Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook August 2022

3 August 2022

OVERVIEW
The Outlook for August 2022 indicates that central Brazil and several regions of the world will be exceptionally hotter than normal. Additionally, warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast throughout much of Europe. Conversely, parts of the northern Amazon Basin will be considerably wetter than usual.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In South America, precipitation surpluses of varying intensity are expected from the northwestern Amazon Basin through Columbia and Ecuador; surpluses will be exceptional in eastern Amazonas at the confluence of the Amazon and its tributaries in the region. Other areas with forecasts of exceptionally wetter than normal conditions include southern Venezuela where the Orinoco and Casiquiare Rivers meet, and eastern Colombia in the Middle Meta River region. The northern Peruvian Andes and Brazil’s small northeastern states are expected to be wetter than normal.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Precipitation deficits are forecast southeast of Caracas, Venezuela; in Amapá and eastern Bahia, Brazil; the Cordillera Occidental in Peru; and the Altiplano in Bolivia. Moderate surpluses are forecast elsewhere in Bolivia. Some moderate deficits are expected in northwestern Argentina and in the eastern Pampas. Though moderate near Santiago, deficits of greater intensity - severe to extreme - are forecast farther south in Chile, reaching across the border into Patagonian Argentina.

Near-normal precipitation is forecast for most of Central America and the Caribbean with some deficits in Haiti and a few pockets of surplus in Panama, Nicaragua, and Guatemala. Central Mexico will be drier than normal with moderate to severe anomalies. Deficits will reach north into Coahuila and south into pockets of Veracruz and the western Yucatán. Surpluses, generally moderate, are forecast for northwestern Mexico and a few pockets in the central-west.

In the United States, conditions in the Rockies and Southwest will be wetter than normal with moderate to severe surpluses. Surpluses are also forecast in central Nevada reaching across the border into California. The tri-state region of Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee will be moderately wetter than normal. Moderate to severe precipitation deficits are expected in Maine and moderate deficits on the opposite side of the nation in Washington’s Olympic Peninsula. In Alaska, moderate surpluses are forecast in the southwest from Valdez to Juneau, becoming severe as they reach through the corner of Canada’s Yukon.

Canada can expect near-normal conditions overall. In the east, some moderate deficits are forecast in New Brunswick, southern Newfoundland, Montreal, and southern Ontario. In the west, Vancouver Island will be somewhat drier than normal as will a few pockets in northern British Columbia. Some areas of moderate surplus are forecast in the northern reaches of Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

While normal precipitation and mild deficits are forecast Europe, pockets of moderate deficit are predicted for Belgium, Netherlands, England, and France. Moderately drier than normal conditions are also forecast in western Slovakia; from the far east into neighboring Hungary, Ukraine, and Poland; and pockets in southern European Russia.

Nations around the Gulf of Guinea in Africa will be drier than normal with deficits reaching exceptional intensity in western Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea. Precipitation shortfall will reach into the interior through northern Republic of the Congo, northwestern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and land-locked Central African Republic. Surpluses, generally moderate to severe, are forecast in much of Sudan and in a belt across central Chad. In the Horn, southern Eritrea, Djibouti, and the Afar Region of Ethiopia will be much wetter than the norm, while moderate surpluses will reach across southern Ethiopia. Surpluses are also forecast in Uganda, northwestern and central Kenya, and a few pockets in northern Somalia. Southern Somalia will be moderately drier than normal, reaching into coastal Kenya and through Zanzibar. In southern Africa, parts of northern Mozambique will be somewhat wetter than usual and surpluses are also forecast in southern Namibia.

In the Middle East, severe precipitation deficits are expected across northern Turkey and in coastal Georgia with a few pockets of even greater intensity. Deficits in Turkey will moderate as they reach into Central Anatolia. Surpluses of varying intensity, including exceptional anomalies, are forecast for the southeast portion of the Arabian Peninsula. Iran can expect precipitation surpluses in the Zagros Mountains, east of Tehran, and in southern Kerman Province.

Several areas in Central Asia will be wetter than normal including western regions of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, as well as Kyrgyzstan’s eastern half where surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in the far east. Moderate surpluses are forecast in southern Kazakhstan near Lake Balkhash. In Russia, Sakha Republic in east Siberia will be wetter than normal with severe surplus anomalies surrounding the city of Yakutsk in the Middle Lena River region. Moderate surpluses are expected in the Russian Far East in Amur Oblast and Khabarovsk Krai. In southern Siberia, precipitation deficits will be reach extreme intensity in Tuva Republic, downgrading though severe in the south tip of Krasnoyarsk Krai. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in Tomsk and Novosibirsk Oblasts.

