Europe: Widespread water deficits

22 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2023 indicates water deficits throughout much of Europe including intense deficits in many areas. Anomalies will be widespread from Portugal through Germany, in Italy, from Slovakia and Hungary through Ukraine’s western half and Moldova, and in parts of the Baltic region and Sweden.

On the Iberian Peninsula, deficits will be exceptional in a vast area encompassing central and western Spain and in western Portugal. On Spain’s Mediterranean Coast, however, intense surpluses are expected in Valencia Province. In France, widespread exceptional deficits are forecast in the west in the Vienne River Watershed and reaching the city of Bordeaux.

Northern Italy’s Po River Basin will experience exceptional deficits, conditions that will extend through Veneto Region in the northeast. Deficits will also be exceptional from Tuscany to Vatican City and Rome and other pockets on the Tyrrhenian Coast. Other regions of Europe with a forecast of exceptional deficit include much of the Elbe River Watershed in eastern Germany, eastern Slovakia and most of Hungary, the Dniester River Watershed in Ukraine reaching northeast to Kyiv and south through Moldova to Odessa, and central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in many areas in the Balkan region, normalizing in the south, but deficits will be extreme in the central Balkan Mountains of Bulgaria.

In the U.K., moderate deficits are expected in much of England and southern Wales, but anomalies will become more intense on the Thames approaching London and in the East of England. A pocket of deficit is forecast west of Edinburgh.

In Northern Europe, deficits are forecast from southern Norway into Sweden and in the northern Baltic nations. Areas with a forecast of surplus include central Iceland, Lithuania, Arctic Norway, Murmansk, from Lake Ladoga in northwestern Russia through the Vychegda Lowland, and the Desna and Volga River Watersheds.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through October indicates widespread water deficits though the extent of exceptional deficit will shrink considerably. Deficits will be severe in France, Belgium, Netherlands, and Germany, with exceptional anomalies on the Rhône and Rhine Rivers and extreme anomalies on the Loire, Allier, Vienne, Danube, and Doubs Rivers. On the Iberian Peninsula, deficits are forecast in the west, intense in the coastal northwest. Surpluses in Valencia will begin to downgrade, and deficits will emerge to the south in Murcia. Italy can expect deficits to moderate.

In Eastern Europe, deficits will be moderate to severe through western Ukraine and many areas in the Balkans, but intense pockets are forecast from Slovakia into Ukraine and surrounding Tirana, Albania. England and Wales will see moderate to severe deficits, and moderate deficits are forecast from Edinburgh into the Highlands and in Cork County, Ireland. Deficits are expected in southern Sweden, southeastern Norway, Estonia, Latvia, and in St. Petersburg, Yaroslavl, on the Mezen River, and in the northern Urals of Russia. Areas of surplus include Iceland, Arctic Norway, Murmansk, the Vychegda Lowland, Desna and Don River Watersheds, and Middle, Lower, and Transvolga regions of the Volga.

From November 2022 through January 2023, deficits will shrink considerably and moderate, lingering primarily in southwestern France, southern Germany, eastern Croatia, eastern Slovakia, western Ukraine, western Romania, and central Sweden. Surpluses, generally moderate, are forecast in Iceland, Norway, northern Sweden, Murmansk, Lithuania, from Lake Onega to the Svernaya Dvina River, and Middle Volga and Transvolga regions.

The forecast for February through April 2023 indicates deficits from western Ukraine through Bulgaria, and pockets in France. Surpluses are forecast from Switzerland into Austria, and in Iceland, northern Europe, and western Russia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Widespread drought persists in many areas of Europe affecting agriculture, power generation, and shipping. France’s fruit and vegetable output is down by about 35 percent sending prices up over 10 percent so far. As pastures wither, production of a regional French cheese has halted as drought reduces fodder. Olive oil prices could escalate with drought in Italy and Spain curtailing olive harvests. Spain’s minister of agriculture estimates a drop of 25 to 30 percent in production. In Hungary, farmers will benefit from a moratorium on loans, a drought relief effort initiated by the federal government.

Norway is reducing power exports as reservoirs levels fall, conserving hydropower generation for its own use. France will reduce nuclear power production as river temperatures exceed limits beyond which plants cannot expel water used for cooling. But exceptions to this protocol, designed to protect river ecosystems, have been introduced to keep the nation’s power flowing.

Levels have plummeted on many European rivers, threatening trade by halting or reducing barge loads. Rivers like the Rhine and Danube help convey critical commodities such as coal and grain, and inland waterways transport adds $80 billion to the economy.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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