Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook October 2022

4 October 2022

OVERVIEW
Our October 2022 Outlook indicates that much of Australia’s northern half will be wetter than normal, particularly the Kimberley in Western Australia and Queensland’s Central West. A number of regions around the world can expect exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures, including the southern Arabian Peninsula.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
While precipitation in New Zealand will be relatively normal, widespread surpluses are forecast in Australia’s northern half and parts of the south. Anomalies will be intense in the Kimberley region of Western Australia - exceptional in the Ord River Watershed - and will reach the Victoria River in Northern Territory (NT). Surpluses will also be intense in NT’s Kakadu National Park in Top End. In Queensland, extreme surpluses are forecast in the Central West region. Moderate to severe precipitation surpluses are expected in western New South Wales and Victoria, generally moderating through South Australia’s eastern half.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

In Southeast Asia, surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in central and western Myanmar, moderate to severe surpluses in central and north-central Vietnam, and some pockets of moderate deficit in the northwest. In Pacific regions, surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in Java, the Lesser Sunda Islands, Sulawesi, and the Merauke Regency of Papua, Indonesia. Surpluses of lesser intensity are expected in Borneo, Mindanao (Philippines), the Maluku Islands, and New Guinea from the Bird’s Head Peninsula through much of the island’s southern half, while deficits will trace the north coast.

China can expect moderate precipitation deficits in the south, and moderate to severe surpluses in the Lower and Middle Yellow (Huang He) River Basin, Qinghai, western Yunnan, and Sichuan’s southern tip. Moderately wetter than normal conditions are expected in Beijing, around the Bohai Sea, and in the Nen (Nenjiang) River region in Northeast China. Elsewhere in East Asia, surpluses will be moderate spanning the border of North and South Korea and along the northern coast. Near-normal precipitation is forecast for Japan and Mongolia.

In South Asia, Bangladesh will be wetter than normal with moderate to severe anomalies that will reach well into far eastern India. Moderate surpluses will be widespread in Indian states along the northern Bay of Bengal, and are also expected in eastern Uttar Pradesh and from southern Karnataka through Kerala. Southwestern Sri Lanka will be wetter than normal while the southeast will be drier. The northern halves of Afghanistan and Pakistan will see moderate precipitation deficits that will become severe in the Hindu Kush. Moderate deficits will reach into northwestern India.

A few areas of Central Asia will be moderately drier than normal including Tajikistan’s eastern half and small pockets in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. In Asian Russia, moderate precipitation surpluses are forecast in Lensky District and the North Siberian Lowland in Siberia, the Lena Delta, and northwestern Kamchatka. Moderate deficits are expected in the Lower and Middle Indigirka River Watershed in Sakha Republic.

In the Middle East, somewhat drier than normal conditions are forecast in Ha'il Region in Saudi Arabia, southwestern Turkey and Turkish Thrace, many areas in Iran’s northern half, and pockets in western Georgia, southern Jordan, and from Syria into Iraq.

North Africa, too, will see some moderate precipitation deficits in scattered pockets of central Algeria, northeastern Libya, and northern Mali, and pockets along the Atlantic from Guinea Bissau through Liberia. Moderate deficits are also forecast in Somaliland; the northern half of Mozambique and pockets in neighboring nations; southwestern Angola and northern Namibia; and from Madagascar’s northern tip reaching along the northeast coast and a pocket in the south. Some pockets of moderate surplus are forecast in western Ethiopia and pockets of moderate deficit in the nation’s north-central and south-central regions. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast from southern Sudan through eastern South Sudan and Uganda into Rwanda, Tanzania, and Democratic Republic of the Congo. Anomalies will be extreme in southeastern South Sudan. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include southern Republic of the Congo into Gabon, and Kano State in northern Nigeria.

A few regions in Europe can expect moderate deficits including some pockets in Spain, Italy, and Greece. Moderately wetter than normal conditions are predicted in Scotland, Northern Ireland, western Ireland, and pockets in southwestern Norway. Widespread surpluses are forecast in western European Russia, moderate overall but severe north of the Dnieper River in Smolensk Oblast through Tver and Yaroslavl Oblasts past Rybinsk Reservoir to Lake Beloye in Vologda Oblast.

Precipitation in much of South America will be relatively normal. Deficits are expected in pockets through the Andes from Colombia’s western corner through western Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile into Argentina. Anomalies will be severe in western Ecuador and a few pockets in southern Peru. Drier than normal conditions are forecast in northern Brazil spanning the border shared by Pará and Maranhão States where small pockets could reach extreme intensity. In southeastern Brazil, moderate deficits are forecast in eastern regions of Paraná and Santa Catarina States. Southern Uruguay as well will be moderately drier than normal. Argentina’s northwestern province of Tucumán will see moderate surpluses.