Precipitation surpluses are forecast for northwestern India from Gujarat past the Ganges in Uttar Pradesh and will be severe in Gujarat. In the central-south, surpluses of varying intensity are expected in coastal Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. India’s far north and far northeast will be drier than normal as will parts of the Ganges Plain from Uttar Pradesh into Bihar. Elsewhere in South Asia, deficits are forecast in southern Bangladesh and the Hindu Kush in Pakistan, while Punjab, Pakistan and the nation’s southeast corner will be wetter than normal. Lastly, western Sri Lanka will see moderate surpluses.

In the Southeast Asia and Pacific region, much of Myanmar west of the Irrawaddy River and in the south will experience precipitation deficits. Surpluses, primarily moderate to severe, are forecast in the Chi River Watershed in eastern Thailand, the Lower Tonle Sap River region in Cambodia, southeastern Vietnam, Malaysia, much of Indonesia, and New Guinea from its Highland to the Arafura Sea. New Guinea’s Pacific coast will be much drier than normal, conditions that will extend to the nearby archipelago.

In East Asia, moderate surpluses are forecast for southeast China, Taiwan, southern Mongolia, pockets in South Korea, and the northern tip of Honshu, Japan. In northwest China, however, surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in a path through the Qilian, Altun, and Kunlun Mountain Ranges. Southeastern Sichuan and northwestern Mongolia are expected to be drier than normal.

Moderate precipitation surpluses are forecast across much of the breadth of Australia, however, though anomalies will be severe in the eastern Darling Basin of New South Wales, Queensland’s South West region, and the Lake Eyre Basin in South Australia. Darwin and parts of the Cape York Peninsula in the nation’s far north will be wetter than normal, while New Zealand can expect near-normal precipitation.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Vast expanses of central and eastern Brazil will be warmer than the norm with much of that region predicted to have exceptionally hotter temperatures. Elsewhere in South America, severe to extreme heat anomalies are forecast for Suriname and French Guiana, and moderate to severe anomalies in Guyana and the Guiana Highlands into Venezuela. Across the northern arc of the continent, western Venezuela and southern Colombia will be moderately warmer than normal while anomalies east of Quito, Ecuador will be more intense. Heat anomalies in the Peruvian Andes will be exceptional, downgrading through the Altiplano in Bolivia. Temperatures in the Chaco Region of Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina will be cooler than normal.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Some regions in Central America the Caribbean will be warmer than normal, including severe anomalies in southern Guatemala and the Bahamas. In Mexico, the Baja Peninsula, central northern states, central Pacific region, and far south will be warmer than normal; this includes exceptionally hotter temperatures in Coahuila, Durango, and Jalisco, and severe anomalies in Baja. The Yaqui River Watershed from Sonora into Chihuahua will be cooler than the norm.

While warmer than normal temperatures are expected in several regions in the United States, the extent of intense anomalies will be limited. Heat anomalies will extend from Maine through Florida in the East; through the Gulf States and Texas; the West and northern Rockies; and pockets in the Great Lakes region. Anomalies will be intense in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi; Maine; surrounding Reno, Nevada; and from Death Valley, California to Las Vegas and into Arizona. A few cooler than normal pockets are forecast including northwestern New Mexico. Severe heat anomalies are forecast in Puerto Rico.

In Canada, the Maritimes will be much hotter than normal. Moderate to severe heat anomalies are forecast in Newfoundland and eastern Quebec. Temperatures around Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba will be much more intense than normal. Moderate warm anomalies are expected in Alberta, and anomalies of varying intensity in Canada’s northern Nunavut.

Widespread warm anomalies are forecast throughout much of Europe. Temperatures in Spain, France, Corsica, Sardinia, and Sicily will be considerably hotter than normal with severe to exceptional anomalies. The northern U.K. can expect moderate anomalies but excesses will be severe in Wales, southern England, and Ireland. Severe anomalies are also forecast for Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, and southern Germany. Anomalies will be generally moderate in Eastern Europe, pockets of the Balkans, northern Germany, and southern Scandinavia. Temperatures will be near-normal in western European Russia but moderate warm anomalies are forecast approaching the Urals.

