in nearby regions of Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in northern Afghanistan created flood conditions in Nangarhar, Nuristan, Ghani, and Parwan Province, killing at least 10 people and wounding 11 others. Floodwaters damaged several hundred homes in the early-July deluge, as well as several bridges and many roads.

In Pakistan, monsoon flooding has killed nearly 150 in the last month. Entire neighborhoods of Karachi are under water. In addition to Sindh Province where Karachi is located, flooding has also affected Balochistan, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provinces. A dam broke in Punjab, flooding streets, damaging homes, and ruining crops. In Balochistan, over a thousand people have been infected with cholera, a water-borne disease, and ten have died.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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