In Central America and the Caribbean, moderate deficits are predicted for Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras, and some moderate surpluses along the Caribbean Coast of Honduras. Central and southern Mexico will be drier than normal with some severe anomalies, particularly in Oaxaca. Moderate deficits are forecast in northern Tamaulipas on the Gulf Coast and in western Mexico in Baja and Sinaloa; a severe pocket is expected southeast of Tijuana.

In the United States, moderate deficits are forecast in SoCal; eastern Kansas through western Missouri and pockets of Iowa; the Ohio River Basin from southern Ohio through Kentucky and Tennessee into northeastern Alabama; some pockets in Michigan; and central Maine.

Canada can expect moderate to extreme precipitation deficits in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, and moderate deficits in New Brunswick, Labrador, and pockets in Quebec including the Upper Saguenay River area and the western Outaouais Region. Quebec’s Ungava Peninsula will be moderately wetter than normal. Moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of Southern Ontario and in the middle watershed of the Albany River in Northern Ontario. In western Canada, moderate deficits are forecast in southern Alberta and in the far north of the province near Lake Athabasca. Moderate surpluses are forecast in northwestern British Columbia. Surpluses are expected throughout most of Nunavut.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Widespread warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in much of the Middle East. Temperatures will be moderately warmer along Turkey’s Mediterranean Coast and in the Levant, gradually increasing in intensity in the Arabian Peninsula and becoming exceptional in Yemen and southern Oman. Western Iraq will be warmer than normal with moderate to severe anomalies west of the Euphrates, but exceptionally hotter temperatures are expected in the south surrounding the Hammar Marshes. Warm anomalies will be widespread in Iran, exceptional from the Persian Gulf through Fars Province and into Kerman Province. In the Lesser Caucasus region, Armenia and Azerbaijan can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies and southeastern Georgia will be moderately warmer. Somewhat cooler than normal conditions are expected following the Black Sea Coast in Georgia and Turkey.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

The prediction for Africa indicates that moderate to severe warm anomalies will blanket the continent’s vast northwest quadrant. On the Atlantic farther south, conditions will be warmer than normal from Guinea around its namesake gulf, reaching extreme intensity in some pockets including Liberia and exceptional intensity in Nigeria at the confluence of the Niger and Benue Rivers. On the opposite side of the continent along the Red Sea, warm anomalies are forecast for Egypt east of the Nile and in the Delta, in Sudan’s northern half, and in parts of the Horn of Africa where temperatures will be exceptionally hotter than normal in many areas from northeastern Sudan through Somaliland. South Sudan will be cooler than normal, exceptionally cooler in the Sudd. Cool anomalies of generally lesser intensity are expected in southern Sudan and pockets in southern Chad and northeastern Nigeria into Cameroon.

The eastern Congo River Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will be cooler than normal in the Lualaba and Lomami River regions, while temperatures will be moderately warmer in the Ruki and northern Kasai Basins in western DRC. Around Lake Turkana in Kenya, exceptionally hotter temperatures are forecast, while warm anomalies from southern Kenya well into Tanzania will be moderate to severe. Most areas south of DRC can expect to be warmer than normal and exceptionally hotter conditions are forecast from Botswana into southern regions of Zimbabwe and Mozambique and through northern South Africa reaching the Upper Vaal River. Madagascar, too, will be warmer than normal with intense anomalies in the southwest.

Western Europe is forecast to be warmer than normal with moderate to severe anomalies from southern Norway through the Iberian Peninsula. However, temperatures will be extremely hotter in eastern Portugal and into Spain along the Guadiana River. Moderate warm anomalies are expected in Romania, southern Italy, Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica, and along the Adriatic Coast in the Balkans.

In Asian Russia, temperatures will be moderately warmer than normal throughout the Central Siberian Plateau and in the Arctic region to the north, and in Irkutsk Oblast, southern Sakha Republic, and Primorsky Krai on the Sea of Japan. In Central Asia, warm anomalies will be moderate to severe in southern and Caspian Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Anomalies will be more intense in Tajikistan, extreme in the east.

