Middle East: Widespread water deficits in Saudi Arabia

22 July 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending March 2023 indicates widespread, intense water deficits in Saudi Arabia and parts of the Levant, and deficits of lesser intensity in Iran and pockets of Turkey.

On the Arabian Peninsula, severe to exceptional deficits are forecast throughout much of Saudi Arabia with severe anomalies in Riyadh Province and exceptional anomalies in the metropolis of Medina. Exceptional surpluses are forecast northeast of Sanaa, Yemen, and pockets of intense deficit near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and in central Oman. Deficits will be severe in Qatar and more intense in United Arab Emirates.

In Iraq, deficits ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast west of the Euphrates and in the Lower Tigris River region. Iran can expect moderate to severe deficits in many of its central provinces and extreme deficits in Bushehr Province on the Persian Gulf. A few pockets of surplus are forecast including on the central Caspian Sea Coast, south of Lake Urmia, and near the Strait of Hormuz.

Mixed conditions are forecast in the Levant with surpluses in central Syria and deficits elsewhere. In Turkey, deficits of varying intensity are forecast in pockets of the west, along the Mediterranean coast, the Ceyhan River Watershed, and Upper Murat River region. Surpluses are forecast from Lake Tuz into the Kizilirmak River Watershed.

Mixed conditions are forecast in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through September indicates deficits in many regions, though especially intense and widespread in Saudi Arabia where anomalies will be exceptional in the center of the nation, accompanied by transitional conditions (pink/purple). Deficits, generally moderate, are forecast in Qatar and UAE. Surpluses are forecast in Yemen’s northwestern corner and severe deficits in northwestern Oman. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Iraq, generally west of the Tigris River. Anomalies will be intense in Baghdad and the lower Gharraf Canal. Some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in the northeast leading into Iran, but deficits will be widespread in much of Iran. Anomalies will be exceptional in Isfahan Province’s northeast. Surpluses are forecast near the Strait of Hormuz and in central Sistan and Baluchistan Province. In Turkey, surpluses are expected on the central Black Sea Coast leading well inland into the Kizilirmak River Watershed to Lake Tuz, and also in pockets of nation’s northeast. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Upper Ceyhan River region. Mixed conditions are forecast in Georgia and Azerbaijan.

From October through December, deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, but exceptional anomalies will persist in southern Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, and moderate to severe deficits in Turkey’s Upper Ceyhan River region. Moderate deficits are forecast in coastal Georgia. Surpluses are forecast from Lake Tuz in Turkey into the Kirzilirmak River Watershed, and north of Konya. Pockets of surplus are also forecast in central Syria; near Tehran, the central Zagros Mountains, and Bandar-e-Abbas in Iran; and Yemen’s northwestern corner and along its central border with Saudi Arabia.

In the final quarter – January through March 2023 – near-normal conditions are forecast overall with deficits in southern Riyadh and along the northern Red Sea in Saudi Arabia and pockets in Georgia and Azerbaijan. Areas of surplus include central Syria, Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, and aforementioned pockets in Yemen.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Intense rainfall over 48 hours in early July produced flash flooding in Oman that claimed one life and prompted rescue operations.

Overstepping federal water management officials, the governor of Babylon Province in Iraq took matters into his own hands in June when he directed the release of Euphrates water to address local agricultural needs. After three years of below-average rainfall in the nation, water shares have become an increasingly contentious issue. Federal water employees were physically assaulted while working in Al-Muthanna Province while local authorities quietly look the other way.

For the second time in a month, a wildfire fueled by drought and high temperatures erupted in the Hour al-Azim wetland shared by Iraq and Iran, sending smoke and air pollution into the Iranian cities of Ahvaz, Hoveyzeh, Hamidiyeh, and Karun.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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