South Asia: Widespread water surplus in India & Pakistan

South Asia: Widespread water surplus in India & Pakistan

23 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2023 indicates widespread water surpluses in India through the Deccan Plateau, much of the west, the far north, and parts of the Far Northeast. Surpluses will span the heart of the nation from Maharashtra reaching south through Karnataka with exceptional anomalies in the Middle Reaches of the Godavari River. Western India can expect surpluses from Gujarat through eastern Rajasthan and western Madhya Pradesh with exceptional surpluses in central Rajasthan. In the north, surpluses are predicted from Haryana through Jammu and Kashmir, intense in the far north. India’s Far Northeast can expect surpluses and mixed conditions.

Generally moderate deficits are predicted in the Ganges Plain. Deficits will be exceptional in India’s southernmost tip in Tamil Nadu. Nearby in Sri Lanka, however, surpluses are forecast in the southwest.

Surpluses will be widespread in Pakistan and exceptional in many areas, particularly the south. In Afghanistan, moderate surpluses are forecast east of the Helmand River, becoming more intense in the southeast. Moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of the nation’s west, leading north where anomalies will be more intense in the Hindu Kush.

In Nepal, surpluses of varying intensity are forecast throughout the Himalayas; some moderate deficits will skirt the Indian border. Bhutan will also see surpluses as will much of Bangladesh’s northern half, and surpluses will trace the path of the Padma River as it joins the Meghna to the Bay of Bengal. Moderate deficits are expected in the Ganges Delta.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates widespread surpluses in central and parts of southern India, a vast extent of the nation’s west, and the far north. Anomalies will be intense in the west, exceptional in central Rajasthan. In Maharashtra and Telangana, surpluses will be severe, becoming extreme in the Middle Godavari River region. Surpluses of similar intensity are forecast in central Karnataka. Moderate deficits are forecast in Jharkhand. Central Assam in the Far Northeast will also see deficits though moderate surpluses are expected in neighboring states and nearby regions of Bangladesh. Surpluses are forecast in Nepal, but intense anomalies will be limited to the Gandaki River. Severe surpluses will persist in southwestern Sri Lanka. In Pakistan, widespread surpluses are expected in much of the nation, exceptional in many regions west of the Indus River. Moderate to extreme surpluses will reach into Afghanistan to the Helmand River, encompassing the area from Kandahar to Kabul. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are expected in the south, and deficits in pockets of the west and north.

From November 2022 through January 2023, surpluses will remain widespread in India, generally moderate to severe in the center of the nation but extreme to exceptional in central Rajasthan. Some moderate deficits are forecast in Assam and moderate surpluses will linger in Indian regions east of Bangladesh and in Nepal. Surpluses will retreat in Sri Lanka and moderate deficits will emerge in the southeast. In Pakistan, exceptional surpluses will continue in the south, but surpluses elsewhere will shrink as transitions begin. Surpluses and transitional conditions are expected in eastern Afghanistan.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2023 – indicates persistent, widespread surpluses in India and Pakistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy monsoon rains continue to wreak havoc in South Asia. In the northern Indian states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, flooding and landslides in mid-August left at least 40 people dead, quickly sweeping away homes, damaging bridges, and inundating roads. The Kangra-Gaggal Airport in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh reported 217.8 mm (8.5 inches) of rain in just 24 hours.

Earlier in the month, water released from the Tungabhadra dam in Karnataka in the nation’s south flooded parts of the UNESCO World Heritage Site in Hampi. In the nearby state of Kerala, several major rivers overflowed triggering landslides and flooding that left major roadways impassable.

Though reported figures vary, Pakistan’s monsoon rainfall has been 87 percent above normal and Balochistan Province has received 305 percent more than its average. Around 200 people have died in Balochistan and 40 in the nation’s capital, Karachi, in neighboring Sindh Province. Sindh’s cotton crop was badly damaged, part of over 1 million acres of flood-affected agriculture, and 107,000 livestock have died.

Flash flooding in Afghanistan during August has claimed 95 lives to date.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.