East Asia: Water deficits in Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing

22 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through April 2023 indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in southern China throughout the Pearl River Basin (Zhujiang River) with exceptional anomalies in Guangxi and Guangdong. Anomalies of lesser intensity will reach through Fujian on the southeast coast and through Hainan in the south.

Moderate to severe deficits are forecast around the metropolis of Nanyang in Henan Province, trailing southwest into Guizhou. Deficits are also expected in the Lower Yangtze River region.

Surpluses will be widespread and intense from Shandong into northern Shaanxi. Northeast China, too, can expect surpluses in a vast area from Liaoning to the Chinese border. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the Manchurian Plain.

Widespread, exceptional deficits will reach across a vast belt in Xinjiang Uygur through the city of Hami and the Taklimakan Desert with pockets of transitional conditions (pink/purple) as well. In Tibet (Xizang), intense surpluses will dominate many areas in the western half of the region including the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River. Eastern Tibet, however, can expect deficits, severe around Tibet’s capital, Lhasa.

Intense surpluses will dominate North Korea. In South Korea, exceptional surpluses are expected in a band from Incheon on the Yellow Sea to the Lower Namhan River region, but deficits are forecast in many other regions of the nation. Japan can expect moderate to severe deficits in southern Honshu and in pockets of Kyushu and Shikoku.

In Mongolia, moderate deficits are forecast in the western Gobi Desert leading northwest, intensifying in the western region of the Hangayn Mountains and becoming exceptional in the lakes region of the nation’s far northwest. Surpluses are forecast in far northern Mongolia from the Ider River region to Lake Khovsgol, and in the nation’s east, including the Herlen River and Hentiyn Mountains in the northeast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates persistent surpluses of varying intensity in many areas of Northeast China. From Shandong into northern Shaanxi, severe to exceptional surpluses will continue. In southeast China surpluses will be exceptional in Guangdong, moderating as they reach well into neighboring provinces. Moderate deficits will emerge in the Yangtze Gorges, trailing southwest in pockets to the Vietnamese border. Intense deficits are expected in a pocket of western Sichuan and in central Tibet surrounding Lhasa, while intense surpluses are expected farther west in Tibet. In the nation’s northwest, surpluses are forecast in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor, and mixed conditions in the vast expanse of Xinjiang Uygur. In Korea, moderate surpluses are forecast in the north, reaching into the south and intensifying near Seoul. Near-normal conditions are expected in Japan with some deficits west of Osaka and surpluses in Kyushu’s far south. In Mongolia, surpluses are forecast in parts of the east and isolated pockets of deficit south and west of Ulaanbaatar.

From November 2022 to January 2023, surpluses will shrink but remain widespread in Northeast China, downgrade slightly in Shandong, and persist with intensity in northern Shaanxi. Moderate surpluses will linger in the southeast in Guangdong and Fujian. Widespread deficits are forecast from southern Henan through Yunnan, severe to exceptional in Guizhou and eastern Yunnan. Moderate deficits near Shanghai will increase. Surpluses will intensify in the Qilian Mountains of Qinghai, and widespread deficits will emerge from far western Inner Mongolia into Xinjiang Uygur and Mongolia. Moderate surpluses will linger near Seoul and in Korea’s coastal northwest. Moderate deficits will emerge in pockets of northwestern and southern Korea and increase in southern Japan as surpluses retreat.

The forecast for the final three months – February through April 2023 – indicates persistent surpluses in Northeast China, Shandong through Shaanxi, Qinghai, and western Tibet. Deficits will shrink in south-central China and Xinjiang, increase in western Korea, and emerge north of Beijing and in Zhejiang.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought and extreme heat in China’s Yangtze River Basin have forced power rationing, resulting in factory closures in the southwest region’s key manufacturing hubs. Shutdowns affected production of semiconductors, solar panels, and cement. In Sichuan Province, rolling power cuts were imposed in Dazhou, a city of 3.4 million people, while office air conditioners were ordered off in the provincial capital of Chengdu. In Zheijang Province in the east, over three thousand companies agreed to avoid power use during peak hours in exchange for government compensation.

Cloud-seeding has been initiated to generate rainfall in an attempt to protect the grain harvest during what has become the hottest, driest summer in over 60 years. Water levels are so low near Wuhan in Hubei Province that people are strolling through the exposed riverbed. East of Chongqing in Hubei, 220,000 people are without drinking water and crop damage totals 6.9 million hectares (17 million acres).

In western China, flash flooding in Qinghai Province left 16 dead and 36 missing after rainfall triggered a landslide that diverted a river.

Flooding in Seoul, South Korea, claimed eight lives, caused power black-outs, and turned subways and streets into rivers. Four of the victims perished in so-called “parasite” basement flats, prompting city officials to begin a phase-out plan of these sub-standard accommodations.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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