South Asia: Intense water surplus will persist in Pakistan

21 October 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2023 indicates that exceptional surpluses will cover most of central and southern Pakistan and surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the north. In Afghanistan, severe to extreme surpluses are forecast east of the Helmand River, becoming exceptional in pockets of the south. Moderate deficits are forecast in the north and a few pockets in the southwest.

Water surpluses will be widespread in much of central, southern, and western India. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the vast Godavari River Basin, and in Karnataka, western Maharashtra, southern Madhya Pradesh, and southern Rajasthan. In northern India, surpluses are predicted from northeastern Haryana through Jammu and Kashmir, intense in the far north.

In the Ganges Plain, deficits of varying intensity are expected in northern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Exceptional anomalies will follow the Ganges through Bihar. Deficits are also predicted in India’s Far Northeast, exceptional in central Assam, and in the nation’s southern tip in Tamil Nadu. Nearby in Sri Lanka, however, surpluses are forecast in the southwest.

Surpluses of varying intensity are expected throughout much of Bangladesh leading through Indian states to the east. Anomalies will be intense in northeastern and far northern Bangladesh. Nepal can expect surpluses as well, exceptional in the Gandaki River Basin in the center of the nation. Surpluses are forecast for Bhutan’s western half.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that widespread, exceptional surpluses will persist in Pakistan. Some transitional conditions (pink/purple) are also expected, and deficits in the southwest. In Afghanistan, intense surpluses are forecast east of the Helmand River, transitions in the south, and deficits in the north and pockets of the southwest. Surpluses will be widespread in central, southern, far northern, and western India. While Rajasthan’s northern half can expect deficits, extreme to exceptional surpluses are forecast in the center of the state. Surpluses of similar intensity are forecast in Karnataka. Deficits will shrink in India’s Far Northeast, persisting in central Assam, and pockets of deficit will linger in Bihar. Surpluses are expected throughout Bangladesh, Nepal, and western Bhutan, intense in northeastern Bangladesh and central Nepal. In Sri Lanka, surpluses are forecast in the southwest.

From January through March 2023, exceptional surpluses will continue in Pakistan, shrinking in the north. Surpluses in Afghanistan will shrink and downgrade and deficits in both nations will retreat. In India, surpluses will shrink overall but remain widespread from southern Rajasthan to the central coast on the Bay of Bengal and in the southern Deccan Plateau. Transitional conditions are forecast along the Arabian Sea Coast. Anomalies will remain intense in central Rajasthan and central Karnataka. Moderate deficits are forecast in Assam and a pocket in south-central Sri Lanka. Surpluses will continue in Bangladesh and Indian states to the east, and in Nepal and western Bhutan.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2023 – indicates exceptional surpluses in Pakistan, moderate surpluses in central Nepal, and surpluses of varying intensity in western, central, and southern India. Deficits are forecast in Assam.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
After widespread flooding in September, described as the worst in a decade, much of Pakistan’s farmland remains waterlogged. Though September rainfall was moderate, torrential precipitation in the prior two months triggered the flooding that, unlike other flood events, inundated areas with no natural ability to drain. Authorities have sliced into infrastructure to divert water back into rivers and farmers are operating pumps.

In Sindh Province, where standing water has done the most damage, forecasters estimate losses of 88 percent of the cotton crop, 80 percent of the rice crop, and 60 percent of the sugar cane crop. The nation has lost 1.1 million livestock in the disaster, increasing food insecurity. Global humanitarian agencies predict that 14.6 million people will need emergency food assistance from December through March.

In cascading disasters, waterborne diseases and skin infections are on the rise and 1,700 clinics and hospitals were destroyed or damaged. In Sindh, 30,000 people received medical attention in one 24-hour period.

Nationally, the death toll since June from flooding has reached 1,719.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags