Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Mangystau KZ will moderate

22 July 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2023 indicates exceptional water deficits in western Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region and in the Middle Reaches of the Syr Darya River in the south. Exceptional surpluses are expected in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in far northern Kazakhstan, and extreme to exceptional surpluses in the Alataw Mountains and Kapchagay Reservoir region on the Ile River in the southeast.

Severe to extreme deficits are expected from eastern Turkmenistan into Uzbekistan, and in eastern Tajikistan. Surpluses are forecast throughout much of Kyrgyzstan, in central Tajikistan, and south of Lake Aydar in southeastern Uzbekistan.

In Asian Russia, intense deficits will span the Gulf of Ob, but widespread surpluses are forecast from the central Ural Mountains through much of the Western Siberian Plain. Deficits will reach exceptional intensity north of the Vilyuy Reservoir in Sakha Republic, though exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Tyung River Watershed of northern Sakha. Siberia’s far south will see deficits as will the area in Irkutsk Oblast north of Lake Baikal. In Transbaikal’s Zabaykalsky Krai, however, exceptional surpluses are predicted. Deficits are forecast in the Lena River Delta and west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates that deficits spanning the Gulf of Ob in Russia will increase and exceptional deficits will emerge to the east, transitioning from surplus, to reach past the Yenisei River to the city of Norilsk and the lakes to the south. Surpluses will remain widespread from the Middle Ob River region through the lower regions of the Tunguska Rivers, tributaries of the Yenisei, where anomalies will be intense. Surpluses are also forecast in Tomsk and Kemerovo Oblasts in southwestern Siberia, though deficits are expected in the Republic of Khakassia farther south. In the Central Siberian Plateau, deficits will downgrade but severe to extreme anomalies will persist north of the Vilyuy Reservoir. Intense surpluses will persist in the Tyung River area of northern Sakha Republic, and shrink but remain intense in Transbaikal. Deficits in the Lena Delta will become exceptional while those west of the Sea of Okhotsk shrink and moderate.

In Central Asia, deficits will moderate in Mangystau, Kazakhstan, and moderate deficits will emerge in pockets of Turkmenistan and southeastern Uzbekistan. Surpluses are expected in much of Kyrgyzstan and central Tajikistan, and moderate deficits elsewhere in Tajikistan. Surpluses will persist in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in northern Kazakhstan, and southeast of Lake Balkhash.

From October through December, severe to exceptional deficits will persist from the Gulf of Ob past Norilsk while deficits in the Central Siberian Plateau nearly disappear and anomalies in Khakassia, the Lena Delta, and west of the Sea of Okhotsk shrink. Surpluses will persist in the middle region of the Ob River Watershed, northern Tom River region, the Tyung River region, and Transbaikal. Deficits will nearly disappear in Central Asia. Surpluses are forecast for Akmola, Kostanay, and southeastern Kazakhstan; Kyrgyzstan and central Tajikistan; and south of Lake Aydar in Uzbekistan.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2023 – indicates deficits in Mangystau, the Gulf of Ob past Norilsk, the Central Siberian Plateau, Irkutsk, the Lena Delta, and west of the Sea of Okhotsk. Surpluses will persist in aforementioned areas of Russia and Central Asia and will emerge in regions of Kazakhstan north of Uzbekistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Kyrgyzstan’s Issyk-Kul Region, part of a glacier in the Tien Shen Mountains collapsed in early July, triggering an avalanche. An ecologist in Bishkek, the nation’s capital, stated that warming temperatures will increase the likelihood of future mudflows in the region as the glacier shrinks. And, as the glacier shrinks, so does an important source of water.

Heavy rainfall produced flooding in Sochi, Russia in mid-July. The East Dagomys River overflowed its banks, flooding residential areas of the city and reaching a resort district. Cars travelling on the Batumi Highway were quickly flushed along in the floodwaters.

Extreme temperatures struck Turkmenistan’s capital, Ashgabat in July, reaching 40C (104F) in the shade and putting the city’s water resources in jeopardy. Water rationing was introduced last month, as it had been last year. Residents say taps are currently running for just an hour in the morning and two in the evening.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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