ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List October 2022

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST OCTOBER 2022

14 October 2022

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in July 2022 and running through June 2023 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List October 14, 2022 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through December indicates widespread water deficits from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf, and from New Jersey into northern Florida and the Deep South. Deficits will be moderate overall but intense in several areas including southern Minnesota into the Central Plains.

Canada: The forecast through December indicates areas of intense water deficit in every region and moderate deficits in southern Saskatchewan, southern Alberta, and southern Ontario. Pockets of surplus are expected in southern British Columbia and widespread surpluses in northwestern Saskatchewan.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through December indicates conditions like the prior three months - pockets of intense water deficit in Mexico from Tamaulipas through Puebla, and surpluses in Central America, extreme in central Honduras.

South America: The forecast through December includes water deficits in Chile, the Pampas, Uruguay, the northern Orinoco Watershed, and Amapá, Roraima, western Amazonas, and the Trombetas River in Brazil.

Europe: The forecast through December indicates that water deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably. Anomalies will be widespread, however, from northern Spain through much of France south of the Allier River and in northern Italy.

Africa: The forecast through December indicates widespread water surpluses from Burkina Faso through southern Sudan, dipping south, with intense anomalies in Chad and northern Nigeria. Deficits are expected in northwest Africa, northern Sudan, and parts of the Horn.

Middle East: The forecast through December indicates widespread water deficits in Iran, exceptional in parts of Fars and Kerman, and intense deficits in Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, southern Oman, and Georgia. Surpluses are expected near Konya and Lake Tuz in Turkey.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through December indicates intense water deficits in eastern Tajikistan and Russia’s Sverdlovsk and Novosibirsk Oblasts, and moderate deficits in Turkmenistan and Mangystau, Kazakhstan. Surpluses will persist from the Western Siberian Plain into the Yenisei Basin.

South Asia: The forecast through December indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in Pakistan and into eastern Afghanistan. Surpluses will also be widespread in India, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Deficits are forecast in Assam, northern Rajasthan, southeastern Pakistan, and northern Afghanistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through December indicates that widespread water surpluses will persist, intense in many areas including eastern Thailand through central Cambodia. Normal conditions will return to the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra’s northern half.

East Asia: The forecast through December indicates widespread water deficits in the Yangtze Watershed, Southeast China, and Taiwan. Widespread surpluses will persist in the Yellow River Basin, North China Plain, Northeast China, and North Korea.

Australia & New Zealand:  The forecast through December indicates that water surpluses will increase in eastern Australia and emerge in the nation’s far north. Surpluses are forecast from Wide Bay-Burnett, Queensland into Victoria, and will be especially widespread in New South Wales.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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