Afghanistan and Pakistan will also be warmer than normal, exceptionally hotter from the Upper Helmand River region in Afghanistan to the Indus River in Pakistan. Somewhat cooler than normal conditions are forecast along the Indus near Larkana in Sindh Province but southern Pakistan, including Karachi, will be much hotter than normal. Elsewhere in South Asia, India’s far north will be much hotter than normal, while western Rajasthan will be moderately warmer. The nation can expect a few small cool pockets, including one in northeastern Uttar Pradesh. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected in a vast path along the Bay of Bengal through Tamil Nadu in the south. In West Bengal, however, anomalies will be extreme to exceptional. Bangladesh will be exceptionally hotter than normal with conditions extending through Indian regions to the east. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in Nepal and Bhutan, extreme in Katmandu.

In East Asia, much of Japan will be extremely hotter than normal, with anomalies downgrading though severe in the south and well into South Korea. Taiwan can expect severe to extreme warm anomalies as well. In China, temperatures will be warmer than normal south of the Yangtze River with severe to extreme anomalies in the southeast (Jiangxi, Fujian, and Guangdong). In the west, Tibet (Xizang), western Sichuan, and Qinghai will be much warmer than normal, and anomalies of varying intensity are predicted in Xinjiang Uygur. Inner Mongolia and Northeast China’s Heilongjiang are forecast to be moderately warmer.

Nearly all of Southeast Asia and the Pacific can expect warmer than normal temperatures of varying intensity. Extreme to exceptionally hotter temperatures are forecast in many regions including Myanmar and the Philippines.

Similar hot anomalies are predicted in Australia’s far north in coastal Kimberley; Darwin and Arnhem Land in Northern Territory; around the Gulf of Carpentaria; and the Cape York Peninsula. Cooler than normal conditions are forecast in the Outback in central Western Australia. Moderately cooler pockets are expected in Queensland southeast of Mount Isa and in the Mackenzie River catchment, and in a path through New South Wales in the central Murray-Darling Basin. In Tasmania, Hobart will be moderately warmer than normal but severe warm anomalies are expected in the state’s west. Southern New Zealand will be moderately warmer and New Caledonia will be exceptionally hotter.

In South America, warm anomalies are forecast across the breadth of Brazil, moderate in the west but more intense in the north and northeast with exceptionally hotter temperatures in Tocantins. Warm anomalies will extend north through French Guiana. From southern and western Venezuela through Colombia and Ecuador warm anomalies ranging from moderate to severe are forecast but anomalies will become exceptional in the south-central Andes of Peru. La Paz, Bolivia will be warmer than normal. Widespread moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in Argentina’s northwest, the Pampas, and Patagonia. Moderately warmer temperatures are predicted for Uruguay reaching into Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. In Chile, warm anomalies of varying intensity are expected in the Atacama Desert and moderate anomalies in central Chile.

While Honduras and Belize will see relatively normal temperatures, much of the rest of Central America will be warmer than normal. In the Caribbean, Jamaica will be exceptionally hotter, the Bahamas and Haiti nearly as hot, and anomalies of lesser intensity elsewhere. Mexican states on the central Pacific Coast will be much hotter than the norm, and warm anomalies are expected in Oaxaca and Chiapas in the south. Baja will be warmer than normal with severe anomalies in the north, while across the Gulf of California northwestern Sonora will be much hotter than normal. Moderate cool anomalies are expected from eastern Sonora into Chihuahua and Sinaloa, and moderate warm anomalies in southeastern Chihuahua.

Though near-normal temperatures are expected in the U.S. south from southern Texas through the Gulf Coast, Florida, and Georgia, much of the rest of the United States will be warmer than normal. Anomalies in the West will be moderate to extreme. Areas with a forecast of extremely hotter temperatures include the Salmon River Mountains in Idaho, the Mohave Desert in California, southwestern Arizona, the Sierra Blanca Range in New Mexico, and a pocket near Cheyenne, Wyoming. Widespread, moderate warm anomalies are forecast in the Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes Region, Ohio River Basin, New England, and Mid-Atlantic States. Note, however, that anomalies in northern Michigan will be much more intense. Outside the contiguous U.S., Hawaii will be extremely hotter than normal and severe warm anomalies are forecast in Puerto Rico.

Nearly all of Canada can expect warmer than normal temperatures. Anomalies will be moderate in most southern regions of the provinces, but severe anomalies are forecast in the provinces’ northern extents, and extreme to exceptional anomalies in Quebec and Labrador. Temperatures will be warmer than normal in Northwest Territories and Nunavut, exceptionally hotter in eastern Nunavut.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released October 2, 2022 which includes forecasts for October 2022 through June 2023 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued September 24 through September 30, 2022.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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