Across the vast expanse of North Africa, conditions will be warmer than normal with exceptionally hotter temperatures in eastern Egypt and extreme to exceptional anomalies from northern Morocco into northern Mauritania and Mali. Cool pockets are forecast in the southern Sahara and Sahel, and in eastern Nigeria, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia well into central Kenya, the southern Congo River Basin, southern Tanzania, and northeastern Mozambique. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in pockets around the Gulf of Guinea from Liberia through Togo, the Niger Delta, and southern Cameroon through Gabon. Anomalies will reach inland through Republic of the Congo into the western Congo Basin. In East Africa, moderately warmer than normal conditions are expected in Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania into Kenya, and Somalia’s southern tip. In southern Africa, Botswana will be much warmer than the norm with extreme anomalies reaching to the Vaal River in South Africa; severe anomalies reaching through eastern Namibia; and warm anomalies of generally lesser intensity in Angola, Zimbabwe, and southern Mozambique. Southwestern Madagascar will be warmer than normal.

While a few areas of the Middle East will be cooler than normal - the Black Sea Coast of Turkey and Georgia, southeastern Saudi Arabia, and parts of coastal Yemen - most regions can expect to be warmer than normal. Anomalies will be widespread and intense from Jordan through much of Saudi Arabia, west of the Euphrates and southern Iraq, and in small nations on the Persian Gulf. Southern Turkey and the Mediterranean Levant will see severe heat anomalies though an exceptional pocket is expected in southern Turkey between the Ceyhan and Firat (Euphrates) Rivers. Widespread moderate anomalies are forecast in Iran along with large regions of much greater intensity from western Isfahan Province into its nearby neighbors and in Fars Province.

In Central Asia, temperatures will be moderately warmer than normal in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan, with anomalies becoming severe in eastern Tajikistan. Generally moderate anomalies are expected in large pockets of southern Kazakhstan including south of Lake Balkhash. Eastern Kyrgyzstan will be somewhat cooler than normal around Lake Issyk Kul. Moderate warm anomalies will be widespread in Asian Russia from the Urals through the Western Siberian Plateau but anomalies will be more intense in Arctic coastal regions. Warm anomalies are also forecast in Russia’s Far East, intense in Kamchatka.

The temperature forecast for South Asia includes exceptionally hotter than normal conditions from the Helmand River in Afghanistan past the Pakistan border. In Karachi, temperatures will be considerably warmer than normal as will Pakistan’s far north, but cooler than normal conditions are expected in much of the Indus River Basin. Bangladesh will be exceptionally hotter than normal and heat anomalies will be equally intense in nearby West Bengal, India. Severe to exceptional anomalies are forecast in other Indian regions on the Bay of Bengal reaching inland into Madhya Pradesh, and in the Far Northeast, Jammu and Kashmir, Nepal, and Bhutan. Moderate anomalies are forecast in western Maharashtra and in southern India and Sri Lanka. Rajasthan in western India will be cooler than normal.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal throughout much of Southeast Asia and the Pacific, with extreme to exceptional anomalies blanketing Myanmar, Java and the Lesser Sunda Islands, central and northern Philippines, and New Guinea.

In China, exceptionally hotter temperatures are expected in a vast area of the eastern Tibetan Plateau including Qinghai, Sichuan and eastern Tibet (Xizang), reaching south through much of Yunnan. Heat anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in southern and Southeast China and exceptional anomalies in Taiwan. Anomalies will be intense in the Lower Yangtze River region. Some moderate anomalies are predicted in northern China, cool anomalies in northern Shaanxi, and warm anomalies of varying intensity from western Inner Mongolia through Xinjiang Uygur. Elsewhere in East Asia, conditions in Mongolia will be warmer than normal from the western Gobi Desert through the Hangayn Mountains and in the far northwest. The Korean Peninsula will be warmer than the norm, extremely hotter near Seoul. Intense heat anomalies are forecast for most of Japan though anomalies will be moderate in Hokkaido.

Northern and eastern Australia will be warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies in northern Queensland and Northern Territory, and also in Brisbane. Widespread severe anomalies are forecast from eastern New South Wales through eastern Victoria and throughout Tasmania. Moderate to severe heat anomalies are expected in New Zealand, and exceptional anomalies in New Caledonia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released August 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for August 2022 through April 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued July 25 through July 31, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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