Canada: Water deficits will persist W of Ottawa

22 July 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through March 2023 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in the eastern half of the nation and in the northwest.

In the east, deficits will be exceptional in many regions including southern Newfoundland, the Miramichi River watershed in east-central New Brunswick, the Smallwood Reservoir region in Labrador, and the Manicouagan Reservoir and Lake Mistassini regions in Quebec. Surpluses are forecast in Quebec between the Saint Maurice River and Lac Saint Jean.

Exceptional deficits are expected in a broad column along Ontario’s eastern border and in Southern Ontario east of Georgian Bay. Deficits along Lake Erie’s north coast are expected to be severe to extreme. Deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario and will include exceptional anomalies in northern Kenora District though surpluses are forecast for southern Kenora.

Widespread intense deficits are forecast in a belt across central Manitoba and in the province’s northeast reaching Hudson Bay. Surpluses are forecast south of Lake Winnipeg and near the U.S. border. Elsewhere in the Prairie Provinces, deficits are forecast in a path across south-central Saskatchewan leading to Regina and a pocket in the center of the province, but widespread surpluses are forecast in the northwest leading west past Fort McMurray, Alberta. In Alberta, deficits are expected in the central south, the Middle Athabasca River region, and the northwest, and surpluses near Calgary and in the Rockies near Banff.

Surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River Watershed of southern British Columbia leading east into the Columbia Watershed, but exceptional deficits are expected in East Kootenay in the province’s southeast corner. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in the Upper Fraser Watershed and severe deficits in the Nechako River Watershed. In British Columbia’s central far north, exceptional deficits will lead from Williston Lake well into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates many areas of deficit in the east, frequently intense, including Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, from the Caniapiscau Reservoir in Quebec (QC) to the Smallwood Reservoir in Labrador, and the Ungava Peninsula, Côte-Nord, and Lake Mistassini regions in Quebec. Surpluses will persist in the Middle Saint Maurice River. In Ontario (ON), deficits will be intense along the eastern border and east of Georgian Bay and severe north of Lake Erie. Much of Northern Ontario will also see deficits though surpluses will persist around Trout Lake in Kenora. Surpluses are forecast in Manitoba (MB) south of Lake Winnipeg and along the U.S. border, but intense deficits will persist in a belt across the province and in the northeast.

Widespread, intense surpluses will persist from northwestern Saskatchewan (SK) into Alberta (AB). Deficits will linger in pockets of the south and in the province’s center, and moderate surpluses will trace the north and south branches of the Saskatchewan River into AB, becoming intense in the Alberta Rockies. Deficits will be widespread and intense from the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River through northwestern AB. In British Columbia (BC), surpluses are expected in the Thompson and Quesnel Watersheds, and intense deficits in the Upper Fraser and Nechako Watersheds and from Williston Lake into Yukon.

From October through December, anomalies will shrink and downgrade. However, large pockets of intense deficit will persist in QC, ON, MB, AB, and BC. Surpluses will remain widespread in northwestern SK, will shrink in southeastern BC, and increase around Fort St. John, BC. Near-normal conditions are forecast in southern regions of the Prairie Provinces with some pockets of surplus.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2023 – indicates a pattern of anomalies like the prior three-months though surpluses will increase somewhat in southern BC.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A thunderstorm dumped 114 mm (~4.5 inches) of rain on the town of Teulon, Manitoba, north of Winnipeg on 19 July, filling basements, overflowing swimming pools, and turning yards into pools. Teulon, located in the province’s Interlake region, saw more flooding than in the spring. Power outages lasted for several hours.

Farther north in the province, a wildfire sent 2,000 people from the Mathias Colomb Cree Nation out of their homes, scrambling to get away by train or plane, the only means of exit. As of 20 July, the fire covered 23,000 hectares. At least nine other fires are burning in northern Manitoba.

Earlier in the month, numerous fires were burning in the Yukon and Northwest Territories. Fueled by dry weather and record high temperatures, 136 fires raged, posing heat and air quality threats. So far this year, nearly 194,000 hectares have burned in the regions.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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