Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Mexico will shrink

24 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending April 2023 indicates widespread, intense water deficits from Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states into land-locked regions in the center of the country. Deficits are also expected in the Baja Peninsula and several southern states.

Exceptional deficits will blanket much of Coahuila. Severe to exceptional anomalies are forecast in northern Baja, eastern Chihuahua, northern Durango, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla, and Oaxaca. A pocket of moderate surplus is expected in the north-central Yucatán.

In Central America, surpluses are forecast from Belize into Guatemala and in the Motagua River Watershed of Guatemala; from eastern Honduras through Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica; and throughout Panama. Surpluses will be severe to extreme in Panama. Surpluses are also forecast for Cuba and the Bahamas, and moderate deficits in peninsular points of Haiti.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that deficits in Mexico will shrink and downgrade overall though moderate deficits will increase somewhat in the south. Deficits are forecast from southern Nuevo León through land-locked states into Oaxaca, and in pockets along the Gulf of Mexico. Anomalies will be exceptional in Puebla, extreme in Querétaro, and severe in San Luis Potosí. In the north, moderate to severe deficits will persist in southern Chihuahua. Moderate surpluses will continue in the north-central Yucatán and surpluses will emerge in the Yaqui River Basin in northeastern Sonora.

Surpluses, generally moderate to severe, are expected in Belize, the Motagua River Watershed of Guatemala near Honduras, and in eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and Panama. Surpluses are also forecast for Cuba and the Bahamas, but moderate deficits are forecast from eastern Haiti into Dominican Republic and on peninsular points in Haiti.

From November 2022 through January 2023, anomalies in Mexico will shrink overall. However, deficits will increase and intensify from southeastern Chihuahua into Coahuila and Durango and will include exceptional anomalies. Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in Puebla and moderate to severe deficits from Guanajuato through Querétaro into Hidalgo. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in the south. Surpluses in Central America will shrink and downgrade leaving moderate pockets. Surpluses will continue in the Bahamas and Cuba, and deficits will nearly disappear in Hispaniola.

The forecast for the final three months – February through April 2023 – indicates small pockets of exceptional deficit in coastal Jalisco and southeastern Michoacán; severe to exceptional deficits in Puebla; and moderate deficits in southern Chihuahua, southern Baja, and pockets of southern Mexico. Moderate deficits are also forecast for southern Guatemala and El Salvador. Surpluses will persist in pockets of Central America and in Cuba and the Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In response to drought in its northern states, Mexico’s president has announced that no new licenses will be issued for beer manufacturing in the region, home to some of the world’s largest beer factories. The National Water Commission reports that over 60 percent of Mexican towns are suffering water shortages including the northern industrial powerhouse of Monterrey, home to five million people. Water rationing in Monterrey has sparked protests. Water shortage in Nuevo Leon, the state where Monterrey is located, has been declared a “national security” issue by the federal government, allowing the fed to modify its water agreements with private companies.

Heavy rainfall over the past month, up to 400 percent of average, created flood conditions for many municipalities in western and central Guatemala. Mid-August flooding in the capital, Guatemala City, snarled traffic and downed trees. Floodwaters claimed the lives of two policemen in a town southwest of the capital when their car was swept away by rising river waters. Around 50,000 people have been affected in the recent downpour, part of the 2.1 million since the start of the rainy season in May, including 31 deaths.

A major Bahamian insurance company reports that the unusually heavy rainfall during May and June, particularly on New Providence, the nation’s most populous island and home to the capital, Nassau, resulted in $1.6 million in claims due to property and vehicle damage from flooding.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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