South America: Water surplus in Colombia & NW Amazon Basin

24 August 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2023 indicates widespread water deficits in Brazil’s Central West region through the Southeast. Anomalies will be moderate to severe overall but with many areas of greater intensity including exceptional anomalies in pockets of Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and São Paulo.

In the north, deficits are expected throughout the state of Amapá and exceptional anomalies in neighboring French Guiana’s southern half and on the Maroni River. Some pockets of extreme surplus are forecast in the small states of far eastern Brazil and exceptional surpluses in the Chapada Diamontina region of Bahia.

Across the northern arc of the continent, exceptional deficits are forecast from Merida, Venezuela through much of the Orinoco River’s northern watershed. The Orinoco Delta, however, will experience surpluses. Surpluses are also forecast in much of central Colombia - exceptional in the Middle Guaviare River Watershed - and in a pocket northeast of Quito, Ecuador.

In Peru, deficits will be widespread from southern Loreto Region through Ucayali and Pasco Regions, reaching into far western Brazil. Central Bolivia will see severe surpluses in the Upper Yapacani River region while deficits are expected in the nation’s east and south, exceptional in the southern Altiplano.

Widespread exceptional deficits are forecast in Chile from La Serena through Valparaiso and Santiago to the Gulf of Corcovado. In Argentina, widespread deficits are forecast in the eastern Pampas, moderate near Laguna Mar Chiquita in Córdoba Province and near Mar del Plata on the Atlantic, but severe to exceptional in a broad path approaching Buenos Aires. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in coastal Chubut Province near the Valdes Peninsula and deficits in Patagonia, exceptional on the Chico River and in Tierra del Fuego.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates that although deficits are forecast in many areas of Brazil, the extent of intense deficit will be limited. Deficits are expected in large pockets in the southern Amazon Basin, in the nation’s southeast, far west, and far northeast. Anomalies will be widespread and intense in Amapá and Acre, and deficits will reach exceptional intensity in pockets of Mato Grosso, Pará, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul, among others. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in the northwestern Amazon Basin in Brazil, extreme to exceptional surpluses in Brazil’s eastern tip, and exceptional surpluses in the Chapada Diamontina region of Bahia and the Contas River nearby.

Across northern South America, surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in a pocket northeast of Quito, Ecuador, throughout much of Colombia, and from the Orinoco Delta into northern Guyana. Deficits are expected in northwestern Venezuela, exceptional surrounding Merida and downgrading but severe as they reach Caracas. Deficits are forecast in central Peru, moderate overall but more intense near the Brazilian border, and a pocket of exceptional deficit is expected near Arequipa in southern Peru. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Peru’s far northeast and a few pockets in the Andes. Mixed conditions are predicted in Bolivia, and deficits in Chile, moderate near Santiago but exceptional farther south. In Argentina, widespread severe to exceptional deficits are forecast in the eastern Pampas from Córdoba Province to the city of Buenos Aires, and moderate deficits in eastern Buenos Aires Province. A pocket of exceptional surplus is expected in coastal Chubut near the Valdes Peninsula. Patagonia will see deficits of varying intensity, exceptional in Tierra del Fuego.

From November 2022 through January 2023, anomalies will shrink considerably, leaving near-normal conditions in many regions. However, moderate to severe deficits are forecast from south-central Colombia into Peru and Pasco Region in central Peru, and Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil. In Chile, moderate deficits will persist in central regions and extreme to exceptional deficits in Bío Bío and nearby areas. In Argentina, moderate deficits are forecast north of the Salado River as it approaches Buenos Aires and along rivers in Patagonia, but exceptional deficits will persist in Tierra del Fuego and in Patagonia near the Chilean border. Extreme pockets of surplus will continue in Brazil’s eastern tip, but surpluses in Bahia will shrink and moderate. In Bolivia, surpluses will remain severe in the Yapacani Watershed.

In the final quarter – February through April 2023 – deficits are expected in Chile, Bolivia’s southern tip, Tierra del Fuego, and near Caracas. Surpluses are forecast in pockets of eastern Brazil, near Quito, and in central Bolivia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought has dashed Argentina’s hopes of increasing wheat exports to help fill the gap in global supply created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Estimates of 2022-2023 wheat exports are nearly 25 percent below the prior year. Due to lower cultivated acreage, the harvest is expected to be down by about 16 percent.

Brazil’s agricultural GDP plummeted by 8 percent in the first quarter of the year, a decline attributed to drought in the south. Drops in corn and soy accounted for much of the loss. Global coffee prices are expected to rise after drought and frost suppressed Brazil’s arabica bean crop with some experts predicting that this year’s harvest could be barely half that of a good year.

Heavy rains in Colombia caused four dams to burst in Bolivar Department during July. Flooding damaged 13,000 homes and affected around 80,000 people. A deluge in early August triggered flooding in the streets of Medellin, the capital of Antioquia Department, with water submerging the floor of a shopping center. The storm also damaged homes and buildings in a nearby suburb. Nearly 100 communities in the nation remain under an alert for flooding and landslides.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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