Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus in C. Amer & NW Mexico

21 September 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending May 2023 indicates widespread water surpluses in northwestern Mexico from the Sonora and Yaqui River Basins in Sonora State reaching east to the Conchos River in Chihuahua and south to the Fuerte River in Sinaloa. Southern Durango can also expect surpluses. In Baja, intense deficits are forecast in the peninsula’s northern half.

Deficits of generally lesser intensity are forecast in north-central Mexico at the intersection of Coahuila, Chihuahua, and Durango. On the Gulf of Mexico, severe to exceptional deficits are predicted for Tamaulipas State in the north and through its inland neighbor, San Luis Potosí. Reaching south, deficits will downgrade, but become intense again through Puebla and western Oaxaca. A few moderate pockets are forecast on the Pacific in Colima and Michoacán. In the Yucatán Peninsula, some deficits are forecast in the west, moderate surpluses in central Yucatán State, and severe surpluses in southern Quintana Roo.

Surpluses are also forecast throughout much of Central America. Anomalies will be severe overall but of even greater intensity in the Motagua River Watershed of Guatemala and around the Panama Canal. Cuba and the central Bahamas will also see surpluses.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates that deficits in Mexico will retreat overall though anomalies will persist in northern Baja California with some pockets of exceptional intensity. Surpluses in the nation’s northwest will increase and will include exceptional surpluses in Sonora and severe to extreme surpluses in Chihuahua’s southern half. Intense surpluses will increase in Durango and moderate anomalies will emerge in pockets of central Coahuila and around Monterrey, Nuevo León. Surpluses, primarily moderate, will increase somewhat from the Federal District into Guerrero. Isolated pockets of deficit will trace the southern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, but surpluses will linger in the eastern Yucatán. Central America can expect widespread surpluses reaching extreme intensity in central Honduras and the Middle Motagua River Watershed in Guatemala. Surpluses are forecast in Cuba and the central Bahamas, and some pockets of deficit will linger in Haiti.

From December 2022 through February 2023, surpluses will persist in northwestern Mexico but will shrink and downgrade, as will surpluses in southern Durango. Deficits are forecast at the intersection of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Durango, and in southern Mexico along the Gulf of Tehuantepec and may include intense pockets. Surpluses in Central America are expected to shrink and downgrade, persisting primarily in Honduras and Nicaragua. In Cuba, surpluses and transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast. The central Bahamas will continue to see surpluses.

The forecast for the final three months – March through May 2023 – indicates exceptional deficits in southern Baja and west-central Mexico from Durango through Colima, and severe deficits in southeastern Chihuahua. Some surpluses will persist in Sonora, and linger in northern Central America, Cuba, and the central Bahamas.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In late September, Hurricane Fiona forged a path through the Caribbean, taking aim at the Dominican Republic after devastating Puerto Rico, claiming two lives in D.R. and triggering a state-of-emergency declaration. Early reports indicate that the storm displaced over 13,000 Dominicans and knocked out power to over 400,000.

On the French island of Guadeloupe, floodwaters from Fiona swept away a home, killing one person.

While Fiona did not strike Costa Rica, heavy rainfall caused a landslide on a mountain pass in Alajuela Province, sending several vehicles into a ravine and resulting in nine deaths. South of the city of San Jose, flooding affected several communities after the Cañas River overflowed.

In late August, torrential rain triggered floods and landslides in a number of Mexican states. Coahuila, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and Morelos all reported damage including flooded homes, buildings, and schools and stranded cars. Three deaths were reported.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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