Canada: Water deficits in the provinces’ northern regions

26 September 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through May 2023 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in the eastern half of the nation and central and northern regions of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and British Columbia.

In the east, deficits will be exceptional in many regions including southern Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, the Miramichi River Watershed in New Brunswick, and the following regions in Quebec: from the Caniapiscau River past the Smallwood Reservoir; the Manicouagan Reservoir into Minganie Region; west of Lake Mistassini; the Ungava Peninsula; and the Lower Saint Maurice River. Surpluses are forecast in Quebec between the Saint Maurice River and Lac Saint Jean.

Intense deficits are expected in a broad column in eastern Ontario from James Bay into Southern Ontario, and in a pocket north of Lake Erie. Deficits will be widespread in northern Kenora District though surpluses are forecast for southern Kenora.

Widespread intense deficits will form a belt across central Manitoba and are also forecast in the province’s northeast along Hudson Bay, while surpluses are expected in the northwest. Surpluses are also expected around much of Lake Winnipeg and in a pocket on the U.S. border, but the city of Winnipeg can expect intense deficits. Elsewhere in the Prairie Provinces, deficits will be exceptional in a path across south-central Saskatchewan leading to Regina and of varying intensity in the center of the province, but widespread surpluses are forecast in the northwest leading west past Fort McMurray, Alberta. In Alberta, deficits are expected in a pocket near the southern border, exceptional deficits in the Middle Athabasca River region and the northwest, and surpluses near Calgary.

Surpluses are forecast in the Thompson River Watershed of southern British Columbia leading east into the Columbia Watershed, but exceptional deficits are expected in East Kootenay in the province’s southeast corner. Exceptional deficits are also forecast in the Upper Fraser and Nechako River Watersheds. In British Columbia’s central far north, intense deficits will lead from Williston Lake well into Yukon and Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates many areas of deficit in the east, frequently intense, including areas of Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, from the Caniapiscau River Watershed in Quebec past the Smallwood Reservoir (Newfoundland and Labrador), and in the Côte-Nord and Lake Mistassini regions. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are predicted from Montreal to the mouth of the Saint Maurice River. In Ontario, deficits will be exceptional along James Bay, downgrading as they reach into Southern Ontario, and moderate deficits are forecast in a pocket north of Lake Erie. Intense deficits are forecast in northern Kenora, moderate deficits in Thunder Bay District, and surpluses on the U.S. border near International Falls. In Manitoba, surpluses will linger on the southern border, around Lake Winnipeg, and in the province’s far northwest, but widespread, exceptional deficits will persist north of Lake Winnipeg and near Hudson Bay. Moderate deficits are expected in southeastern and central Saskatchewan, and intense surpluses from the northwest into Alberta. Intense deficits will be widespread in central Alberta and the northwest. In British Columbia, surpluses are expected in the Thompson, Quesnel, and West Road River Watersheds, and near Kelowna; intense deficits are forecast in East Kootenay and from the Upper Fraser Watershed past Lake Williston in the far north.

From December 2022 through February 2023, deficits will shrink and downgrade overall, but large areas will persist in Quebec, Northern Ontario, and Manitoba. Surpluses will emerge in the Ungava Peninsula and increase in southern Kenora. Deficits will shrink in the western half of the nation but remain widespread in central Alberta and northern British Columbia.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2023 – indicates a pattern of anomalies like the prior three months though surpluses will nearly retreat from Ungava and Kenora and deficits in western Canada will shrink.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Hurricane Fiona roared up the Atlantic Coast from the Caribbean in late September, targeting Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and creating damage described by Canada’s emergency preparedness minister as “unprecedented.” The storm knocked out power to 290,000 people in Nova Scotia and 85,000 on Prince Edward Island. One death was reported in the small town of Port aux Basques, Newfoundland, where 20 homes were destroyed and damage is estimated to be in the millions of dollars. Federal troops were deployed to Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland to clear debris.

In the Prairie Provinces, drought hasn’t affected as much growing area this summer as last but some crops in dry pockets have not escaped negative impacts. Durum yields in southwestern Saskatchewan are down as is red lentil production, and water for livestock is in short supply. As much as lack of precipitation, farmers are also concerned about deficits of reserve moisture, making even post-harvest precipitation essential to recharge soil moisture. Scant rainfall in the first few weeks of September has done little to improve the situation.

Drought conditions and warmer winters have allowed the gopher population in the Prairies to thrive, creating another worry for farmers. The critter, officially known as the Richardson ground squirrel, takes advantage of the looser soil, burrowing holes and consuming crops. The holes invite further damage from badgers who take over, enlarging them to the point that ranchers are losing calves that fall into them.

New estimates by a global engineering firm indicate that climate change impacts - drought, floods, and extreme weather - could cost Canada $130 billion over the next 30 years. The study predicts the biggest losses will affect manufacturing and distribution.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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