Middle East: Water deficits forecast in Riyadh

22 October 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending June 2023 indicates widespread water deficits in Saudi Arabia, Iraq west of the Euphrates River, the Levant, and several regions in Turkey.

On the Arabian Peninsula, deficits will be moderate to severe overall in Saudi Arabia, but exceptional in a pocket on the northern coast of the Red Sea and in the nation’s southeast corner leading through the United Arab Emirates. Surpluses are forecast in the southwest well into Yemen, and deficits are expected in Yemen’s southwest and east as transitions occur.

Deficits will be moderate in much of the Levant but more intense in Jordan; severe to extreme in Iraq west of the Euphrates; and moderate in southern Iraq.

In Turkey, deficits are predicted in the south and west and near Lake Van in the east. Anomalies will be intense near the city of Konya. Intense deficits are also forecast in Georgia in the cities of Batumi and Tbilisi, while surpluses are expected south of the Kura River. Moderate deficits are predicted in pockets of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Iran can expect relatively normal conditions overall, though some deficits are forecast in the far north and northeast, the central Lut Desert, and Bushehr Province on the Persian Gulf. Surpluses are expected in the southeast.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates widespread deficits in the bulk of Iran, moderate overall but with exceptional pockets including in Fars and Kerman Provinces. Generally moderate deficits are predicted for southern Iraq and west of Karbala in central Iraq. On the Arabian Peninsula, deficits will be widespread in central Saudi Arabia, extreme in southern Riyadh Province, while transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast in the west and in the south where surpluses are also expected. Mixed conditions are forecast in Yemen; intense deficits in southern Oman and moderate deficits in Al Wusta Governate; and deficits of varying intensity in UAE and Qatar.

In Turkey, surpluses are expected north of Konya, from Lake Tuz into the Kizilirmak River Watershed, and in Rize Province on the Black Sea. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Upper Ceyhan River region of Central Anatolia, and deficits of greater intensity in Turkey’s far northeast corner leading through much of Georgia.

From January through March 2023, near-normal conditions are expected to return to much of the Middle East. However, deficits will persist in Georgia, southern Riyadh Province, and Al Wusta, Oman, and will emerge near Istanbul and in eastern Azerbaijan. Areas with a forecast of surplus include central Syria, northwestern and north-central Yemen, and Golestan Province in northeastern Iran.

In the final quarter – April through June 2023 – deficits will increase in the region, mild to moderate overall but severe in Saudi Arabia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Iran’s Tehran Province, precipitation for the 2021-2022 water year that ended in September was 25 percent lower than the prior water year. Dams in Tehran are 20 percent lower, while water consumption in the city reached a record level in mid-October, surpassing peak summer use. By early May of this year, drought had already cost Iran 28 trillion rials (US $107 million) according to a federal environmental official.

Over 3,000 Iraqi families in eight governates have left their homes, forced out by drought conditions. In the Mesopotamian Marshes, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in the south, 1,200 families have left parched farmlands in just the past six months. And in the north, the exodus has been particularly high in Diyala Governate.

Drought and high temperatures are drying up Georgia’s vineyards. Since 2013, the nation’s wine exports have increased, ending up primarily in the Russian market, though covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have taken a bite out of the business. But the industry is also facing higher temperatures and drier conditions that have made it nearly impossible for vineyards to succeed without irrigation.

Some Georgian wheat farmers, part of an effort to reduce the country’s dependence on imported Russian wheat, are beginning a return to native wheat varieties. Though the ancient strains produce lower yields, many are more resistant to drought and pests than industrial varieties.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags