Europe: Water deficits will downgrade

21 September 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2023 indicates water deficits throughout much of Europe including intense deficits in many areas. Anomalies will be widespread from Portugal through Germany, in Italy, from Slovakia and Hungary through Ukraine’s western half and Moldova, and in parts of the Baltic region and Sweden.

On the Iberian Peninsula, deficits will be exceptional in a vast area encompassing central and western Spain. On Spain’s Mediterranean Coast, however, intense surpluses are expected in Valencia Province. In France, exceptional deficits are forecast in the west in the Vienne River Watershed.

Northern Italy’s Po River Basin will experience exceptional deficits, conditions that will extend into Veneto Region in the northeast. Deficits will also be exceptional from Tuscany to Vatican City and Rome and other pockets on the Tyrrhenian Coast, in Sicily, and most of Sardinia. Other regions of Europe with a forecast of exceptional deficit include the area around Lake Geneva; much of the Elbe River Watershed in eastern Germany; eastern Slovakia and most of Hungary; parts of the Dniester and Pietinis Bugas River Watersheds and Zaporizhzhia Oblast in Ukraine; Moldova; central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed; and Estonia. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in many pockets of the Balkan region.

In the U.K., moderate deficits are expected in much of England becoming severe in the West Midlands and Wales. Moderate surpluses are expected in Western Yorkshire, England; southern Ireland, especially County Cork; and mixed conditions in Scotland including deficits in the Grampian Mountains in the Highlands.

In Northern Europe, deficits are forecast from southeastern Norway through Sweden’s southern half and in the northern Baltic nations. Areas with a forecast of surplus include central Iceland, Lithuania, and Arctic Norway. In Russia, surpluses are forecast in Murmansk, from Lake Ladoga past Lake Onega, the Vychegda Lowland, and the Middle and TransVolga regions. Moderate deficits are forecast in the Upper Volga River Watershed and intense deficits in the Mezen River Watershed.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through November indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably though remain widespread. Anomalies will be pervasive from France through Belgium, Netherlands, and Germany, moderate to severe overall with some pockets of greater intensity. Deficits will persist in western Ukraine, increase in Belarus, and intense pockets will continue in Slovakia. Pockets of predominantly moderate deficits are predicted in the Balkans and Italy. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in southern regions of Norway, Sweden, and Finland, and in Estonia and Latvia. Parts of the U.K. and Ireland can expect generally moderate deficits. Surpluses will persist in Valencia and shrink in Iceland and Lithuania. Other regions with a forecast of surplus include Murmansk, the Vychegda Lowland, and the Volga’s Lower, Middle, and TransVolga regions. Moderate deficits are expected in the Upper Volga River Watershed and severe to extreme deficits in the Mezen River region.

From December 2022 through February 2023, normal water conditions will return to many regions. However, exceptional deficits will persist in the Dalälven River Watershed in Sweden and pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in southern France, the Emilia-Romagna region of northern Italy, eastern Croatia, and the Dniester River. Surpluses will shrink in Murmansk and southwestern Russia, increase in Lithuania, and emerge from Switzerland into Germany, in pockets of Czech Republic, and in the northern U.K., and Norway.

The forecast for March through May 2023 indicates that intense deficits in central Sweden will shrink and severe deficits will emerge in Bulgaria. Generally moderate deficits are forecast in pockets from the Dniester River through the eastern Balkans and pockets in France, Italy, Croatia, and northern European Russia. Areas of surplus, moderate overall, include Switzerland, the U.K. and Ireland, Iceland, southern Norway, northern Sweden, western Finland, and northern Russia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Market experts have once again revised their European Union crop forecasts down to reflect drought impacts throughout much of the region. Maize production is likely to be 19 percent below 2021 output and sunflower seed 14 percent below last year.

The drought left rivers levels in France too low to provide cooling water for some of the nation’s nuclear power plants, sending electricity prices soaring.

Along with prolonged drought, a summer heat wave in Europe contributed to an increase in the number of wildfires as well as their intensity, leading to the highest carbon emissions in the region in 15 years. Spain and France recorded their highest emission in 20 years.

This year’s wildfire season in France broke the decade’s record, with fires consuming more than 646 square kilometers (249 square miles) so far.

Drought and heat have not been the only climatic extremes disrupting Europe. A heavy rainstorm in central Italy’s Marche region triggered flooding that claimed eleven lives as it raged through streets, dumped debris on roads and bridges, and left thousands of people without power. Up to 19 inches of rain fell in just a few hours.

Rainfall in early September pushed several rivers in Bulgaria over flood level in Plovdiv Province, leaving floodwaters two meters (nearly 7 feet) deep in some communities. An entire village was submerged on the Stryama River. Bridges and roads were damaged, rendering some towns unreachable except by air, with little drinking water and no electricity.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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