Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan

27 September 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2023 indicates deficits of varying intensity in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Caspian regions of Kazakhstan and large areas in central and southern Kazakhstan as well as pockets in the nation’s east and in Aktobe Region in the north.

Deficits will be severe to exceptional in Caspian Kazakhstan, particularly Mangystau Region, and spanning the western border shared by Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. In the Middle and Lower regions of the Syr Darya River deficits will be nearly as intense.

Exceptional surpluses are expected in Akmola and Kostanay Regions in far northern Kazakhstan, and extreme to exceptional anomalies from Kapchagay Reservoir on the middle reaches of the Ile River through the nation’s southeast corner. Other areas of surplus include the eastern Kazakh Upland and central Alataw Mountains. Surpluses will be exceptional in central Tajikistan, but deficits are forecast in the east. In Kyrgyzstan, exceptional surpluses are forecast in the south, moderate deficits in the center of the nation, and severe to extreme surpluses in the east.

In Asian Russia, intense deficits will span the Gulf of Ob and widespread surpluses are forecast through most of the Western Siberian Plain and well into much of the vast Yenisei River Watershed. Exceptional deficits are forecast in the Lena River Delta (not shown); exceptional surpluses in the Tyung River Watershed, a western tributary of the Lena; and surpluses of varying intensity in the Lena’s southern watershed. In Transbaikal, surpluses will be exceptional in Zabaykalsky Krai. In southern Siberia, intense deficits are expected in the Republic of Khakassia and the Western Sayan Mountains. Deficits will also be intense west of the Sea of Okhotsk.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates that deficits spanning the Gulf of Ob in Russia will downgrade slightly, but anomalies will re-emerge reaching east past the city of Norilsk. Surpluses will continue from the Western Siberian Plain well into the Yenisei Watershed. Intense surpluses will emerge between the Podkamennaya Tunguska and Angara Rivers and increase in eastern Tomsk Oblast. Deficits will persist in southern Siberia in Khakassia and the Western Sayan Mountains and emerge southeast of Lake Baikal. In the Lena River Watershed, deficits in the Delta (not shown) will nearly disappear, while surpluses will remain widespread elsewhere. Deficits west of the Sea of Okhotsk will shrink. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in central Turkmenistan and pockets from Uzbekistan into southern Kazakhstan along with transitional conditions (pink/purple). Mixed conditions are forecast in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. In Kazakhstan, surpluses are forecast in the north, west of the Ural River, the eastern Kazakh Upland, and the nation’s southeastern corner near the Ile River.

From November 2022 through January 2023, deficits will persist from the Gulf of Ob past Norilsk, in Khakassia and the Western Sayan Mountains, and near the Sea of Okhotsk, and will become exceptional southeast of Lake Baikal. Surpluses will shrink somewhat in the Western Siberian Plain and persist in the Middle Yenisei Watershed. Deficits will persist in eastern Tajikistan, increase in Kazakhstan’s far east, and emerge in northern Kazakhstan, transitioning from surplus. Surpluses will emerge in pockets of southern Kazakhstan and re-emerge on the Amu Darya River and around Aydar Lake in Uzbekistan.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2023 – indicates near-normal conditions in Central Asia with moderate deficits in Mangystau and pockets of surplus in southeastern and far northern Kazakhstan. The pattern of anomalies in Asian Russia will be similar to that of the prior forecast though surpluses will increase in the Western Siberian Plain and deficits near Baikal and in southern Siberia will shrink and downgrade.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Hot, dry weather in northern Kazakhstan’s Kostanay Province help fuel a wildfire in early September that consumed 43,000 hectares (106.255 acres). One person was killed, ten injured, and 1,800 people were evacuated from several villages. Freight and passenger trains in the region were delayed. Firefighting efforts included the deployment of 600 personnel and three aircraft.

A dry August in Khakassia, a Russian republic in southern Siberia, increased the region’s fire hazard risk and six forest blazes erupted in early September. A state of emergency was declared in Shirinsky district north of Khakassia’s capital city, Abakan. August precipitation in Khakassia was 40 to 45 percent below the norm and temperatures in early September were expected to reach 35C (95F).

Dry conditions and usually high temperatures over the summer left many rivers in European and Siberian Russia at low levels, disrupting navigation. The Russian Hydrometeorological Center noted eight regions with dangerously low river flows: Nizhny Novgorod, Kirov, Leningrad, Komi, Khakassia, Dagestan, Krasnoyarsk Territory, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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