Middle East: Intense water deficit forecast in Riyadh

27 September 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending May 2023 indicates widespread water deficits in Saudi Arabia, Iraq west of the Euphrates River, the Levant, and southern Turkey.

On the Arabian Peninsula, deficits will be moderate to severe overall in Saudi Arabia, but exceptional bordering the northern coast of the Red Sea and in the nation’s southeast corner leading through the United Arab Emirates. Widespread surpluses are forecast in the south bordering Yemen and well into Yemen and will include intense anomalies.

Deficits will be moderate to severe in the Levant, severe to extreme in Iraq west of the Euphrates, and moderate in southern Iraq.

In Turkey, deficits are predicted in the west, along the Mediterranean coast, in the Ceyhan River Watershed, and near Lake Van. Anomalies will be intense in pockets of the south including the city of Konya. Surpluses are forecast in a pocket east of Lake Tuz. Intense deficits are forecast in much of Georgia though surpluses are expected south of the Kura River.

Iran can expect moderate to severe deficits in Bushehr Province on the Persian Gulf and in the Lut Desert, and moderate deficits in Isfahan Province, the northeast, and far northwest. Surpluses are expected in the southeast, along the southern Persian Gulf, and in a pocket on the central Caspian Sea Coast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates mixed conditions on the Arabian Peninsula including widespread deficits in Saudi Arabia, exceptional in Riyadh Province; surpluses in the southeast leading into Yemen; and transitional conditions (pink/purple) in many regions of Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Deficits are forecast in Oman. In the Levant, surpluses are predicted for Cyprus, northern Israel, and a pocket in northwestern Syria. Transitional conditions are expected in central Syria and moderate deficits elsewhere in the nation, pockets of Jordan, and Iraq west of the Euphrates. Deficits will be exceptional in southern Iraq from the Euphrates to the Tigris River. In Iran, deficits of varying intensity are predicted with intense anomalies in the northeast and in Fars and western Kerman Provinces. Surpluses are forecast in the Hamoun Wetlands, in the north near Tehran, and in northern Kurdistan Province.

In Turkey, surpluses are expected near Konya, from Lake Tuz into the Kizilirmak River Watershed, and in the Middle Murat River region. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Upper Ceyhan River region and deficits of greater intensity on Turkey’s eastern Black Sea Coast leading through much of Georgia. Surpluses are forecast in Georgia south of the Kura River and into Armenia.

From December 2022 through February 2023, deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, persisting primarily in southern Riyadh Province, a pocket in Turkey’s Central Anatolia, and western Georgia into Turkey. Surpluses will persist in Yemen’s northwestern corner and near Konya and Lake Tuz in Turkey, and will increase or re-emerge in central Syria, near Lake Urmia in Iran, from Tehran into northeastern Iran, and on the central Saudi/Yemeni border.

In the final quarter – March through May 2023 – deficits are forecast in pockets of Georgia, Azerbaijan into Iran, Turkey’s Black Sea Coast, and southern and northwestern Saudi Arabia. Surpluses are forecast in central Syria, northwestern Yemen, and northeastern Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Cholera cases are on the rise in Syria, a situation one health official attributes to lower flows on the Euphrates River. Since the outbreak in early September, 250 cases have been reported and 23 deaths. Drought, higher temperatures, and diversion have reduced the river’s flow, concentrating the effects of pollution from sewage and oil. Much of Syria’s water treatment infrastructure is in disrepair after years of war, leaving many regions with contaminated drinking and irrigation water. Nearly one-third of Syrians rely on the Euphrates for drinking water.

In Iraq, lower flows on the Tigris River have reduced the nation’s cultivated acreage by half. Again, a combination of precipitation shortfalls, high temperatures, and water diversion are cited. No crops will be grown in the once productive Diyala Governate where the Diyala River, a tributary of the Tigris, has dried up.

Heavy precipitation in late August triggered flooding in the metropolis of Istanbul, Turkey, inundating shops and homes. Several people were rescued as floodwaters swept through the streets. Just a few weeks earlier, flooding in the city halted air traffic, drenched the famed Grand Bazaar, and created sinkholes that swallowed several cars.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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