United States: Water deficits in TX will shrink, downgrade

23 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending April 2023 indicates water deficits of varying intensity in the U.S. West, Rockies, parts of the Central Plains, and Texas. Deficits are also expected in New England, the South Atlantic States, and Florida. Surpluses are forecast in the Northern Plains and parts of the Pacific Northwest.

In the West, exceptional anomalies will be widespread in California from San Francisco to Santa Barbara, and severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in the Central Valley. Other areas with a forecast of exceptional deficit include southwestern Arizona, the Utah Rockies, and the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho. Though deficits are forecast in many pockets of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming, some pockets of surplus are also forecast.

In the Pacific Northwest, surpluses are expected from western Washington into Oregon and spanning their shared border region in the east. Deficits will dominate central and southeastern Oregon.

In the center of the nation, deficits are forecast in Nebraska and Iowa, intense in western Nebraska, and moderate pockets are predicted in Kansas and southern Missouri. The Northern Plains, however, can expect widespread severe to extreme surpluses from North Dakota’s eastern half into Minnesota and South Dakota. Surpluses are also expected near western Lake Sakakawea in South Dakota.

The forecast for Texas indicates widespread deficits, extreme in the heart of the state, becoming exceptional in the southern Panhandle. In the U.S. Southwest, moderate surpluses will follow the San Juan and Upper Canadian Rivers. In Louisiana, deficits are forecast in the southwest and at the mouth of the Mississippi.

On the East Coast, New England will see deficits, extreme in coastal Maine. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in pockets of northern Virginia, from eastern North Carolina through Peninsular Florida, and small pockets in the Deep South. Anomalies will be severe in the Cape Fear River Basin of North Carolina. In the Midwest, a few pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in central Indiana, northern Michigan, and northern Wisconsin.

Outside the contiguous U.S., Alaska can expect deficits through the Brooks Range in the north and near Anchorage. Surpluses are expected near Juneau, Nome, west of Bethel, the central region of the Alaska Peninsula, north of Iliamna Lake, and at the eastern end of the Alaska Range. Surpluses are forecast in several of the Hawaiian Islands and deficits in Puerto Rico.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that while many regions will see deficits, intense anomalies will be limited. Deficits will be moderate overall in California’s southern half but exceptional in pockets near Los Angeles. Deficits in the state’s far north will be severe. The Pacific Northwest will see mixed conditions including intense deficits in the Salmon River Mountains and intense surpluses in the Blue Mountains. Deficits are forecast in much of Montana, trailing south through the Rockies. Surpluses will follow the San Juan and Canadian Rivers through New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. Moderate deficits are forecast on the Middle Brazos River in Texas and from eastern Texas into Louisiana. In the Northern Plains, surpluses will be widespread and severe in eastern North Dakota, poking into Minnesota and moderating in South Dakota. Moderate deficits are expected in Iowa and pockets in the Great Lakes States. In Appalachian Kentucky, moderate to severe surpluses are predicted, reaching into nearby states. Deficits are forecast on the East Coast from the Northeast through Florida and into pockets of the Deep South. Anomalies will be moderate overall but extreme in coastal Maine.

From November 2022 through January 2023, normal water conditions will return to much of the nation, though severe deficits will persist in eastern Massachusetts, moderate deficits in the Carolinas, and isolated pockets of deficit in the Rockies. Widespread severe surpluses will persist in North Dakota, moderating to the east and south, and extreme surpluses near Lake Sakakawea. Surpluses will also persist on the San Juan and Canadian Rivers and pockets of the Southwest and Pacific Northwest, and will emerge in southern Illinois, central Ohio, and the border region of northeastern Iowa.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2023 – indicates surpluses, primarily moderate, throughout many pockets in the Rockies and along major rivers in the region. Surpluses will shrink in the Dakotas, and emerge in eastern Wisconsin, pockets of the Northeast, and the southern Sierra Nevadas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
While drought in several regions of the US, particularly those utilizing the Colorado River, has commanded much attention, flash flooding in recent weeks has devastated many areas.

Late July flooding in Appalachia dumped 20 centimeters (8 inches) of rain on Kentucky and claimed 37 lives including four young siblings. Thousands were left without power and entire communities washed away.

On the heels of widespread drought in the West, Furnace Creek in Death Valley, California - the driest place in North America - was deluged during just three hours with rainfall totaling 75 percent of its annual average. Hundreds of guests to the national park were stranded until road crews cleared mud and debris allowing motorists to leave.

Further south in the desert near Palm Springs, flash flooding accompanied by hail stranded 200 visitors to the Palm Springs Aerial Tramway, temporarily closing North Indian Canyon Drive.

In the Midwest, torrential rainfall left parts of Illinois flooded, with some areas receiving over 10 inches of rain in 24 hours.

Heavy rainfall in the middle of August left the Denver Metro area flooded. Stalled cars choked Interstate 70 and 19 motorists were rescued.

And at month’s end, the Dallas-Fort Worth area suffered its wettest 24-hours in a century. One death has been reported so far.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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